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20 августа, 22:58

China's Plunge Protection Team Holds $150 Billion In Stock, Claims "State Meddling" Stabilizes Markets

It was two years ago, in June of 2015, when just as the Shanghai Composite was flirting with 5,000 and when literally the local banana stand guy was trading stocks, that the Chinese stock bubble burst, unleashing an unprecedented selling spree, a 40% drop in just two months, and Beijing's nationalization of the stock market, courtesy of the domestic plunge protection team, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also known as the "National Team". The decision by local authorities to effectively shut down price discovery had a huge confidence crushing impact on local investor confidence. As Gavekal Research put it overnight, "the lack of trust was crystallized by the decision in the summer of 2015 to “shut down” the equity markets for a while and stop trading in any stock that looked like it was heading south. That decision confirmed foreign investors’ apprehension about China and in their eyes set back renminbi internationalization by several years, if not decades." Understandably, with the realization that China (or any other nation for that matter), no longer has a an efficient, discounting stock market, but merely a policy tool meant to inspire confidence on the way up, and punish short sellers and "speculators" on the way down, the China Securities Regulatory Commission kept a low profile: after all why remind traders and investors that the local market only exists in the imaginations of several Beijing bureaucrats who sit down every day to decide the "fair value" of all market-traded equities. That changed last week, when for the first time in years, the Chinese Plunge Protection Team broke its silence and said that "state meddling has successfully stabilized China’s US$7 trillion stock market by curbing volatility and steering valuations to rational levels." For those stunned by the idiocy in the circular statement above, don't worry it's not just you: China indeed just said that the local market has become more efficient as a result of more manipulation. What is far more shocking, however, is that most central bankers around the world would agree with this statement. As SCMP adds, in this rare move to comment on the market performance, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement on its website on Tuesday that the gauges tracking the nation’s big-cap blue-chip stocks beat the world’s other major benchmarks such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and UK’s FTSE 100 Index in the first seven months of the year. In spite of the outperformance, the valuations were still lower than the global peers, it said. It did not say that the "valuations" would be whatever the CSRC decided they should be, and not a penny less or more. That much was assumed. Here are some striking facts showing what state intervention in quote-unquote markets looks like: within the 140 trading days in the period, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index had not closed up or down by more than 2% and registered only eight days with daily movement exceeding 1 per cent, the CSRC said in the statement. Clearly unaware of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and what "price discovery" means, the Chinese regulator produly attributed the tame market performance to state-linked funds, which were created during the equity crash in 2015 to shore up stocks, and said maintaining market stability was the pre-condition for carrying out reforms. In other words, China's stock market will never again be allowed to suffer a crash, and in the process, the whole concept of a fair and efficient market has been thrown out of the window. “The CSRC has put the prevention against financial risks at a more important position and taken a series of strong measures to rid any potential risks in collaboration with relevant departments,’’ the regulator said in the statement. To be sure, nothing about the above statement is a surprise: even after the 2015 market rout that almost erased $5 trillion in market value, the state funds, also known as the "national team", continue to frequently interfere and meddle in the market, usually in the last hour of trading when an "inexplicable" force sends the stock from sharply lower to just barely in the green, in the process "restoring confidence" in the stock market, or so they think. The most prominent case this year was January 16, when the Shanghai Composite almost recouped an intraday loss of as much as 2.2 per cent in the last 30 minutes of trading to end the day only 0.3 per cent lower. The miraculous recovery happened shortly after Beijing ordered "no market selloffs during Xi Jinping's Davos Trip, and sure enough... ... that's precisely what happened. Unlike the US, China is not ashamed to admit that there is no such thing as "price discovery" in its stock market, where everything is a function of daily government intervention. State-linked funds, mainly operated by China Securities Finance and Central Huijin investment, are estimated to hold stocks worth about 1 trillion yuan (US$150 billion) now, according to fund tracker Howbuy. And if Beijing has to hold 1 trillion yuan in stocks when the "market" is stable, one wonder what will happen when things start turmoiling once again: will Beijing simply nationalize the entire stock market during the next market crash? Meanwhile, it did not take long for the adverse consequence of China manipulating its market to emerge: while state intervention reduced price swings in what until recently was the world’s most volatile emerging stock market, it has come at a cost of waning trading activities among retail investors, who make up 80% of transactions. The number of new investors is growing at the slowest pace in almost two years, and turnovers remain down 80% from the all-time high, as nobody has any confidence or trust left in any displayed "price." Just like in the US, the 100-day volatility on the Shanghai Composite fell to a record low of 8.6 in May and it currently stands at 9.3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China’s CSI 300 Index of the nation’s 300 most valuable companies climbed 13 per cent in the January-to-July period, outpacing Dow Jones Industrial’s 11 per cent gain and FTSE 100 ’s 3.2 per cent advance. As long as China, along with every other central bank, continues to supress volatility artificially, it is unlikely that any major market turmoils will emerge. The flipside is that the longer China, and other developed nations, kick to can on realizing fair market value, the more dire the collapse will be when (or maybe if) price discovery is once again permitted.

20 августа, 05:29

Gavekal On The Coming Clash Of Empires: Russia's Role As A Global Game-Changer

Submitted by Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research Carthago Est Delenda “Carthage must be destroyed”. Cato the elder would conclude his speeches in the Roman Senate with the admonition that salt should be spread on the ruins of Rome’s rival. Listening to the US media over these summer holidays from Grand Lake, Oklahoma, it is hard to escape the conclusion that most of the American media, and US congress, feels the same way about Russia. Which is odd given that the Cold War supposedly ended almost 30 years ago. But then again, a quick study of history shows that clashes between land and sea-based empires have been a fairly steady constant of Western civilization. Think of Athens versus Sparta, Greece versus Persia, Rome versus Carthage, England versus Napoleon, and more recently the US versus Germany and Japan (when World War II saw the US transform itself from a land-based empire to a sea-based empire in order to defeat Germany and Japan), and of course the more recent contest between the US and the Soviet Union. The maritime advantage Such fights have been staples of history books, from Plutarch to Toynbee. Victory has mostly belonged to the maritime empires as they tend to depend more on trade and typically promote more de-centralized structures; land-based empires by contrast usually repress individual freedoms and centralize power. Of course the maritime power does not always win; Cato the elder did after all get his wish posthumously. With this in mind, consider a mental map of the productive land masses in the world today. Very roughly put, the world currently has three important zones of production, with each accounting for about a third of world GDP. North and South America: This is a sort of island and is not reachable by land from the rest of the world. It constitutes the heart of what could be called the current “maritime” empire. Europe ex-Russia: This is an economic and technological power as large as the US but a military minnow. Its last two wars have been fought between the then dominant maritime power (the US), first against Germany, then the Soviet Union to gain the control of the so called “old continent”. A resurgent Asia: Here China is playing the role of the “land-based challenger” to the “maritime hegemon”. A visiting Martian who knew little about our global geopolitical make-up, except for the above history books, would likely conclude that a new version of the age-old drama is being set up. This time, however the contest would be between a China-dominated “land-based empire” and a US controlled “maritime power”, with Europe (and to a lesser extent Africa) as the likely “prize.” To have a chance in the fight, the continental empire would have to “keep” a massive land mass under its control. This would require building extensive lines of communication (rail, roads, telecoms, satellites…), linking its own land-mass to the other “productive” land masses, avoiding as much as possible the use of sea links to communicate with other nations. The land empire would need to develop an economy which would not need to trade through the seas. This is what is happening today and why we gave carte blanche to Tom Miller, leaving him free to roam through Central Asia and Eastern Europe over a couple of years and report on the capital that China was pouring to build such links (readers who have not done so should pick up a copy of Tom’s book, China’s Asian Dream, available at all good bookstores and of course, through our website). Now for China’s “dream of empire” to work, China would need to convince two important countries, and maybe three, to at least become “neutral”, instead of quasi-hostile, for these new communications lines to work. Those two countries are Russia and Germany. The 3rd is Saudi Arabia, which has an interesting hand to play. 1. Russia Russia is the main land bridge between China and Europe. So logic says that the US should be very nice to Russia and seek to establish some kind of military alliance, if only to control the movement of people and goods between China and Europe, and from Europe to China. However, in its immense wisdom, the US Senate and the entire US diplomatic corps have decided that America’s interests are best served by imposing sanctions on Russia for crimes—not even proven at the time of writing—that the Central Intelligence Agency routinely commits inside countries that are nominally allies of the US! It seems that US policymakers have forgotten Lord Palmerston’s dictum that nations don’t have friends, just permanent interests. And instead of following policies to maximize its national interest, the US would rather cut off its nose to spite its face. The end result is that the US seems to be  working as hard as possible to make Russia join forces with China. But why would the US so consciously make an enemy out of Russia? A starting point is that it is a little odd that a country that cannot conceivably be invaded spends more on defense then the next ten nations combined (see chart overleaf). It is also odd that the US has been involved in wars, somewhere around the globe, with very few interruptions, ever since President Dwight Eisenhower warned his countrymen about the growing clout of the “US military industrial complex”. Of course, we fully realize that even mentioning the “US military industrial complex’ makes one sound like some kind of tin-potted, conspiracy-theorist prone loon. This is not our intention. But we do want to  highlight that, in order to justify a budget of US$622bn, soon heading to US$800bn, the US military industrial complex needs a bogey-man. Now the natural bogey-man should logically be China. After all, China is now sporting the second biggest military budget in the world (US$192bn in 2016), is rapidly expanding its global presence (Belt and Road, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Silk Road Fund) and increasingly treats the South China Sea as a mare nostrum. Still, the past few months of broad US hysteria toward Russia make it fairly clear that US military interests would rather pick on Russia then China. Why so? The first, and most obvious explanation, is simply institutional inertia. After all, Russia was the main enemy between 1945 and 1991 and entire institutions were built (NATO, OECD, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank) with either the stated, or unstated, goal of containing Russia’s influence. Such government-led institutions usually turn around as easily as a cruise ship captained by Francesco Schettino. Predictable France There are historical precedents for this. Take France as an example: from Cardinal Richelieu onward, the sole purpose of French diplomacy was to destroy the Austro-Hungarian empire. This left successive French rulers blind to the rise of Prussia; at least until 1870 and the pummeling of Paris. Still, even after losing Alsace and Lorraine, France continued its anti-Habsburg crusade until 1919, and the final destruction of the Austrian empire with the 1919 Versailles treaty. This treaty left France vulnerable should the Russians and Germans ever ally (a key policy goal of the Habsburgs was to prevent such an alliance) or the Brits decide that they’d rather head home (which duly occurred in 1940 at Dunkirk and is perhaps happening again today). The bottom line is that the sheer force of institutional inertia means the “smartest people” are often incapable of adjusting to new realities. It happened in France, and it could easily be happening in the US today. A second explanation is that there exists tremendous resistance within the broader US community to making China a scapegoat. US corporations have huge interests in China and relatively limited exposure to Russia. Thus attempts to cast China in too bad a light are habitually met with concerted lobbying efforts (Lenin did say that the “Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them”). As no-one in the US business community cares deeply about Russia, Moscow makes for a good, “compromise bogey man”? A third explanation is tied to a theme we have discussed in the past (see The Consequences of Trump’s Syrian Strike), namely the unfolding civil war in the Middle-East between Sunnis and Shias. On the Sunni side of the war sits Saudi Arabia. On the Shia side of the war is Iran. And behind Iran stands Russia, who would like nothing more than to see the Saudi regime implode. Indeed, a collapse of the House of Saud would be an immense boon for Russia. The price of oil would likely surge (which would be great for non-Arab producers like Russia) and Europe would find itself wholly dependent on Russia for its energy supplies, thereby giving Moscow more geopolitical clout than it has enjoyed in decades. At the same time, a collapse of the House of Saud would be terrible news for US, French and British arms suppliers (for whom the Middle-Eastern monarchies are big clients) and for all big oil companies which have huge contracts in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle-East to protect. This brings us to the current make-up of the US administration which, to say the least, is somewhat skewed towards military officers (military men and the merchants of death tend to get along) and oil-men. Is it too much of a stretch to think that an administration loaded with oil and military men would, almost by default, fight Saudi Arabia’s corner? Now this may be unfair. After all, it’s not as if the first trip of the current US president was to Saudi Arabia, or as if that trip yielded many lucrative deals for US weapons manufacturers, US oil companies, and US financiers, was it? Russia as a game-changer Whatever the reason for the current anti-Russia hysteria in the US, it is now clearly in Russia’s interest for it to play a very active role in the coming Chinese efforts to reduce the power of the dominant “maritime empire”. This means that Chinese and European products will be able to travel through Russia for the foreseeable future, so avoiding possible threats created by the US navy should Washington ever act to disrupt trade between the two economic centers. The reason that the US’s approach to Russia is so short-sighted is that Russia’s role in the coming clash between the two empires may go far beyond it facilitating communication and transport across its territory. Indeed, Russia (along with Qatar and Iran) could already be helping China break the monopoly that the US has on the payment of energy all over the world through the US dollar (see The Most Important Change  And Its Natural Hedge). For the past 100 years, the US dollar has been the world’s major reserve and trading currency. Needless to say, having the ability to settle one’s (rather large) trade and budget deficits in one’s own currency is a competitive advantage of huge proportions. Greater than its edge in finance, tertiary education, technology, biotech, weapons manufacturing and agricultural productivity, this “exorbitant privilege” may be the US’s single biggest comparative advantage. Now our starting point when looking at China is that the guys who run the show in Beijing are basically control freaks. After all, what else do you expect from career technocrats steeped in Marxist theory? So with that in mind, the question every investor should ask themselves is: why would control freaks yield control of their country’s exchange rate and interest rate structure? Why liberalize the bond and currency markets? For let’s face it, there are few prices as important to an economy as the exchange rate and the interest rate. So if the politburo is willing to gradually lose control over them, it must be because it hopes to gain something better on the other side. And the something better is to transform the renminbi into Asia’s deutschemark; the “natural” trading (and eventually reserve) currency for Asia and even wider emerging markets. In fact, internationalizing the renminbi is the lynchpin on which the whole “Belt and Road” empire rollout rests. If this part fails, then China’s imperial ambitions will most likely crumble over time (for one cannot have an empire on somebody else’s dime). The rise of the renminbi Which brings us to a key change in our global monetary system that has received scant attention, namely, the recent announcement by the Hong Kong exchange that investors will soon be able to buy and settle gold contracts in renminbi (see release). This initiative has the potential to be a game-changer for the architecture of our global monetary system. Imagine being Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Sudan, Uzbekistan or any other country liable to fall foul of US foreign policy, and thus susceptible to having Washington use the dollar as a “soft weapon” (see BNP, Big Brother And The US Dollar). Then China comes along and says: “Rather than trading in dollars, which leaves us both exposed to US sanctions, and US banks’ willingness to fund our trade, let’s deal in renminbi. I can guarantee that ICBC will never pull the rug from under your feet”. If you are Russia, or Qatar (which have already signed renminbi deals for oil and natural gas), this may be an interesting proposition. However, the  question will quickly arise: “What will I do with my renminbi? Sure, I can buy goods in China, but I only need so much cheap clothing, tennis shoes, and plastic junk. What do I do with what is left over?”. And the answer to that question is that the US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency since the US offers the deepest and most liquid asset markets. From real estate (as shown by the Russia-Trump investigation), to equities, to bonds, there is no shortage of US assets that Americans will sell foreigners so that foreigners can park their hard earned dollars back into the US. This brings us back to China and the main constraint to the renminbi’s rise as a reserve currency. Simply put, foreign investors do not trust the Chinese government enough to park their excess reserves in Chinese assets. This lack of trust was crystallized by the decision in the summer of 2015 to “shut down” the equity markets for a while and stop trading in any stock that looked like it was heading south. That decision confirmed foreign investors’ apprehension about China and in their eyes set back renminbi internationalization by several years, if not decades. Until now, that is. For by creating a gold contract settled in renminbi, Russia may now sell oil to China for renminbi (already signed), then take whatever excess currency it earns to buy gold in Hong Kong. As a result, Russia does not have to buy Chinese assets or switch the proceeds into dollars (and so potentially fall under the thumb of the US Treasury). This new arrangement is good news for Russia, good news for China, good news for gold and horrible news for Saudi Arabia as it leaves the Middle-Eastern kingdom in between a rock and a hard place. 2. Saudi Arabia The fact that China wants to buy oil with its own currency will increasingly present Saudi Arabia with a dilemma. It could acknowledge that China is now the world’s largest oil importer, and only major growth market, and accept renminbi payments for its oil. However, this would go down like a lead balloon in Washington where the US Treasury would (rightly) see this as a threat to the dollar’s hegemony. In such a  scenario, it is unlikely that the US would continue to approve modern weapon sales to Saudi and the embedded “protection” of the House of Saud that comes with them. And without this US protection, who knows  which way the Sunni-Shia civil war may tip (most likely in favor of the Iran-Russia axis). Unfortunately for Saudi Arabia, the alternative is hardly attractive. Getting boxed out of the Chinese market will increasingly mean having to dump excess oil inventories on the global stage, thereby ensuring a sustained low price for oil. But with its budget deficit stuck at about 16% of GDP, with half its population below 27 and needing jobs, and with reserves shrinking by around US$10bn a month, just maintaining the current status quo is not a long-term viable option. So which way will Saudi turn? Will Riyadh accept low oil prices forever and the associated costs on Saudi society? Or will it change horse and move to accept renminbi in order to ensure more access to the world’s largest oil importer, even at the risk of triggering Washington’s wrath? Investors who like to bet on form may wish to consider the second option. Indeed, King Ibn Saud (the current King Salman's father) was once a loyal British client as the Brits had helped suppress the Wahhabi brotherhood, so cementing his power. Yet in 1936, Ibn Saud's adviser Abdullah Philby (father of British traitor Kim Philby), persuaded the king to  switch his allegiance to the US, by offering Saudis exclusive oil concession to Chevron/Texaco rather than BP. This is why the Saudi oil company is called Aramco (the Arab-American oil company) rather than Arbroco. Could the House of Saud pull off the same stunt again? One indication may be who lines up as cornerstone investors in the coming Aramco IPO. If those end up as China Investment Corporation, Petrochina and the PRC’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, than perhaps Aramco will be on its way to becoming Archoco. And with that, the pricing of Saudi oil could shift from US dollars to renminbi. Incidentally, such a move would likely solve Saudi’s biggest macro hurdle; specifically, the defense of the Saudi Riyal peg to the US dollar. Indeed, with reserves shrinking so rapidly, the arrangement looks to be on a slow-moving death watch (admittedly, at the current pace of reserve depletion, Riyadh could hold out three years and possibly five). But should Saudi announce that Aramco (or Archoco!) will now accept renminbi for oil payments, the dollar would likely tank while oil prices would shoot up (as Saudi would have a willing buyer for its oil in China). A lower US dollar/ higher oil combination would, needless to say, make the Saudi peg that much easier to sustain. Lastly, if you were King Salman and thought that the long-term sustainability of the House of Saud depended on dumping the US and engaging China, what would you be doing right now? Would you be buying as many top-end US weapons as you possibly could, knowing that, in the future, such purchases may no longer be as easy as they are today? But let us now move to the third major player in this many-part drama, namely Germany, where the situation is even more complex. 3. Germany Unencumbered by its own “heavy” history, Germany— being at heart a “continental” nation—would probably have joined the “continental alliance” and left the maritime alliance (which may explain why the “maritime alliance” tapped Angela Merkel’s phone; arguably a greater intrusion then anything the US has accused Russia of). After all, consider the advantages for Germany of joining the “land-based empire”: Politically, Germany could finally develop its own diplomacy and stop taking orders from Washington. Economically, German industry would have unlimited access to develop not only Russia but also all the populations north of the Himalayas set to join the modern world through the creation of the “New Silk Road”. Geopolitically, let us first state the obvious: a Middle-East ruled by the Sunnis under the control of the US diplomacy has not been a resounding success. Worse yet, the incredible mistakes made by the last two US administrations across the Middle-East have led to a very old religious war (Sunnis vs. Shiites) again erupting. As we write, it seems that the Russians and Iranian allies are gradually succeeding in taking the control of the Middle East. Now the return to some form of peace (under a Russia/Iranian yoke) would offer new markets for German industry, provided Germany immediately allied itself with Russia and broke away from the American sanctions imposed by the US Senate. Failing that, Germany could lose a Middle-Eastern market which has historically been important for its exporters. Domestically: A German-Russian alliance would crimp Turkey’s resurgence as Ankara would find itself isolated due to Iran and China being on its eastern borders and Russia on its northern frontiers. As a result, Turkey would most likely stop rattling Europe’s cage, which would be a boon for Merkel as Recep Tayyip Erdo?an has been a significant thorn in her side. In other words, Merkel would outsource her “Turkey problem” to Russia. Energetically, a Russian-dominated Middle East would still provide gas from Russia and oil from the Middle-East. The implication is that Germany would no longer need to have its energy imports “protected” by the maritime empire’s fleet (Merkel’s short-sightedness on the energy front, from the end of coal, to the banning of nuclear power, has fitted in the category of being “worse than a crime, it is a mistake”). Many people in Germany—business people and public servants such as ex -chancellor Gerhard Schroeder—understand the above and have lobbied for such an outcome. The recent trend of US prosecutors trying to export the supremacy of the US legal system over local ones, and imposing egregious fines on all and sundry (Deutsche Bank, Volkswagen) can only push German business leaders further down that path. Of course, as Frenchmen, we know that nothing good comes of: Germany and Russia getting along like a house on fire. Britain retreating back to its island. And we would suggest that President Emmanuel Macron is also keenly aware of this. Which explains he is so far the only Western leader to have gone out of his way to be nice to President Trump; aside from the Polish President of course (more on that later). Macron has bent over to accommodate Merkel. And let’s face it, his task is not easy. For as good as our president may be with the older ladies, he needs to convince Merkel to walk away from the above win-win and keep Germany committed to the greater European integration exercise, and Germany wedded to its role inside the broader “maritime empire”. Germany as the sole paymaster Now, to be fair, the German population has enthusiastically supported the European integration project, partly out of historical guilt (now abating as the share of the population alive in World War II fast shrinks) and partly because it has been a boon to German exporters. However, recent years have highlighted that the low hanging fruit of European integration has been harvested. And to stay afloat, the European project now needs Berlin to transfer 2%-6% of GDP to poorer, less productive, European Union countries (especially as the UK will soon stop paying into EU coffers). This is a hard sell, even for a politician as gifted as Macron. Soon, Germany may be the only meaningful contributor to French agricultural subsidies; and that is unlikely to go down well with the average Bavarian housewife. Which brings us to the only other Western leader who has publicly embraced the current incumbent of the White House, namely Polish president, Andreszj Duda. After all, History suggests that France should not be the only country worried about a German rapprochement with the new “land-based empire”. Most Eastern European countries, in particular Poland, have similar reactions to such a hook-up. In fact, threat of a German-Russian rapprochement may already be creating the birth of a new, Austro-Hungarian empire, aka the Visegrad Group alliance of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Historically, the role of the Austrian empire was to protect Europe from the Turks and also to stop an alliance between Prussia and Russia. For the time being the Visegrad group is negotiating (rather unsuccessfully) with Berlin about how to handle thousands of “Turks” (at least migrants entering Europe through Turkey, whether those migrants come from North Africa, the Middle-East, Afghanistan, Bangladesh or elsewhere is almost irrelevant). This Eastern grouping may have to address, sooner than they think, a German-Russian rapprochement. Just as importantly, the re-emergence of the Austrian empire is incompatible with the “Europe as a Nation” project. In the world we are describing Poland, followed by Hungary and the Czech Republic, may be the next countries to leave the EU. Although in so doing, the Visegrad Group would almost guarantee the feared rapprochement between  Germany and Russia. Of course the Eastern European nations would only make such a move if they were militarily guaranteed by the US. And, by an amazing coincidence, this is exactly the promise that President Trump just delivered in Warsaw! For the “maritime empire”, a loss of Germany would have to be rapidly compensated by an increased presence in Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, Lithuania and almost every country East of Berlin and West of Moscow. Of course, this is what France and England (the “maritime empires of the day”) did in the 1930s— with limited success. Conclusion History shows that maritime powers almost always have the upper hand in any clash; if only because moving goods by sea is cheaper, more efficient, easier to control, and often faster, than moving them by land. So there is little doubt that the US continues to have the advantage. Simple logic, suggests that goods should continue to be moved from Shanghai to Rotterdam by ship, rather than by rail. Unless, of course, a rising continental power wants to avoid the sea lanes controlled by its rival. Such a rival would have little choice but developing land routes; which of course is what China is doing. The fact that these land routes may not be as efficient as the US controlled sealanes is almost as irrelevant as the constant cost over-run of any major US defense projects. Both are necessary to achieve imperial status. As British historian Cyril Northcote Parkinson highlighted in his mustread East And West, empires tend to expand naturally, not out of megalomania, but simple commercial interest: “The true explanation lies in the very nature of the trade route. Having gone to all expenses involved… the rule cannot be expected to leave the far terminus in the hands of another power.” And indeed, the power that controls the end points on the trading road, and the power that controls the road, is the power that makes the money. Clearly, this is what China is trying to achieve, but trying to do so without entering into open conflict with the United States; perhaps because China knows the poor track record of continental empires picking fights with the maritime power. Still, by focusing almost myopically on Russia, the US risks having its current massive head-start gradually eroded. And obvious signs of this erosion may occur in the coming years if and when the following happens: Saudi Arabia adopts the renminbi for oil payments Germany changes its stripes and cozies up to Russia and pretty much gives up on the whole European integration charade in order to follow its own naked self-interest. The latter two events may, of course, not happen. Still, a few years ago, we would have dismissed such talk as not even worthy of the craziest of conspiracy theories. Today, however, we are a lot less sure. And our concern is that either of the above events could end up having a dramatic impact on a number of asset classes and portfolios. And the possible catalyst for these changes is China’s effort to create a renminbi-based gold market in Hong Kong. For while the key change to our global financial infrastructure (namely oil payments occurring in renminbi) has yet to fully arrive, the ability to transform renminbi into gold, without having to bring the currency back into China (assuming Hong Kong is not “really” part of China as it has its own supreme court and independent justice system… just about!) is a likely game-changer. Clearly, China is erecting the financial architecture for the above to occur. This does not mean the initiative will be a success. China could easily be sitting on a dud. But still, we should give credit to Beijing’s policymakers for their sense of timing for has there ever been a better time to promote an alternative to the US dollar? If you are sitting in Russia, Qatar, Iran, or Venezuela and listening to the rhetoric coming out of Washington, would you feel that comfortable keeping your assets, and denominating your trade, in dollars? Or would you perhaps be looking for alternatives? This is what makes today’s US policy hard to understand. Just when China is starting to offer an alternative—an alternative that the US should be trying to bury—the US is moving to “weaponize” the dollar and pound other nations—even those as geo-strategically vital as Russia—for simple domestic political reasons. It all seems so short-sighted. * * * And so, if any of the above sounds even remotely plausible, then some investments may be today grotesquely mispriced, including: SELL US, British and French defense stocks: we may be reaching peak “military industrial complex”. In the coming years, the main foreign clients of Western weapons, namely Middle-Eastern monarchies may either (i) implode or (ii) take their business to China/ Russia. Meanwhile, Western defense stocks are priced for an ever growing order book. SELL French bonds and (non-Russian) Eastern European bonds: There is little value in these bond markets and should Germany ever decide to rotate away from further European integration, they would crash. At this point, these bond markets represent “return-free risk”. BUY Russian bonds: Russian bonds may well be among the world’s cheapest, yielding almost 8% for a real yield of above 4%. This for a country with almost no external debt to speak of, huge amounts of (Chinese) capital about to pour in, and a by-now established position as the first supplier into the world’s fastest growing market for oil imports. BUY Russian energy stocks: One of two things will happen. If Saudi Arabia continues to refuse renminbi payments, Russian energy companies will end up owning the Chinese market. Alternatively, if Saudi starts to accept renminbi payments for its oil, the US dollar will take another leg-down and energy prices will rebound (ensuring a rebound in oil stocks everywhere). BUY Renminbi bonds: As China moves to create both oil and gold contracts denominated in renminbi, and as more Asian and global trade starts to be denominated in renminbi, it is hard to think that total returns on renminbi bonds will not surpass those of most Western currencies. The returns may come from falling interest rates (as a growing number of market participants are forced to keep renminbi deposits to fund trade), or rising exchange rates. Or, most likely, a combination of both. But today, very few investors, and even fewer large institutions own any renminbi bonds. In five years’ time, the situation may be very different and it may make sense to buy renminbi bonds before Saudi Arabia confirms the currency shift as by that point a lot of the gains will likely have been harvested. BUY Gold and precious metal miners: In an initial phase, most countries and market participants will likely stay skeptical of China. As such, the demand for gold, as settlement for renminbi trade, will likely pick-up. At the very least, at current valuations, gold miners can be considered an option on market participants doing more in renminbi (to please China), yet exchanging their renminbi for gold (out of a lack of trust for the new continental empire).

16 августа, 13:51

Global Stocks Rise Amid Unexpected ECB "Trial Balloon"; Dollar Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

European markets continued their risk-on mood in early trading for the third day, rising to the highest in over a week and rallying from the open led by mining stocks as industrial metals spike higher after zinc forwards hit highest level since 2007, lifting copper and nickel. The EUR sold off sharply, boosting local bond and risk prices after the previously discussed Reuters "trial balloon" report that Draghi's speech at Jackson Hole would not announce the start of the ECB's taper. The EURUSD has found support at yesterdays session low. Bunds have rallied in tandem before gilts drag core fixed income markets lower after U.K. wages data surprises to the upside. Early EUR/JPY push higher through 130.00 supports USD/JPY to come within range of 111.00. In Asia, Japan’s JGB curve was mildly steeper after the BOJ continued to reduce its purchases of 5-to-10-yr JGBs; the move was consistent with the BOJ's desire to cut back whenever markets stabilize, according to Takenobu Nakashima, strategist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo. The yen is little changed after rising just shy of 111 overnight. The S.Korean Kospi is back from holiday with gains; The PBOC weakened daily yuan fixing; injects a net 180 billion yuan with reverse repos; the Hang Seng index rose 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite closed -0.2% lower. Dalian iron ore declines one percent. Japan’s Topix index closed little changed. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.6 percent, reopening after a holiday. The Hang Seng Index added 0.8 percent in Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.5 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index was Asia’s worst performer on Wednesday, falling as much as 1.1 percent, as banks and interest-rate sensitive stocks dropped. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7%, the highest in a week.  The MSCI All-Country World Index increased 0.3%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.6%. Germany’s DAX Index jumped 0.8% to the highest in more than a week. Futures on the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.2% to the highest in a week. Global markets are finally settling down after a tumultuous few days spurred by heightened tensions between the U.S. and North Korea. Miners and construction companies led the way as every sector of the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced as core bonds across the region declined. Crude gained for the first time in three days after industry data was said to show U.S. inventories tumbled 9.2 million barrels last week. U.S. stock-index futures rise slightly with European and Asian equities and oil. Data include MBA mortgage applications and housing starts. Cisco, Target, L Brands and NetApp are among companies reporting earnings. Italian banks also outperform after HSBC make positive comments on Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit. In overnight macro, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was unchanged after two days of gains and Treasury yields edged higher as European stocks rose and investors awaited minutes of the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting. As shown in the chart below, after "Long USD" was seen as the "most crowded traded" for months until the start of Q2, the BofA Fund Manager Survey respondents now "Short USD" as the second most crowded trade. In Asia The yen slid a third day against the dollar as market participants positioned themselves ahead of the FOMC minutes and as geopolitical tensions on North Korea abated; Australia’s dollar gained for the first time in three days as traders covered short positions after second-quarter wage data matched estimates, boosting prospects of an upbeat July employment print this week. The pound rose against the dollar as a U.K. labor-market report showed wage growth exceeded the median estimate of economists and unemployment unexpectedly dropped to the lowest since 1975. The latest European data released overnight showed more nations joined the recovery as the euro-area economy gathers pace. Italy’s economy expanded for a 10th straight quarter, matching estimates of a 0.4% increase while growth in the Netherlands beat economists’ estimates. Eastern European economies including Romania, the Czech Republic and Poland also exceeded expectations, confirming that a broad-based recovery is taking hold. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 2.28 percent, the highest in more than two weeks.  Germany’s 10-year yield increased three basis points to 0.46 percent, the highest in more than a week. Britain’s 10-year yield gained four basis points to 1.121 percent, the highest in more than a week. In today's key event, minutes from the Fed meeting will be parsed closely; policy makers have indicated they may announce plans to reduce the central bank’s balance sheet in September and then potentially raise interest rates again this year. Global Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,468.90 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 379.51 MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 158.83 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.5% to 523.28 Nikkei down 0.1% to 19,729.28 Topix down 0.01% to 1,616.00 Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 27,409.07 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,246.45 Sensex up 0.7% to 31,664.31 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,785.10 Kospi up 0.6% to 2,348.26 German 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.448% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1717 Italian 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 1.756% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.469% Brent futures up 0.7% to $51.16/bbl Gold spot down 0.06% to $1,270.71 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.09% to 93.94 Overnight Top News The FOMC minutes may provide a better feel for how many policy makers remain resolved to raise interest rates again this year, and how many are wavering amid a five-month stretch of soft inflation reports Akzo Nobel NV and activist investor Elliott Management agreed to end their legal skirmishes that had dragged the two parties into acrimonious confrontations, giving new Chief Executive Officer Thierry Vanlancker some breathing space to proceed with a planned split of the Dutch paint-and-chemicals maker Uber Technologies Inc. is in exclusive talks to line up funding from four investors, but a deal, which could reach as much as $12 billion, hangs on the outcome of a courtroom brawl between two board members Apollo sweetened terms on nearly $1.8 billion of financing for its buyout of a golf country-club operator after investors pushed back on some of its plans The main derivatives trade group is considering industrywide fixes for the disarray that the demise of Libor could bring to more than $350 trillion of markets China reclaimed its position as the top foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries after increasing its holdings for the fifth straight month UBS Group AG is proposing to charge clients about $40,000 a year to access basic equity research once new regulations known as MiFID II come into effect in January Fed’s Fischer: Will probably be a break between announcement of unwinding of QE and the start of the process; Fed could always press pause if unanticipated circumstances arise: FT ECB President Mario Draghi will not deliver a new policy message at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, Reuters reports, citing two unidentified people familiar with the situation Efforts to loosen constraints on banks 10 years after financial crisis are "dangerous and extremely short-sighted," Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer says in FT interview Kaplan repeats Fed should be patient on timing of next hike; should start balance sheet unwind very soon ECB’s Hansson: Wage pressures are beginning to emerge despite low inflation in the euro area but are “very uneven” across the bloc Trump Again Drags GOP Onto Dangerous Ground, This Time Over Race Euro-area GDP rose 0.6% q/q in 2Q, in line with the median estimate of economists, and was supported by continued growth in Germany, the region’s largest economy, and the strongest Spanish performance in almost two years Holders of credit-default swaps in Banco Popular Espanol SA still haven’t been compensated after the bank’s junior notes were wiped out in Europe’s first forced sale of a failing lender under its new resolution regime German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble doesn’t share opinion of German Federal Constitutional Court about ECB policy, Handelsblatt reports Bank of Japan cut purchases of bonds maturing in five to 10 years by 30 billion yen ($270 million) to 440 billion yen at its regular debt-buying operations on Wednesday The 220 billion-krone ($28 billion) Government Pension Fund Norway, the domestic counterpart of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, is cutting risk as big active bets have lost their luster API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude -9.2m; Cushing +1.7m; Gasoline +0.3m; Distillates -2.1m BOJ cuts purchases of 5-to-10 year bonds by 30 billion yen Urban Outfitters Gains After Smaller Chains Prop Up Results Netflix Co-Founder to Sell Ads to Pay for $10 Movie Pass Italian Economy Expands, Boosting Optimism on Recovery Asia equity markets followed from the indecisive tone seen on Wall Street where quiet newsflow kept stocks rangebound. This resulted to a mixed picture in Asia with the ASX 200 (+0.48%) subdued by several earnings releases, while Nikkei 225 (-0.12%) traded choppy amid a lack of drivers. KOSPI (+0.60%) welcomed the reduced geopolitical tensions on return from holiday, while Shanghai Comp (-0.15%) and Hang Seng (+0.86%) were mixed after lending declined from the prior month and although still surpassed estimates, it was another notch to add to the recent slew of softer Chinese data releases. 10yr JGBs were marginally higher amid an indecisive risk tone in the region, although gains were capped amid a reserved Rinban announcement in which the BoJ continued to reduce its purchases of 5yr-10yr maturities.PBoC injected CNY 150bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 130bln in 14-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6779 (Prey. 6.6689). Top Asian News Thailand Keeps Key Rate Unchanged as It Warns of Baht Risk Taiwan President Apologizes for Blackout Affecting Millions Ex-Nomura Man Exiled in Chicago Goes Hostile at Tiny Japan Firms As Good as It Gets: Iron Ore Risks a Reversal as China Cools China Honqqiao Seals Citic Stake and Confirms Capacity Cuts Institutional Investors Oppose Hong Kong’s Dual-Class Share Plan Vietnam Rubber Group Expects to Hold IPO in Dec. European equities have traded higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%) since the get-go despite a quiet start to the session with sentiment later bolstered by the latest ECB source reports. Gains on a sector specific stand-point have been relatively broad-based with materials recovering from recent losses. The most notable individual mover has been AP Moller Maersk (+2%) who initially opened lower amid disappointing earnings before reversing course after the CEO managed to provide an upbeat commentary on the Co. Source reports indicate that ECB Draghi will not deliver fresh policy message at Jackson Hole and wants to hold off on debate until Autumn. Paper was initially hampered by the modest upside in European equities before European bonds were supported by the aforementioned ECB source reports. Peripheral bonds used the source reports as an opportunity to tighten to their core counterparts given the potential for more accommodative monetary policy. However, prices overall then began to reverse once again as UK Gilts dragged paper lower in the wake of the promising UK jobs report. Top European News Euro Whipsaws on Report Draghi May Hold Off at Jackson Hole Aviva, China Resources Are Said to Mull U.K. Wind Farm Bids Derivatives Group Looks at Industrywide Cure for Libor’s Demise U.K. Wage Growth Beats Forecasts But Still Lags Inflation Zinc Smashes Through $3,000 Barrier as Metals Rally Gathers Pace Danone ‘Extreme’ Cost Actions May Hamper Volume Recovery: Citi In overnight currency markets, the GBP has once again been a key source of focus for markets amid the latest UK jobs report. GBP was bolstered and approached 1.2900 to the upside amid the firmer than expected earnings numbers, unexpected fall in unemployment rate and fall in the claimant count rates; albeit wages still lag inflation by quite a distance. Elsewhere, EUR has faced some selling-pressure (EUR/USD back below 1.1750) in the wake of the latest ECB source comments with sources suggesting that Draghi will not use next week's Jackson Hole Symposium to communicate a change in stance with markets and will instead hold-off until the Autumn. Elsewhere, the USD remains relatively steady with markets awaiting the latest FOMC minutes release. Yesterday saw the greenback outperform after strong retail sales data, which took the spot rate above 94.00 briefly. This morning, the USD-index is relatively flat, which may well be the case for much of the day ahead of the FOMC minutes later this evening. AUD firmer amid cross related buying AUD/NZD which broke back above 1.08, subsequently taking the spot above 0.7850. Wage price index remaining firm, which also comes ahead of tonight's employment figures, of note, large options are keeping AUD anchored with 1.86b1n at 0.7830 and 910mln at 0.7875. Attention will be placed on both CAD and MXN as NAFTA renegotiations get underway, as it stands the Trump administration aim to shrink the rising trade deficit with Mexico and tighten the rules of origin for cars and parts. Elsewhere, CAD is slightly firmer as oil prices stabilise following last night's sizeable drawdown in the API report. Commodity markets have seen WTI and Brent crude futures hold onto gains seen in the wake of last night's API report which revealed a notable 9.155m1n draw (and came in the context of last week's 7.839m1n draw). Elsewhere, Gold has been modestly hampered by the broad risk-sentiment with markets also keeping half an eye out for tonight's FOMC minutes release. Overnight, mild short-covering helped copper pare some of yesterday's losses. Looking at the day ahead, preliminary 2Q GDP stats for the Eurozone (0.6% qoq, 2.1% yoy expected) and Italy (0.4% qoq and 1.5% yoy expected) are due this morning. Then for UK, we have the July jobless claims and claimant count rate and the June ILO unemployment data (4.5% expected). Across the pond, we get the FOMC meeting minutes along with the July housing starts (1,225k expected) and MBA mortgage applications stats. Onto other events, the NAFTA talks between US, Canada and Mexico kicks off in Washington today. Furthermore, Target and Cisco will report their results today. Looking at the day ahead, we get the FOMC meeting minutes along with the July housing starts (1,225k expected) and MBA mortgage applications stats. Onto other events, the NAFTA talks between US, Canada and Mexico kicks off in Washington today. Furthermore, Target and Cisco will report their results today. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.0% 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.22m, prior 1.22m; Housing Starts MoM, est. 0.41%, prior 8.3% 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.25m, prior 1.25m; Building Permits MoM, est. -1.96%, prior 7.4% 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Although I'm generally a bit more relaxed about the UK's future post Brexit than most of my colleagues in research, I was amused at a comment on twitter yesterday in light of the UK's decision to silence London's iconic Big Ben for 4 years as of next Monday as repairs are made. The comment suggested that how could the UK Parliament expect repairs of a clock to take 4 years while expecting whole Brexit negotiations to be done in 18 months? A fair point. So if you're a regular visitor to London don't expect to hear any bongs for the next few years. Apparently it's all about health and safety for the ears of the repairers. Thankfully after last night, hopefully Liverpool will still be in Europe for a few more weeks and months whatever happens with our negotiations. Talking of Brexit and DB research, yesterday Oliver Harvey updated his thoughts after the UK government released a position paper on customs arrangements after Brexit. The paper clarifies that UK intends to remain part of the EU customs union in all but name after March 2019 for a time-limited transitional period. Further, it sets out two potential options for the UK’s future customs relationship with the EU27, one involving a hard border and the other proposing a new and untested  customs partnership arrangement. Harvey notes the paper fails to address future trade in services, or the apparent contradiction between desire for unchanged customs arrangements during a transitional deal and PM May’s stated red line on ECJ jurisdiction after March 2019. Moreover, he argues that the absence of any mention of legal enforceability and product standards is particularly puzzling as non-tariff barriers are typically a larger obstacle to trade than tariffs and the need to ensure harmonized regulatory standards during a transitional deal and afterwards will be one of the key challenges for policymaking. More details here The fact that we haven't yet mentioned North Korea suggests that it was another day of no news which is obviously good for markets. The unpredictability of the main players in this stand-off mean that markets will likely want a fair few days of more calm before they return markets back to their pre "fire and fury" tweet levels. Having said that we saw equities generally edge higher yesterday with larger increases in bond yields. The UST 10y was up 5bps overnight, following the higher than expected retail sales data (discussed later). Core European government bond yields also increased c3bps at the longer end of the curve, with Bunds (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +3bps) and OATs (2Y: +2bps; 10Y: +3bps) reversing some of the recent safe haven move. Gilts outperformed a little (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +1bps), following the lower than expected July inflation data (discussed later). Elsewhere, peripheral bond yields also increased with Italian BTPs (2Y: +2bps; 10Y: +4bps) and Portugal (2Y: +1bps; 10Y: +4bps) slightly under performing. This morning in Asia, markets are generally slightly higher with China underperforming. The Nikkei (+0.02%), Kospi (+0.5%), Hang Seng (+0.4%) are higher with Chinese bourses ranging from -0.3% to +0.2% as we type. Back to the markets yesterday, US equities were broadly unchanged, with the S&P (-0.1%), the Dow (+0.02%) and the Nasdaq (-0.1%) taking a breather after yesterday's rally. Within the S&P, modest gains in the utilities and consumer staples sector were broadly offset by losses in Telco (-1%) and consumer discretionary (-0.9%) names. European markets were slightly higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1%, the DAX (+0.1%) and both the FTSE and CAC up 0.4%. Within the Stoxx, modest gains in utilities (+0.5%) and health care were largely offset by losses in energy and materials. Turning to currency, the USD dollar index gained 0.5%, following the stronger than expected retail sales data. Conversely, the Euro/USD fell 0.4%, but Sterling/ USD fell a bit more (-0.7%), impacted by the UK’s inflation data. Elsewhere, Euro/Sterling continues to gain (+0.4%), up for the fourth consecutive day and edging higher again this morning, effectively marking the highest point since November 09. In commodities, WTI oil was broadly flat yesterday but is up 0.4% this morning following API reporting lower US crude inventories. Elsewhere, gold fell 0.8% and silver was down 2.6%, while the industrial metals were little changed (Copper -0.1%; Aluminium -1.3%). Agricultural commodities were broadly softer this morning, with corn (-0.1%), wheat and soybeans (-0.2%), cotton (-0.9%), sugar (-2.7%) and coffee (-3.5%). Away from markets, the IMF has revised up China’s growth outlook compared to last year’s report, now expecting the growth between 2017 and 2021 to average 6.4% (vs. 6% previous), partly given that China continues to transition to a more sustainable growth path and reforms have advanced across a wide domain. The paper also noted that given the solid growth momentum, now is the time to intensify deleveraging efforts and boost domestic consumption. The report expects non-financial sector debt (includes household, corporate and government) to continue to rise strongly, up from 242% of GDP in 2016 to ~300% by 2022, which raises concerns for a possible sharp decline in growth in the medium term. The minutes for the July FOMC meeting will be out later today, our US economists expect the Committee to remain on course to announce the commencement of its balance sheet unwind at the September 20 meeting. However, there is likely to be a healthy debate regarding the inflation outlook as several policymakers have indicated that improvement in near-term inflation trends will be crucial to the prospects of another interest rate hike by year end. Elsewhere, the Trump administration has made no decision yet to stop or continue making payments to insurers (cost sharing reduction) to help lowincome people to afford their Obamacare plans. That said, the Congressional budget office did indicate that ending such payments could raise billions of dollars over the next decade for the government. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, macro data were broadly stronger than expected. The July retail sales were materially higher than expected, both at the headline and core level. Headline was 0.6% mom (vs. 0.3% consensus, but in line with DB’s forecast) and ex-auto was 0.5% mom (vs. 0.3% expected). Notably, these readings also follow positive revisions to the prior month. The July result together with revisions means that through-year growth improved across all aggregates, with ex-auto spending up 3.8% yoy. Elsewhere, the empire manufacturing survey came in at 25.2 (vs. 10.0 expected), the best reading since September 2014, the NAHB housing market index was 68 (vs. 64 expected). The June business inventories was slightly higher than expected at 0.5% mom (vs. 0.4%) and July import price index was in line at 0.1% mom. Over in Germany, the preliminary 2Q GDP was lower than expected at 0.6% qoq (vs. 0.7% expected). However, this follows a positive +0.1% revision to the 1Q reading, leaving a solid annual growth reading of 2.1% yoy (vs. 1.9% expected). According to DB’s Schneider, both the 1Q and 2Q 2017 readings and the data revisions confirm our story that overheating risks in Germany are on the rise in 2018 and that recent confidence data does not suggest that the German economy will decelerate much in 3Q. In the UK, July inflation data was slightly lower than expected, dampening concerns that high inflation readings might cause the BoE to soon tighten monetary policy settings. CPI was -0.1% mom (vs. 0% expected) and 2.4% yoy for core inflation (vs. 2.5%). However, the July retail price index was slightly ahead at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and 3.6% yoy (vs. 3.5%). Meanwhile pipeline inflation appears to have peaked, with the core PPI outputs index rising 2.4% yoy in July (vs. 2.5% expected), the least since February. Looking at the day ahead, preliminary 2Q GDP stats for the Eurozone (0.6% qoq, 2.1% yoy expected) and Italy (0.4% qoq and 1.5% yoy expected) are due this morning. Then for UK, we have the July jobless claims and claimant count rate and the June ILO unemployment data (4.5% expected). Across the pond, we get the FOMC meeting minutes along with the July housing starts (1,225k expected) and MBA mortgage applications stats. Onto other events, the NAFTA talks between US, Canada and Mexico kicks off in Washington today. Furthermore, Target and Cisco will report their results today.

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15 августа, 22:04

China's $9 Trillion Shadow Banking System Shrinks For The First Time In 9 Months

On the surface, the latest Chinese credit data reported overnight by the PBOC was not particularly memorable: new loans tumbled from the near record 1.540TN Yuan in June to only 825.5BN in July, just above the 820BN expected, while Total Social Financing also declined substantially from June's 1.78TN to 1.22TN, also beating the 1TN estimate. While both July prints were a steep drop from June - reflected in Monday's miss in retail sales, industrial production and capex - they were a significant increase from the year ago numbers. At the same M2 dropped to a new record low, sliding from June's 9.4% to 9.2% in July, missing expectations of a modest rebound to 9.5%. And while there are more details on the various constituent components below, there was one remarkable aspect to last night's number: for the first time in 9 months China's $9 trillion Shadow Banking Industry - defined as the sum of Trust Loans, Entrusted Loans and Undiscounted Bank Loans - contracted. These three key components combined resulted in a 64BN yuan drain in credit from China's economy, the first negative print since October, seen by analysts as more evidence that Beijing’s campaign to contain shadow banking and quash risks to the financial system, is starting to bear fruit. At the same time, conventional forms of crediting enjoyed a surge, with net corporate bond issuance jumping as non-financial corporations opt for cheaper sources of finance than borrowing in the shadow banking sector, where costs have soared amid the government crackdown on shadow banks: in July Corporate Bond issuance jumped by 284BN following June's 17BN contraction. This was the highest monthly increase since November. Furthermore, while on the surface TSF declined sequentially (if not year over year), there was RMB 754 bn issuance of local government bonds in July compared with RMB 461 bn in June, according to WIND data. After including this local government bond net issuance, total adjusted TSF stock grew at 14.8% yoy in July, higher than 14.2% in June. The implied month-on-month growth of adjusted TSF was 21.1% SA ann, higher than 9.7% in June according to Goldman estimates, suggesting that while the government may be phasing out shadow debt, it is replacing it with other, conventional forms of credit, which more than compensate for the transition. Below is the full breakdown of the latest broad credit data, via Barclays: New loans recorded CNY826bn in July, compared with CNY464bn a year ago, with y/y outstanding growth accelerating to 13.2% from 12.9% previously. Both corporate loans and household loans increased greater than last year. New corporate loans advanced to CNY354bn from a decline of CNY3bn a year ago, with long-term corporate loans contributing CNY433bn (a year ago: CNY151bn) and short-term loans adding CNY63bn (a year ago: CNY-201bn). New household loans registered CNY562bn, compared with CNY458bn a year ago. While short-term household loans added CNY107bn (a year ago: CNY-20bn), long-term household loans (mostly mortgage loans) slowed to CNY454bn, from CNY477bn a year ago. We think the softening momentum in long-term household loans is likely to persist given the government’s tightening measures on the housing market will continue to exert downward pressure on new sales. In addition, M2 growth further decelerated to 9.2% in July (June: 9.4%), but M1 growth slightly rebounded to 15.3% from 15.0% in June (Figure 5). Total Social Financing reached CNY1220bn in July (a year ago: CNY479bn), and its y/y growth rate accelerated to 13.2% (June: 12.8%), the highest since November 2016 (consensus: CNY1000bn,). New loans to the real economy (excluding loans to non-bank financial institutions) rose to CNY915bn from CNY455bn a year ago. This, combined with the loan data, suggests that loan demand from both households and corporates remains strong. Notably, corporate bond financing strongly rebounded to CNY284bn in July (June: CNY-17bn, a year ago: CNY221bn), reflecting the recovering sentiment in the bond market following the improved regulatory policy coordination in recent months (Figure 8). The recovering bond financing may have also crowded out some off-balance-sheet lending, which contracted by CNY64bn in July (June: CNY224bn, a year ago: -CNY313bn). The contraction came from a drop of CNY204bn in undiscounted bankers acceptance bills (July 2016: -CNY512bn), while trusted loans and entrusted loans still expanded by CNY16bn and CNY123bn, respectively. Finally, some interesting observations from Goldman's The fall in the level of RMB loans and TSF was completely seasonal. Adjusting for seasonality, growth of total social financing and RMB loans both accelerated in July from the previous month. The acceleration in broad local government debt adjusted TSF to 20% annualized level was particularly meaningful. There has been a rotation away from shadow bank to traditional banking financing in recent months as a part of the government's attempt to control shadow banking related risks and leverage while maintaining growth stability at the same time. Reflecting this tendency, loan supply has beaten market expectations for 4 months in a row. M2 growth surprised to the downside. Among the drivers of M2 growth, (1) RMB loan growth was robust, (2) FX flows (which contribute to M2 growth when foreign currencies are converted into domestic currency) were likely largely steady so didn't contribute to the M2 weakness either, (3) net fiscal spending (fiscal deposits held by the government are excluded from M2) made a negative contribution to M2 growth. June's fiscal policy stance was particularly loose compared to a normal year while July's was modestly tight. But this contribution was relatively small and not the main driver of slower M2 growth. This means the residual shadow banking products likely made the biggest (negative) contribution. The recent behavior of the economy suggests the impact of the slowdown in these shadow products on real activity is relatively modest, as long as broad TSF growth holds up--although other factors (such as strong external demand) have provided support as well. While July's activity growth data surprised on the downside, we do not see the need to be overly concerned about the growth outlook as the growth rate in June (particularly strong) and July (particularly weak) combined was at a robust level of 10% ann. Although the higher-than-normal July temperatures would tend to bias IP stronger than otherwise, this is still a healthy level of growth, consistent with loose financial conditions domestically and firm exports growth externally. We expect the authorities to fine tune policy stance on a real time basis to ensure growth stability at least before the end of the Party Congress. Even after the Party Congress this policy put will not disappear, it will just not be as strong as it is now. Finally, there unspoken question is this: if China's massive, unregulated and largely uncontrollable shadow banking industry, which was roughly $9 trillion at last check, or not much smaller than China's GDP,  is now shrinking and thus destroying capital, how long before the current "calm, cool and collected" snaps and the ongoing deleveraging morphs into a bank run, with dire consequences for the nearly $40 trillion Chinese financial sector?

15 августа, 13:57

VIX Tumbles, Global Stocks And Dollar Rally As Korea Tensions Ease

Overnight bulletin summary Global equities trade higher amid easing geopolitical tensions Pound tumbles on weaker than expected inflation data Today's calendar includes US retail sales, Empire Fed, import prices, NAHB, and API crude oil inventories Global stocks and US futures are up for a second day, with the VIX sliding 0.65 vols to 11.68 (-5.2%) and haven assets dropping, after a KCNA report report suggested North Korea had pulled back its threat to attack Guam after days of increasingly bellicose "fire and fury" rhetoric with President Trump, and hours after China took its toughest steps to support U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang, while the possibility of a Sino-American trade war was played down. The report, from KCNA on Tuesday, said Kim praised the military for drawing up a “careful plan” to fire missiles toward Guam. Kim was cited by KCNA saying he would watch the U.S.’s conduct “a little more.” "There is a more relaxed attitude being taken towards the Korean situation in markets. With the report North Korea has put its plans on hold, there is a sense of stepping back from the brink," Rabobank analyst Lyn Graham-Taylor said. Notably, risk aversion has not totally gone away, as Defence secretary Mattis also warned earlier that if NK fired missiles at Guam, it would be “game on” and “could escalate into war quickly”. That said, he was vague about what would happen if missiles splashed into the sea near Guam. The result was a continuation of yesterday's "risk-on" sentiment: the USD bounced, the USDJPY spiked as hugh as 110.45, while the pound tumbled on poor UK inflation data, while the EUR was dragged lower on what is a holiday across continental Europe. However, as some trading desks warn, this return of risk appetite may be temporary as the US and South Korea have joint military exercises scheduled for next week, which could spark things off again. For now however, traditional haven assets including gold and core bonds across Europe and TSYs slumped. Global stocks were roughly unchanged, with the MSCI All-Country World Index declined less than 0.05 percent, while Europe was broadly if modestly higher with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.1%. Germany’s DAX Index jumped 0.3 percent, as did the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index. S&P Futures are up 0.2%. In Asia, Japan’s Topix index finished the day 1.1% higher driven by the sharp drop in the Yen, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.5% at the close. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 0.3% following a bout of last hour selling, even as the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4%. Markets in South Korea and India are closed Tuesday for holidays. The yen fell 0.7% to 110.41 per dollar, the biggest drop in three weeks. While the overnight session was generally quiet, aside from the previously noted UK inflation miss which sent sterling tumbling, another indication that Europe may be rolling over was German Q2 GDP data, which missed at 0.6%, below the 0.7% expected, as imports outpaced exports following the recent surge in the Euro. After hawkish comments from Dudley and UST yields doing well, there is a broad USD bid, even though South Korean markets was closed for national holiday. As noted above, the yen dropped on easing of N.Korean tensions, while the pound weakened after U.K. inflation data missed estimates, and Sweden’s krona gained as headline inflation reached the highest level since 2011. "We have North Korea saying they will wait, and Trump not saying anything at all, compared to his past promise of 'fire and fury,'" said Mitsuo Imaizumi, chief FX strategist at Daiwa Securities.  "That added up to good news for the dollar, bad news for the yen," he said. Also overnight, China's credit growth came in higher than expected even as broad M2 plunged to a new all time low of 9.2% (exp. 9.4%): new yuan loans printed 825bn vs 800bn expected while aggregate financing came in at 1220bn vs 1000bn. However both measures of credit growth decreased sharply from June, where aggregate financing was 1776bn and new yuan loans increasing 1540bn. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 2.25 percent.  Germany’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.43 percent.  Britain’s 10-year yield climbed three basis points to 1.01 percent. Gold fell 0.6 percent to $1,274 an ounce. Oil prices steadied somewhat after falling more than 2.5 percent on Monday to its lowest in about three weeks on the strength of the dollar and reduced refining in China. Brent was last down 2 cents at $50.71 a barrel. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,467.25 U.S. 10Y Treasury yield: +3bps to 2.25% EUR/USD: -0.2% to 1.1758 USD/JPY: +0.7% at 110.40 GBP/USD: -0.5% at 1.2901 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.07% to 376.41 MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 158.72 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.07% to 520.98 Nikkei up 1.1% to 19,753.31 Topix up 1.1% to 1,616.21 Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 27,174.96 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,251.26 Sensex up 0.8% to 31,449.03 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,757.48 Kospi up 0.6% to 2,334.22 German 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.421% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1752 Italian 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.73% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 1.44% Brent futures down 0.1% to $50.68/bbl Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,274.68 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 93.68 Top Overnight News South Korean President Moon Jae-in said that any military action against Kim Jong Un’s regime requires his nation’s approval, and vowed to prevent war at all costs EU says frictionless trade with the U.K. is not possible outside the Single Market and Customs Union U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis says he won’t give a figure for Britain’s divorce bill by October Germany’s top judges have put the legality of the European Central Bank’s 2.3 trillion euros ($2.7 trillion) bond-buying program in doubt in a ruling that asks the European Court of Justice for guidance in five cases targeting the policy Intel CEO Becomes Third Chief to Quit Trump Business Council Trump Denounces White Supremacists Amid Backlash to Response Mattis Warns It’s ‘Game On’ If North Korea Strikes Guam U.K. Seeks Interim Customs Union With EU to Smooth Brexit New McDonald’s China Owners to Speed Up Expansion to Catch KFC Danone Is Said to Be Targeted by Activist Investor Corvex Transocean Agrees to Acquire Songa Offshore for $1.2 Billion Wrangler Jeans Owner Will Buy Dickies Maker for $820 Million WebMD Sued by Investor Seeking to Block $2.8 Bln KKR Sale Paulson And Other Hedge Funds Rewarded as Angst Fuels Gold Teva Cedes Spot as Israel’s Biggest Firm in Blow to Prestige ECB’s QE Questioned by German Judges Asking for EU Court Review Asian stock markets traded higher following the gains in US where the NASDAQ led the advances on continued tech outperformance, while global sentiment was also lifted as geopolitical concerns abated after comments from North Korean leader Kim that they will not strike Guam yet. ASX 200 (+0.47%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.11%) were boosted as tensions de-escalated, with markets in Japan the biggest gainer on JPY weakness. KOSPI is shut for holiday while Hang Seng (-0.28%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.43%) for the majority of the session conformed to the upbeat tone after the PBoC released around CNY 400b1n in MLF loans. Top Asian News South Korea to Prevent War at All Costs, President Moon Says Hedge Fund Betting on 70% Yuan Devaluation Digs In Amid Gain China Money Supply Growth Slips Again as Leverage Crunch Goes On China’s Economic Speed Bump May Reignite Bond Default Wave Fund Managers’ Positioning Remains Pro-Risk, BofAML Survey Shows Unmarried Indonesians Happier Than Those in Wedlock, Index Shows Modi Says More Indians Paying Tax After Cash Ban, GST Regime European equities have started the session off strongly (Eurostoxx +0.3%), as geopolitical tensions appear to have abated from the escalation seen last week. More specifically, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un discussed the Guam strike plan with officers and said they will not attack Guam yet, but could have a change of mind based on US actions. On a sector specific basis, energy and material names are the only sectors in the red with WTI back below USD 48.00 and gold losing ground amid the return of risk appetite. To the upside, Danone (+1.8%) are one of the notable gainers in Europe amid Corvex building a USD 400mln stake in the company. In fixed income, price action has largely been dictated by the broader risk-sentiment in the market in what is a week particularly void of EU sovereign supply amid summer-thinned trading conditions. More specifically, core paper is trading circa higher by 1.5bps with peripheral spreads higher by between 0.5-1.0bps. Note: the German Constitutional Court has declined to hear challenge of ECB's QE programme and will refer case to the European Court of Justice Top European News German Economy Extends Growth Spurt as Nation Heads for Election Merkel Jeered on Campaign Trail as Refugee Tensions Boil Up Swedish Inflation Hits Target for First Time in Almost Six Years U.K. Inflation Unexpectedly Holds Steady as Pound Drop Unwinds U.K. Growth, Inflation Outlook Cut, Weakening BOE Rate- Hike Case Schibsted Plunges to 8-Month Low as Facebook Expands Marketplace Bank of Russia Sells All 150b Rubles of 3-Month Bills Danone Undervalued, Scope for Margin Improvement, Bernstein Says Next Falls as Berenberg Says Rally Provides Shorting Opportunity In currency markets, the main data release this morning has come in the form of the latest UK inflation report. Despite expectations for Y/Y CPI to edge towards 3.0% by the year-end, today's metric fell short of consensus (2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7%) and saw GBP/USD fall circa 40 pips from 1.2950 to 1.2910 with the metric possibly dampening some expectations for a rate hike by the BoE in the short-term. Elsewhere, the USD remains firm against its major counterparts amid hawkish rhetoric yesterday from Fed's Dudley as well as gaining ground against JPY as JPY suffered from safe-haven outflows. Going forward, focus will likely be on NZD with the upcoming NZ dairy auction (futures pricing in a 4% increase in WMP). In commodities, metals markets have seen a mixed performance with gold (-0.5%) pressured amid safe-haven outflows as geopolitical concerns subsided while Copper benefited from the upbeat risk tone. WTI failed to make any significant recovery from yesterday's losses in which prices languished below USD 48/bbl after a bearish Genscape report, OPEC sources and comments from the EIA. Looking at the day ahead, there will be quite a lot of data, including: July retail sales, import / export price index for July (0.1% mom and 0.3% mom expected respectively), empire manufacturing stats (10 expected), the NAHB housing market index and US foreign net transactions for June. Further, Home depot will report its results today. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.2%; 8:30am: Import Price Index YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.5% Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%; 8:30am: Export Price Index YoY, prior 0.6% 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 10, prior 9.8 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.2%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.2% Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1% 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 64, prior 64 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3% 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $57.3b; Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $91.9b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Can we get back to August yet? Unless you are well connected to Kim Jong-un or to a lesser extent Mr Trump then it’s impossible to answer. However a lack of escalation over the weekend and more reassuring words from a top US general has been a big relief for markets. As it’s the 15th today we're clearly at the midmonth point that the North Korean leader previously suggested was his timetable to potentially launch missiles at Guam although as we'll see below NK state media has suggested overnight that he is reviewing his plans and will watch the US first. It will be difficult for markets to fully recover their poise until we're out of this mid-month window with no new provocations (or worse). However every day that no news breaks should help markets recover to where they were before last Monday evening's "fire and fury' tweet after the earlier Washington Post story that Pyongyang has produced a nuclear warhead small enough to fit inside one of its missiles. Following the calmer words from Defence Secretary Mattis and CIA’s director Pompeo over the weekend talkshows, US’s Marine General, Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Dunford followed up and told South Korean President Moon that “…everyone hopes to resolve the current situation without going to war…”. Today, President Moon spoke at a separate function and said “there will be no war repeated on the Korean peninsula” and emphasised the need for diplomatic efforts. The reduced prospect of a US-NK conflict boosted US markets overnight with Asian markets broadly higher this morning. The Kospi (+0.6%), Nikkei (+1.3%), Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Chinese bourses (+0.2%-0.7%) are all higher as we type. Elsewhere, the Korean Won is up 0.5%. Notably, risk aversion has not totally gone away, as Defence secretary Mattis also warned earlier that if NK fired missiles at Guam, it would be “game on” and “could escalate into war quickly”. That said, he was vague about what would happen if missiles splashed into the sea near Guam. On the other side of the fence, according to the Korean central news agency, Kim Jong-Un has reviewed his missile strike plans and will watch what the US is doing “a little more”. Looking away from geopolitics, the US’s July retail sales will be out later today. DB’s economist Brett Ryan expect sturdy gains on both headline (+0.6% forecast vs. -0.2% previously) and ex-automobile sales (+0.6% vs. -0.2%) following two consecutive monthly declines. Note that there has been only one other occasion in the current business cycle when ex-auto sales fell for three consecutive months and that was due  to unusually harsh winter weather in late 2014 / early 2015. Elsewhere, US data on June business inventories (+0.4% expected), US foreign net transaction, empire manufacturing (10 expected) and the NAHB housing market index are also due today, all of which should provide us with some clues on the US’s 2H GDP outlook. Moving back to markets. Remember that steady increase in the S&P we talked about a couple of weeks back. Well before yesterday, it was 77 trading days since the S&P increased by more than 1% in any one day. Clearly the +1.00% S&P gain overnight has just prevented this run continuing. All we needed was 3 more days to beat the prior record set back between November 06 and March 07 (79 trading days). Perhaps we'll now wait another 10 years before the record is threatened again. In terms of markets performance, lower risk aversion was evident across the board yesterday with the Vix down 21% to 12.3, gold falling 0.6% and the Swiss franc -0.2%. US equities strengthened, with the S&P up 1%, the Dow (+0.6%) and the Nasdaq (+1.3%). Within the S&P, only the energy sector was in the red (-0.3%), while all other sectors rose, particularly real estate (+1.7%) and IT (+1.6%). European markets were also up, with the Stoxx 600 +1.1% higher, with gains in every sector, particularly real estate and utilities (both +1.8%). Elsewhere, the DAX (+1.3%), FTSE 100 (+0.6%), CAC (+1.2%) and FTSE MIB (+1.7%) were also up. Government bond yields rose modestly reflecting lower risk aversion, with core yields up 1-3bp at the longer end of the curve, including: German bunds (2Y: unch; 10Y: +2bps), Gilts (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +1bps) and French OATs (2Y: +2bp; 10Y: +3bps). Peripheral bond yields outperformed as tensions eased with Italian BTPs (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: -1bp) and Portugal (2Y: +2bp; 10Y: -4bp) generally rallying. Across the pond, UST 10Y has increased 3bps this morning to 2.25%. Turning to the currency markets, the USD dollar index gained 0.4% yesterday, supported by the Fed Dudley’s comments on rates outlook (discussed later). Conversely, both the Euro and Sterling dipped 0.4% versus the USD, while the Euro/Sterling was broadly flat. In commodities, WTI oil fell 2.5% following concerns for slowing Chinese demand (softer IP data) and EIA raising forecasts that US shale output will reach an all-time high in September. Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly lower (Gold -0.6%; Silver -0.2%), while base metals were broadly unchanged, with Copper (+0.2%), Zinc (-0.4%), although aluminium fell -1.6% after a strong 9% rise in the prior week. Away from the markets, NY Fed president Dudley told the AP he expects inflation to move somewhat higher as the labour market tightens further and suggested the Fed will announce its taper plan next month. On the rates outlook, he said "If (economic forecasts) evolves in line with my expectations ... I would be in favour of doing another rate hike later this year." Elsewhere, he said White House economic adviser Gary Cohn is a “reasonable candidate” to head the Fed if Trump does not name Yellen for a second term. Following on with the economic outlook, Bloomberg surveyed 38 economists recently, ~76% of them expect congress will pass tax cut legislations by November 2018, albeit the tax cuts are likely to be lower than what the Trump administration had originally promised. The potential policy changes are expected to add 0.2ppt to the pace of GDP expansion in 2018. The latest ECB CSPP holdings were released yesterday. They bought €1.11bn last week which compares to €1.54bn, €0.79bn, €0.72bn, €1.43bn over the previous four weeks. These continue to be low numbers and this week's equate to an average of €221mn per day (vs. €354mn/day since CSPP started). The CSPP/PSPP ratio was 11.4% (previous weeks 12.8%, 8.1%, 6%, 10.4%) which is slightly below the average since the April taper begun but the average since this point of 12.8% is still higher than the pre-taper ratio of 11.6%. So the evidence is still in favour of CSPP having been trimmed less than PSPP since April even if there have been some softer weeks of late. The ECB probably did a little front loading to account for summer credit liquidity being worse than in govt. bonds. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. Adding onto our comments yesterday for the slightly lower than expected July industrial production data in China, our China research term believes that slower growth was mainly driven by surprisingly weak data from the property sector. (eg: growth of property sales cooled to 4.8% yoy in July after a strong rebound to 30.3% yoy in June). Overall, our team think that the slowdown in July is unlikely to change the government policy stance in Q3 (ie: they do not expect a visible loosening of monetary or fiscal policy). With GDP growth at 6.9% in H1, they argue that the government can afford to allow growth to drop moderately in Q3. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s June industrial production was slightly lower than expected at -0.6% mom (vs. -0.5%) and 2.6% (vs. 2.8% yoy). Looking at the day ahead, as our note is published, Germany’s preliminary 2Q GDP will be released, with 0.7% qoq and 1.9% expected. Then the UK’s July CPI (0% mom and 2.7% yoy expected), PPI output and retail price index are due. Over in the US, there will be quite a lot of data, including: July retail sales, import / export price index for July (0.1% mom and 0.3% mom expected respectively), empire manufacturing stats (10 expected), the NAHB housing market index and US foreign net transactions for June. Further, Home depot will report its results today.

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15 августа, 03:43

China Steel Output Hits All Time High, Setting Stage For Escalating Trade War

While the long-term consequences of Trump's first trade war salvo launched today will become obvious only in hindsight, it may have come at an opportune moment: just as China prepares to flood the world with record amounts of steel. Overnight, the National Statistics Bureau reported that even as Beijing intensified its war on smog, local steel output "paradoxically" hit a new monthly record in July, some 74.02 million tonnes, up 10% Y/Y (or 50% more than China's GDP) and higher than the previous record of 73.23 million tonnes set in June. For the first 7 months of the year, total production rose to a record 491.55 million tonnes, up 5.1% over the prior year period.  As Xu Bo, steel analyst at Haitong Futures observes, while Chinese steel output normally slows during the summer months, when building construction eases off due to the heat, this year the pattern has not held "due to Beijing's crackdown on low-end rebar and capacity cutbacks in the steel sector" which has prompted mills, spurred by rallying profits, to work with full capacity. "Steady demands from infrastructure also gave support to steel prices, which encourages mills to churn out more products," Xu said cited by Reuters. The Chinese commodity sector, boosted by a new wave of construction this time in Tier 2-4 cities, has been on fire in 2017 with the most-traded rebar futures contract gaining nearly 50% this year, peaking at 4,016 yuan ($603.15) a tonne last week before retreating modestly around 5%. However, the biggest impact will be on trade, and China's favorite pastime: dumping excess production in international markets. As Reuters correctly points out, "the data will likely fuel worries in the United States and Europe that China's efforts to cut excess capacity in bloated heavy industry are not leading to a drop in supplies, which foreign rivals say are flooding international markets." In the past, this has resulted in sharp tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese exporters, and this time won't be any different, only it will take place in the context of a belligerent trade standoff. Meanwhile, China has been pushing to clean up its inefficient manufacturing sectors for years as part of its war on smog and supply-side reform. This year it has sought to curb output of low-grade steel like rebar used in construction, leading to a surge in prices as investors bet on tight supplies. Of course, just like with US shale producers, the surging prices promptly sparked the return of domestic producers, and allowed steel mills to expand plants if they comply with stricter environmental standards, which has offset much of the capacity reductions. And now, with Chinese steel inventories back to an all time high "square one" thanks to a glut of steel and other commodities, it will either have to build more ghost cities or it will dump the excess production in international markets, unleashing further trade wars around the globe.

14 августа, 13:42

VIX Tumbles, S&P Futures, Global Stocks Rebound Sharply As Korea Fears Fade

The VIX tumbled by nearly 3 vols, down to 13.10 last, or over 18% lower and global stocks and S&P futures rebounded sharply on Monday as tensions over an imminent conflict with Pyongyang receded after U.S. officials played down the likelihood of a nuclear conflict with North Korea, recovering from fears of a U.S.-North Korea nuclear standoff drove them to the biggest weekly losses of 2017, while the dollar too rose off four-month lows it had hit against the yen. As DB summarizes the latest events in the ongoing N.Korean crisis, this could be a pivotal week in the stand-off as last week Kim Jong-un did say that they would be ready to attack Guam by "mid-August" which if we are being literal is this week. However a lack of much news on the story over the weekend is surely a positive for now. Indeed the CIA’s director Pompeo tried to calm nerves by speaking to Fox news on Sunday, noting that “…I’ve seen no intelligence that would indicate that we’re in (the cusp of a nuclear war) today…” and would not be surprised if NK tested another missile. Further, national security adviser McMaster also said there’s no indication war will break out. Perhaps these comments were a response to Trump’s comments on Friday that “military solutions are…locked and loaded, should NK act unwisely…”. European shares bounced after falling nearly 3% last week, with the STOXX 600 up 0.7% following on from a 0.9 percent jump in MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its first gain in four days, tracking increases across markets including South Korea. As the chart below shows, Still, Europe may be due for a pullback: the MSCI Europe Index hasn't had a 10% correction in more than a year. Gains were led by bounces in Australia, Hong Kong and South Korea while the MSCI world index rose 0.2%. That said, as the following chart from Cantillon Consulting shows, the MSCI world index is finally testing the support of the channel established during the Trump reflation move: it either snaps or rebounds to new highs. Japan failed to partake in the region's gains however, slipping 1 percent to three-month lows despite an impressive GDP print showing robust 1.1% Q2 growth in Japan (more below), driven by worries over the potential impact of the yen's recent surge against the dollar. Japanese investors also repatriated cash held overseas, keeping the USDJPY below 110. The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 109.70 after slipping to 108.720 on Friday, its weakest since April 20. Against a basket of currencies it firmed 0.2 percent, rising off last week's 10-day lows . "As long as the geopolitics ease, we look for dollar/yen to gradually grind higher, back above the 110.00 level, along with gently rising U.S. yields," ING Bank analysts told clients. "The risk aversion has stabilized and investors have gotten used to the North Korea situation a little bit - as long as it doesn't escalate further," said Daniel Lenz, a strategist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. That said, expectations of an all clear may be premature: North Korea's Liberation Day celebration on Tuesday to mark the end of Japanese rule could see tensions rise again, markets are relieved that the weekend had passed without more rhetoric. This may be reflect in the ongoing surge in bitcoin, which jumped for the second consecutive weekend, and hit a new all time high above $4,200 this morning. In overnight data, Japan printed the strongest GDP in over two years, after the economy was said to have grown at a 4% annualized rate in Q2, a 6th consecutive quarter of growth. Meanwhile, economic data out of China disappointed across the board as Chinese retail sales and industrial production for July missed estimates. South Korea’s won led a rebound in most Asian emerging-market currencies after several top U.S. national security officials said a nuclear war with North Korea wasn’t imminent. The MSCI Asia index ex Japan advanced for the first time in four days amid steady sovereign bonds. “With the geopolitical concerns surrounding North Korea appearing to stabilize a little, we could see the USD/Asia complex be fairly range-bound today with a slight downward bias,” said Julian Wee, a senior market strategist at National Australia Bank in Singapore. Japan’s yen weakened, after rallying the most since May last week on haven demand. Gold halted its advance amid the efforts by U.S. officials to soothe the escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.  Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumps 0.23%, first gain in three days In China, the yuan gave up earlier gains with the offshore exchange rate falling most in six weeks as the dollar jumps and the People’s Bank of China sets a weaker-than-expected daily reference rate. The CNY dropped 0.05%, erasing an advance of as much as 0.16%, to 6.6700 per dollar, after the PBOC strengthened the yuan reference rate 0.06% to 6.6601, weaker than Mizuho Bank’s est. of 6.6573 and Nomura’s 6.6562. In rates, 10-year TSY yields inched higher after falling on Friday to six-week lows following data showing that U.S. consumer prices rose just 0.1 percent last month, below economists' forecast of a 0.2% gain. Euro zone bond yields also rose, with investors interpreting the robust Japanese data as a sign that the global economy is indeed on the mend. While Japan is not expected to dismantle its stimulus program any time soon, analysts reckon that signs of global recovery gives euro zone and U.S. central banks a reason to start rolling back some of their asset purchases. The yield on Germany's 10-year government bond was up 4.5 bps to 0.43%, a move mirrored by most other euro zone debt. Commodities trading was mixed overnight with safe-haven gold (-0.2%) pulling back from 9-week highs amid the improved risk sentiment. Demand for copper was subdued alongside weaker iron ore prices after Chinese Industrial Production data for July missed expectations, while WTI was quiet overnight with prices unchanged during Asia trade. Crude prices seeing a modest move lower, however prices are still up significantly from last week's gains with Brent remaining above $52. Much like fixed income, gold and silver prices are bearing the brunt of a more risk on environment. Libya's top oil field is said to drop on security threats. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Equities in the Green Brexit Whispers Once Again Begin Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 2,454.30 VIX down 2.94 to 13.10, -18.33% STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 375.08 MSCI ASIA down 0.1% to 158.25 MSCIA Asia ex Japan up 0.8% to 520.33 Nikkei down 1% to 19,537.10 Topix down 1.1% to 1,599.06 Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 27,250.23 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,237.36 Sensex up 0.9% to 31,494.28 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,730.41 Kospi up 0.6% to 2,334.22 German 10Y yield rises 4bps to 0.42% Euro down 0.2% to 1.1803 per US$ US 10Y yield rises 2bps to 2.21 Italian 10Y yield falls 1bp to 2.02% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2bps to 1.44% Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,281.92 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 93.32 Top Overnight News Two top U.S. national security officials sought to assuage fears of imminent nuclear war with North Korea following days of heightened rhetoric by President Donald Trump, as America’s top general prepares to meet with South Korea’s leader Patrick Drahi’s Altice NV is considering asking Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and BC Partners to help fund a potential bid to buy cable broadcaster Charter Communications Inc. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is proposing to charge as little as $10,000 a year for equity research, the lowest price to emerge so far, as the Wall Street giant seeks to grab market share when a European ban on free analysis for clients is imposed Venezuela will defend itself from the “madness” of Donald Trump, its defense minister said, a day after the U.S. president said he’s considering a military option in response to the escalating political and economic crisis in the oil-producing nation The pros who make their living forecasting the economy overwhelmingly expect President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans to push through tax cuts in time for next year’s congressional elections Rovio Entertainment Oy is planning an initial public offering as early as next month that could value the maker of the Angry Birds mobile games and movie at about $2 billion Angry Birds Maker Is Said to Plan IPO at $2 Billion Value Toshiba Chip Sale Talks Are Said to Stall On Payment Timing Cathay ‘Begging With Golden Bowl’ to Win Back Chinese Fliers Alibaba and Tencent Looking Riskier And Placing Bigger Bets Stada Appeals to Hedge Funds to Push Through Bain, Cinven Bid MGM Resorts Bets on Wealthier Masses to Catch Up in Macau Survival of Brokers’ Morning Notes in Balance as MiFID Looms China Economy Loses Momentum as Factory Output, Investment Slow China July industrial output 6.4% vs 7.1% est; retail sales 10.4% vs 10.8% est; fixed-asset investment 8.3% vs 8.6% est Japan 2Q GDP 1.0% vs 0.6% est; y/y 4.0% vs 2.5% est; business spending 2.4% vs 1.2% est; private consumption 0.9% vs 0.5% est RBA’s Kent says interest rates unlikely to rise any time soon; RBA will be cautious when time to normalize New Zealand 2Q retail sales 2.0% vs 0.7% estimate Macri candidates leading key provinces in Argentina’s primaries Asian equity markets traded mostly higher following the rebound of US stocks last Friday on Wall Street where the NASDAQ outperformed amid tech strength, while a miss on CPI dampened prospects of a December Fed hike. The improvement in risk sentiment was also supported as some geopolitical concerns abated which saw ASX 200 (+0.7%) and KOSPI (+0.6%) positive throughout the session, however Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) bucked the trend despite strong GDP numbers, as Friday's Asian session losses caught up with the index on its return from a long weekend. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.4%) were positive following a firm liquidity operation by the PBoC, although gains in the mainland bourse were capped as Industrial Production and Retail Sales data added to the recent trend of disappointing Chinese data releases. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded flat as participants mulled over strong GDP numbers and losses in Japanese stocks, with demand also dampened from a lack of a Rinban announcement by the BoJ.Japanese GDP (Q2 P) Q/Q 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prey. 0.3%). Japanese GDP Annualized (Q2 P) 4.0% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prey. 1.0%); Chinese data reported overnight was weak across the board: Chinese Industrial Production (Jul) Y/Y 6.4% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prey. 7.6%). Chinese Industrial Production YTD (Jul) Y/Y 6.8% vs. Exp. 6.9% (Prey. 6.9%). Chinese Retail Sales (Jul) Y/Y 10.4% vs. Exp. 10.8% (Prey. 11.0%). Chinese Retail Sales YTD (Jul) Y/Y 10.4% vs. Exp. 10.5% (Prey. 10.4%) PBoC injected CNY 110bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 100bln in 14-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6601 (Prey. 6.6642) According to the China Commerce Ministry, China is to ban some imports from North Korea based on US resolution, the ban is to include imports of Iron ore, Coal, Lead and seafood (effective Tuesday August 15th) Top Asian News Hong Kong Stock Exchange Trading Hall to Close in October: SCMP Alibaba, Tencent, Telstra Options Overprice Earnings-Day Moves Gold Giant Gains to Record as India’s Tax Shift Seen as Plus HSBC Lowers USD/SGD Forecast With MAS Seen Tightening in April Sunac Is Said to Consider Strategic Investor for Leshi: Caixin A relief rally in Europe to begin the week with much of the gains stemming from financials, while RWE is making solid gains after strong earnings results. Elsewhere, Danone are among the best performers this morning following reports that Kraft and Coke are seen as possible buyers for the company. Demand for riskier assets amid the quiet newsflow over tensions on the Korean peninsula has subsequently hampered EGBs. German curve has been bear steepening this morning, while peripheral spreads are slightly tighter. UK Chancellor Hammond and Trade Minister Fox stated that the Brexit transition period will be limited and will be intended to avert a cliff edge. The ministers also added that the transition period cannot be an alternate path for staying in the EU. Markets have been unfazed by the speech, with the indecision and uncertainty continuing to be evident in sterling. Top European News Hammond, Fox Say Transition Won’t Be Back Door to Staying in EU Pandora Shares Fall; Carnegie Says FY Guidance Is ‘Stretched’ Draghi Gets Help From Euro Zone’s Northerners Wanting More Pay London’s Big Ben Bell to Fall Silent Next Week for Four Years Merkel’s Election Rivals Roll Out the Big Guns to Narrow Gap Allianz Looks to Buy Bunds After ECB Gives Tapering Steer Brace for Pound Turbulence as Economics and Politics Collide In currencies, as newsflow covering the spat between North Korea and the US simmers down, the USD index has been trading at better levels against the Yen which has pressured major pairs. In turn, EUR tripped through 1.18 to hover near session lows. Poor data out of China damped AUD, as Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales missed across the board. As the data was digested, AUD/USD came off best levels, and trades around session lows, through 0.79 once again. A clear break through 0.7840 is needed to indicate any clear change of direction. Yen has seen some unwinding of the risk off positions taken throughout last week's trade, amid the growing geopolitical tensions. USD/JPY's June's low just through 109.00 saw some bids waiting, as the pair has come off best levels, with bulls likely to look to test 110.00.  The pound has seen rangebound trade throughout the Asian session despite Brexit commentary emerging from the woodworks once again. Comments from UK Chancellor Hammond and Trade Minister Fox stated that the Brexit transition period will be limited and will be intended to avert a cliff edge. The ministers also added that the transition period cannot be an alternate path for staying in the EU. Markets have been unfazed by the speech, with the indecision and uncertainty continuing to be evident in sterling. In commodities, trading was mixed overnight with safe-haven gold (-0.2%) mildly pulling back from 9-week highs amid an improvement in global risk sentiment. Conversely, demand for copper was subdued alongside weaker iron ore prices after Chinese Industrial Production data for July missed expectations, while WTI quiet overnight with prices unchanged during Asia trade. Crude prices seeing a modest move lower, however prices are still up significantly from last week's gains with Brent remaining above USD 52. Much like fixed income, gold and silver prices are bearing the brunt of a more risk on environment. Libya's top oil field is said to drop on security threats. On today's calendar there is no major economic data and no Fed speakers DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Hopefully you all had a good weekend? Mine involved picking up our new car and having to deal with epic meltdown tantrums. On Saturday we took Maisie to the swings where she couldn't stop smiling and laughing. She was so so happy. We then said it was time to go home and the response was to throw herself on the floor and roll about in pain like a diving footballer looking for a penalty, scream and shout, cry at the top of her voice and basically embarrass us. The same thing happened the following day at the first of her friends to have a second birthday party. She had a wonderful time and wouldn't stop giggling for two hours. Everybody remarked what a credit to us she was. Then when she was told we had to leave the humiliation of us as parents began. The only thing that calmed her down on both days was her new favourite TV show Peter Rabbit!! TV is becoming our saviour as bad parents......... until we turn it off and then the tantrums start again!!!! Markets were obviously in semi tantrum mode over the course of the last seven days. This time last week we suggested how it was likely we would now be in for a summer lull for a couple of weeks and that it was set to be extremely quiet. We went on to say that if anything was guaranteed to ensure that something would blow up then it was that comment. So we were half right! To be fair in July the one thing that we raised that we thought could break the summer calm was that Mr Trump might look to distract from his legislative difficulties so far and up the ante against Korea. Tensions have been bubbling for a few weeks. It was impossible to predict the timing and a big risk to position for it but it was an observable risk. However it does take two to tango and Kim Jong-un has been highly provocative of late. This could be a pivotal week in the stand-off as last week Kim Jong-un did say that they would be ready to attack Guam by "mid-August" which if we are being literal is this week. However a lack of much news on the story over the weekend is surely a positive for now. Indeed the CIA’s director Pompeo tried to calm nerves by speaking to Fox news on Sunday, noting that “…I’ve seen no intelligence that would indicate that we’re in (the cusp of a nuclear war) today…” and would not be surprised if NK tested another missile. Further, national security adviser McMaster also said there’s no indication war will break out. Perhaps these comments were a response to Trump’s comments on Friday that “military solutions are…locked and loaded, should NK act unwisely…”. On this whole episode I'm not sure what it is about Augusts. In my career, this month has often created volatility from nowhere. With people on holiday thin trading can certainly exacerbate market wobbles. Interestingly the WSJ over the weekend discussed how North Korean provocations haven't had much impact on markets in the past. They examined 80 international incidents involving their nuclear program since 1993 and their impact on financial markets. They suggested that there hasn't been much of a risk off in response to nuclear escalations. I suppose the reality is that its noise and bluster until it isn't. In the last 20 years it’s been mostly noise and then diplomacy. The worry that markets might have at the moment is that the Trump administration could be unpredictable relative to his predecessors. With his popularity low and legislative failures hurting then it’s possible to envisage a scenario where he reacts more aggressively than earlier presidents. So far the sell-off has been relatively measured it’s just that in the context of very very calm markets recently it’s still been a bit of a shock. In our list of global assets we regularly review, Silver (+4.9%) and Gold (+2.4%) were the best performers last week. Gilts (+1.1% - the longest duration govt bond market), Bunds (0.6%) and Treasuries (+0.5%) were also towards the top of the leader board and showing pretty strong weekly numbers for fixed income. In terms of equities the highlights were the Nikkei (-1.1% but closed Friday), S&P 500 (-1.4%), FTSE (-2.1%), DAX (-2.3%), FTSE-MIB (-2.7%) and the IBEX (-3.5%). Note that European Banks (-4.0%) were one of the worse performers mostly responding to the drop in yields. Diving down more specifically on this for 10 year yields we saw Bunds -8bps, Gilts, -8bps, UST -6bps, OATs -6bps, Spain flat and Italy +4bps. In credit the sell-off was fairly measured with Crossover +11bps, iTraxx Europe +3bps, Sen Fins +2bps and US CDX IG +2bps on the week. Overall these type of moves wouldn't normally merit a specific mention but in the low vol world they have shaken things up a bit. We'd also note the VIX rose 55% last week from 10.0 to 15.51 but off the week's (and year's) highs of 16.04. Thursday  actually saw the highest volume day ever for VIX options. For equities so far the moves haven't been that large. In today's PDF we reproduce a table from DB's Binky Chadha looking at major geo-political events and US market sell-off. So spreading the net wider than just North Korea and also at actual events rather than aggressive rhetoric. He highlights 28 such events since the start of WWII and suggests that the average behaviour of the S&P 500 around geopolitical events is of a sharp short-lived selloff with 1) a median sell off of -5.7%, 2) 3 weeks to find a bottom, 3) Another 3 weeks to recover to prior levels and 4) Significantly higher markets 3 months (+6.5%) and 12 months (+13%) on. This morning, Asian markets were broadly higher as new escalations in the conflict is good news for now. Japan’s preliminary 2Q GDP beat expectations at 1% qoq (vs. 0.6% expected) and 4% yoy (vs. 2.5% yoy), but the Nikkei fell 0.8%, partly reflecting a catch up effect as last Friday was a holiday. Also, our Japanese economist believe the 2Q trends appears too good to be sustained, partly as major leading indicators of investment appear to have already peaked. Elsewhere, Chinese data was softer than expectations, with the July IP at 6.4% yoy (vs. 7.1%, 7.6% previous) and retail sales at 10.4% yoy (vs. 10.8%). Chinese markets have dipped a little after the news, but have continued to strengthen afterwards, with the Hang Seng up 1.2% and Chinese bourses up 0.4% to 1.7% as we type. The Kospi is up 0.7% and the Won up 0.4%. Onto Friday's US July inflation numbers, which missed for the fifth consecutive month. Headline inflation was lower than expected at 0.1 % mom (vs. 0.2%) and 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.8%), but core inflation was in line at 1.7% yoy. DB’s Luzzetti argued there were some outliers and saw some tentative signs of an improving underlying trend (medical services inflation). Even so, the team acknowledge that it is difficult to dismiss the string of recent soft inflation prints. Looking ahead, core CPI inflation is still expected to remain near recent levels in yoy terms through 2017, but on a mom basis, DB expects a rebound through year end, which if it occurs would support a Dec 17 rate hike. However that hike must be more in doubt at the moment. Elsewhere, the Dallas Fed’s Kaplan said that whilst he was a strong advocate of the two recent rate hikes, “I at this stage want to see continued evidence - or more evidence - that we’re making progress on reaching our inflation objective, …I’m willing to be patient”. According to Bloomberg’s implied probability function, the chance of a rate hike in Dec 17 has fallen from ~38% to ~26% post the CPI data and Fed speeches. Elsewhere, in an attempt to get Brexit talks back on track. The UK government plans to issue three discussion papers ahead of the next round of talks on 28th August. The papers could set out proposals for Northern Ireland and borders with Ireland, continuity on the availability of goods and confidentially & access to official documents after Brexit. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, there was the aforementioned CPI stats. Over in Europe, the final July inflation readings for Germany and France was released, both had no change relative to their flash readings. For Germany, it was 0.4% mom and 1.5% yoy, and for France, it was -0.4% mom and 0.8% yoy. To the week ahead now. Today starts with the Eurozone’s industrial production (IP) stats for June. Onto Tuesday, Japan’s final reading for June IP and capacity utilisation stats as well as German’s preliminary 2Q GDP stats will be due early in the morning. Then UK’s July CPI, PPI and retail price index are due. Over in the US, there will be quite a lot of data, including: July retail sales, import / export price index for July, empire manufacturing stats, NAHB housing market index and US foreign net transactions for June. Turning to Wednesday, the Eurozone and Italy’s preliminary 2Q GDP stats are due. Then for UK, we have the July jobless claims and claimant count rate and the June ILO unemployment data. Across the pond, we get the FOMC meeting minutes along with the July housing starts and MBA mortgage applications stats. For Thursday, Japan’s July trade balance, exports/ imports data along with France’s ILO unemployment rate will be out early in the morning. Then the Eurozone’s July CPI and UK’s July retail sales are due. In the US, quite a lot of data again, including: July IP, conference board US leading index, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, initial jobless claims and continuing claims stats. Finally on Friday, Germany’s PPI will be due early in the morning. Follow by the Eurozone’s June current account stats and construction output data. In the US, various University of Michigan sentiment index are also due.

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13 августа, 17:59

Bitcoin Blows Through $4000 As Asian Demand Soars

While many of the largest cryptocurrencies are fading modestly this morning, Bitcoin is holding on to dramatic agains which saw the largest virtual currency spike to as high as $4190 as Yen, Yuan, and Won trading activity dominated volumes. Bitcoin Cash remains in 4th place overall by market cap but Bitcoin is the only currency higher among the top 5 this morning.   Soaring past $4000...   As CoinTelegraph reports, the trading of Bitcoin in Japanese yen has accounted for almost 46 percent of total trade volume worldwide. The trading of Bitcoin in US dollar accounted for around 25 percent, while the trading of Bitcoin in South Korean won and Chinese yuan accounted for approximately 12 percent each. Additionally, anticipated demand is being priced in after VanEck filed for an 'active strategy' Bitcoin ETF: The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing, under normal circumstances, in U.S. exchange-traded bitcoin-linked derivative instruments ("Bitcoin Instruments") and pooled investment vehicles and exchange-traded products that provide exposure to bitcoin (together with Bitcoin Instruments, "Bitcoin Investments").   The Fund is an actively managed exchange-traded fund ("ETF") and should not be confused with one that is designed to track the performance of a specified index.   The Fund's strategy seeks to provide total return by actively managing the Fund's investments in Bitcoin Investments. Bitcoin’s solid performance in early August reflected that of gold’s amidst the selloff in stocks and bonds around the world due to the growing apprehensions over North Korea’s nuclear threat. And the latest moves this weekend in the crypto world suggest gold will open well north of $1300 tonight.

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12 августа, 20:40

Chinese Bank Suffers 'Rare' Bank Run, Police Arrest "Rumor-Spreaders"

Chinese police questioned 27 people, detained 12 and "severely" reprimanded 15, over the spreading of gossip about Linshang Bank - a lender with 61 billion yuan ($9.1 billion) in deposits - which caused a rare bank run in Eastern China. The South China Morning Post reports that a few disgruntled employees at Shandong Sanwei Oil Group, an agricultural processing company, were unhappy after they were placed on leave when production lines were closed at the firm. The employees spread a rumour that the firm was collapsing with billions of yuan in unpaid loans and that it might also bring down Linshang Bank, the report added.   The rumour spread quickly among residents, triggering a run on the local branch of the bank, according to the article. At one point more than 500 depositors gathered outside the branch demanding to withdraw their money. The bank said in a brief statement on its website that the spate of withdrawals at one of its branches in Linyi in Shandong province on Monday was caused by “a few individuals spreading rumours” that the bank was in trouble. The lender urged the public “not to believe in or spread rumours to jointly maintain good financial order”. "In the face of rumors, we hope the public reacts rationally, does not believe in rumors, does not rumor-monger, to avoid harming their own interests."  An official in the bank’s general affairs office told the South China Morning Post on Thursday the situation was now back to normal. A clerk at the bank’s Bancheng branch also said normal operations had resumed. “Our branch managers have been explaining to our clients ... and most clients left the branch without withdrawing money after they knew it was just untrue gossip,” the clerk said. As SCMP notes, regional banks in less developed areas are regarded as the weak links in China’s financial system as lenders often give large loans to local enterprises and may expose themselves to greater risks if local economic growth slows. A rumour that a rural lender in Sheyang county in Jiangsu province had run out of money three years ago triggered a three-day run on the bank, which forced it to place stacks of cash behind teller windows to ease depositors’ panic. While bank runs in China are unusual, the rapidity of this run (from gossip to deposit demands) makes us wonder just how fragile confidence must be among the average Jao. As a reminder, China’s central bank launched a deposit insurance system in May 2015, adopting Western-style protection for depositors. The maximum payout level is set at 500,000 yuan per depositor for each bank.

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11 августа, 23:00

Small Cap Stocks Suffer Worst Week In 18 Months As Retailer Rout Returns, Credit Crashes

Blame The Russians, The Chinese, The North Koreans, and The Welsh... but not The Fed...     Overnight saw more China turmoil.. (MSCI China ETF saw its biggest drop since Brexit)   With China 'VIX' spiking to 2017 highs...   Then Europe followed through with Corporate credit markets crashing by the most in 18 months... The cost of insuring against non-payment jumped the most this week since February 2016, when the oil price slump heightened default risks of energy companies and their bankers. And while stocks bounced today in US, the week was not pretty. Summary: Dow's worst week in 5 months (Mar '17) S&P's worst week since pre-election (Nov '16) Russell 2000 worst week since Feb '16 Financials worst week in 5 months VIX biggest percentage spike since Aug '15 (China Deval) HY Credit Risk biggest jump since election (Nov '16) Silver's biggest week since Jul '16 Gold's biggest week since Apr '16 Ofshore Yuan's best week in 7 months (Jan '17) Russell 2000 was the week's biggest loser (worst week for Small Caps since Feb 2016); Nasdaq is down 3 weeks in a row (worst week in last 7)   As Small Caps outperformance since the election has been erased...   Nasdaq was unable to break back above its 50DMA...   But it is the S&P 500 that is most worying to technical anlysts as this is the longest its held under the 50DMA since April...   Today's modest bounce was very weak as Buy-The-Fucking-All-Out-Nuclear-War-Dip'ers did not show up en masse...   Retailers were ugly bnut Energy and Financials suffered this week...   FANG Stocks suffered their 3rd losing week in a row, dropping to one month lows...   Retailer Rout returned this week...   For the worst week since Dec 2016...   VIX reached as high as 17.28 today - its highest since the election...   The VIX term structure inverted for the firs time since May...   Market Breadth (by any measure) remains dismal...   Credit markets were really ugly this week - as we noted above, Europe was a bloodbath - but US HY Corporate bond risk spiked 30bps - its biggest jump since the election...   Treasury yields tumbled on the week - pushing towards YTD low yields and entirely erasing any payrolls losses...   And at the very short-end, T-Bills are signaling early October debt ceiling deadline...   But while VIX shot up at the short-end this week, it remains relative ignorant of any debt ceiling concerns...   The Dollar Index closed lower for the 4th week of the last 5, erasing last Friday's post-payrolls ramp...   JPY has strengthened for 5 straight weeks against the USD, Yuan also surged this week (best wek in 7 months) with commodity currencies weakest...   And as the dollar sank, Bitcoin had its best week since pre-Brexit anxiety sent the virtual currency surging in June 2016... to a new record hiugh at $3550   WTI found resistance at $50 and support at $48 this week but ended lower...   Gold surged on the week as safe-haven buying sent the precious metal to $1298...   The last few weeks have seen gold and Bitcoin moving together...   Finally, we note that last week it was FX risk that spiked, this week it was equity's turn. What snaps next week?   Bonus Chart: "Probably nothing"   Bonus Bonus Chart: Maybe Gundlach's favorite indicator is wrong this time...

11 августа, 15:42

Dollar Nosedives After Inflation Disappoints For 5th Month In A Row

Following 'disappointing' (to some) producer price data, consumer prices missed expectations for the 5th month in a row with a mere 0.1% rise MoM (0.2% exp). Year-over-year growth in core consumer prices also slowed for the 7th straight month dropping to just 1.7% - the slowest since Jan 2015. Amid this dismal report, there is a silver lining for Americans, the cost of shelter rose just 0.1% - the smallest rise since March.   The breakdown by components Source: @SmithEconomics The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in July. The shelter index rose 0.1 percent in July, its smallest increase since March. The rent index increased 0.2 percent, while the index for owners' equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent. However, the AriBNB effect keeps crushing hotels - the index for lodging away from home fell sharply, declining 4.2 percent. The medical care index rose 0.4 percent in July, the same increase as in June. The index for prescription drugs continued to rise, increasing 1.3 percent in July after rising 1.0 percent in June. The index for hospital services rose 0.5 percent, and the physicians' services index advanced 0.1 percent. The recreation index rose 0.3 percent in July, its largest increase since February. The index for apparel rose 0.3 percent after declining in each of the past four months. The index for airline fares also turned up in July, rising 0.7 percent following 3 months of declines. The index for motor vehicle insurance continued to increase, rising 0.3 percent. The dollar is disappointed: In his preview of a potential 5th consecutive CPI miss, RBC's Charlie McElligott has this to day: US CPI (core) was always going to be the headliner of the week, as the 2.5 year global macro focus has continued to center on the debate around ‘disinflation / reflation’ range-trading around it.   Last week’s excitement around ISM Prices Paid and AHE’s beats (and 5y breakevens crossing north of 1.70 cleanly) however has been tempered by the disappointing PPI print yesterday (shouldn’t really fixate on that, as Tom Porcelli laid-out yday).     In light of the recent market wobble though, I can now see this going two very different routes.  An ‘inline to better’ number (.2) could definitely arrest the ‘sentiment drain’ in global risk markets right now, with long-awaited signs of US inflation and data being ‘back on track’ as a catalyst for higher Dollar & rates (real yields having collapsed recently).  That said however, with regards to the current US exporter / mega-cap Tech / FAANG ‘boon’ that has been the Dollar coming unglued, it might actually add further pressure to these areas which are obviously being ‘stressed’ (on account of positioning) ‘as is’ IF we were to see a strong counter-trend rally in Dollar kick-off.   Conversely, another miss in core CPI would REALLY muck-up the picture for the Fed and rates, with the potential for the market to try and price a Dec Fed hike out entirely, along with increased expectations for the Fed to drop their ‘dot plot.’  This would likely be the next driver of leg-lower in USD and with it, open up the potential for rates to revisit 2.0% level, especially with the potential scope for $/Y to travel to 105 and what that would do for Japanese ‘mechanical’ buying (and similar Yuan / Chinese FX reserve manager flows too).  In that case, you are likely to see a return to the ‘slow-flation’ positioning narrative—long secular growth, long low risk (‘duration sensitives’) against short cyclicals…sigh.  And I also think that if this were to occur and the Euro strengthened significantly again, you are going to see folks girded to short the EU exporter-centric DAX further.   Longer-term, that will probably be a ‘fade,’ but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. 

11 августа, 13:43

Global Market Rout Spreads: VIX Marches Higher As China Stocks, Currency Plunge

The global rout resulting from tensions over the North Korean nuclear standoff continued on Friday as world stocks tumbled for the fourth day, on course for their worst week since November following a third day of escalating verbal exchanges between Trump and Kim, as European and Asian shares tumlbed, volatility spiked, and the selloff in US futures continued albeit at a more modest pace as the escalating war of words over North Korea drove investors on Friday to safe havens such as the yen, Swiss franc and gold. In addition to North Korea, attention will be closely focused on today's US CPI print, which could result in even more currency volatility, should it surprise significantly in either direction. "What has changed this time is that the scary threats and war of words between the U.S. and North Korea have intensified to the point that markets can't ignore it," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital in Sydney. "Of course, it's all come at a time when share markets are due for a correction, so North Korea has provided a perfect trigger." All eyes remained on the sharp short squeeze in the VIX, which exploded more than 50% above 16 on Thursday from single digits the day before - the highest print since Trump's election victory - and extended gains on Friday rising nearly 5% to 16.80, after briefly topping 17, a potential "margin calling" nightmare for countless vol sellers over the past year. Thursday also saw the highest VIX volume day on record as 937K VIX futures traded across the curve. The Global Financial Stress Indicator surged positive after trading in negative territory since April. The global rout that sent the Nasdaq lower by 2% on Thursday, spread to China which saw the Shanghai Composite tumble by 1.6% to 3,208, its biggest drop this year, led by mining and resource stocks, with nearly 20 names halted limit down, after Chinese metals prices tumbled by 5%. The Chinese volatility index jumped by the most since January 2016 to its highest level in more than seven months. While there wasn't a specific catalyst for the rout, a driver for the sharp commodity selling was the announcement by the China Steel Industry Association which said the recent surge in steel futures was not due to market demand but misunderstanding by some institutions. Adding fuel to the fire was a Reuters report that the Shanghai Futures Exchange told its members it may raise margins on steel rebar contracts if market trade volume is too large. As a result, metals also led declines on the mainland CSI 300 Index: Xiamen Tungsten slides as much as 9.3%, most intraday since September; Jiangxi Copper falls as much as 8.3%; China Molybdenum slips as much as 7.7%; the Bloomberg China Steel Producers Valuation Peers Index tumbled 5.9%, with Nanjing Iron & Steel, Maanshan Iron & Steel, Angang Steel dropping at least 6.9%. "Chinese investors locked in profits on commodity shares following strong gains which had been driven by bets that capacity cuts would boost prices", said Helen Lau, Hong Kong-based analyst with Argonaut Securities. "Stock markets are in a risk-off mode due to escalating geopolitical risks, so recent outperformers would be the first to take a hit amid a selloff."  In HK trading Aluminum Corp. of China tumbles as much as 7.4%, the biggest intraday drop since February 2016, while China Shenhua Energy dropped as much as 4.8%, among the worst performers on Hang Seng Index. Also hurting Chinese sentiment was the plunge in Tencent, with the Chinese tech giant dropping as much as 5% in Hong Kong, its biggest intraday decline in more than a month, following news of a Chinese probe into Tencent, Sina and Baidu for cyber-security law violations.  Stocks of related tech companies were all lower with Sina down 3%, Weibo down 4.5%, and Baidu down 2.5%. Earlier in the session, the onshore Chinese yuan dropped as much as 0.43% vs USD to 6.7080, its biggest drop since Jan. 19, after the PBOC set the fixing at a weaker level than expected. As Bloomberg reported overnight, the PBOC strengthened fixing by 0.19% to 6.66420, compared with forecasts of 6.6477 from Commerzbank, 6.6552 from Mizuho Bank, 6.6559 from Scotiabank and 6.6549 from Nomura. At the same time, the offshore yuan dropped as much as 0.28% to 6.6853, most since June 26, although putting the drop in context, just one day earlier, the CNY rose to its strongest level since August 2016 on Thursday, prompting Bloomberg to call the Yuan the new "safe haven" currency. Elsewhere in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan had skidded 1.55 percent, its biggest one-day loss since mid-December, to leave it down 2.5 percent for the week. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.2 percent at the close in Sydney. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong tumbled 2 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.6 percent. The Japanese yen rose 0.2 percent to 108.96 per dollar, the strongest in more than 15 weeks. Japanese markets are closed for the Mountain Day public holiday. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.8 percent to an 11-1/2-week low, but its losses for the week are a relatively modest 3.2 percent; volatility on the Kospi 200 surged as much as 27 percent. "Pretty remarkable, perhaps even extraordinary, considering," said fund manager BlueBay strategist Tim Ash. The Korean won also continued to skid, down 0.45 percent to 1,147.2, falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a month. European markets continued sliding into risk-off mode although at a slower pace; even so Europe's where regional indices were set for the worst week of losses this year as sentiment on ongoing fears about escalation between the US and North Korea. Euro zone volatility jumped to the highest since April, when France's election was rattling the region.  Weakness has been seen across the board (Eurostoxx 600 -1.0%), however mining names have notably underperforming amid Chinese metal prices slumping by some 5% overnight. The iTraxx Crossover extended its recent widening, leading sentiment as hedges are placed into the weekend. European equity markets opened lower led by mining sector, as base metals sell off heavily in Asia after a report saying the Shanghai exchange may raise margins on steel rebar contracts, which was later confirmed. DAX futures dip to approach 200-DMA, financials under pressure after HSBC warns low-vol environment could hit 2H revenues. CHF and JPY marginally outperform in G-10, EMFX weaker against USD across the board. Core fixed income extends rally and bund curve flattens further, yet UST/bund spread widens 3bps as USTs lag amid focus on U.S. CPI data which may add to the recent dollar pains should inflation come in weaker than expected. U.S. treasury yields fell to their lowest in more than six weeks ahead of inflation data expected to show a pickup in price growth, which could boost the chances of a further rate hike this year, while the Fed’s Kaplan and Kashkari are due to speak. The dollar declined against the Japanese yen for a fourth day as North Korea tensions remained elevated. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.19 percent, the lowest in more than six weeks. Germany’s 10-year yield decreased three basis points to 0.38 percent, the lowest in more than six weeks. Oil was modestly higher even though the IEA cuts its OPEC demand estimates for this year and next year by by 400bpd after revising down its demand estimates going back to 2015, rejecting OPEC's own assessment of rising demand growth for the near future. Aside from North Korea, inflation data is where the market is most sensitive to a surprise at the moment, even if yesterday's weak US PPI doesn't suggest an imminent rise. For the US CPI today, consensus expected core CPI inflation to rise +0.2%, and should finally snap its streak of four consecutive monthly misses which could be important. As recent Fed statements have emphasized, policymakers will be monitoring near-term inflation trends closely. Hence, an in line print would provide tentative evidence that the recent downshift in core inflation may be behind us. New York Fed President William Dudley cautioned that it will “take some time” for inflation to reach the central bank’s 2 percent target, the latest official warning that price pressures remain muted. The Federal Reserve Bank Dallas President Fred Kaplan speaks this afternoon. Also today, Moody’s may publish a review of South Africa’s credit rating, two months after reducing its foreign- and local-currency assessments to one level above junk.  JC Penney, Magna International and Telus are due to release results. July consumer price data is also due later. Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk Geopolitical tensions continue to act as a driving force for markets amid the latest exchange between the US and NK This has seen downside in EU equities (Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%) and a FTQ in other assets Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Fed's Kashkari and Kaplan Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,434.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 1.0% to 372.26 DAX down 0.3% to 11,980 MSCI ASIA down 0.8% to 158.49 MSCI ASIA ex JAPAN down 1.5% to 515.81 Nikkei down 0.05% to 19,729.74 Topix down 0.04% to 1,617.25 Hang Seng Index down 2% to 26,883.51 Shanghai Composite down 1.6% to 3,208.54 Sensex down 1.1% to 31,193.00 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 5,693.14 Kospi down 1.7% to 2,319.71 German 10Y yield fell 3.5 bps to 0.38% Euro down 0.1% to 1.1759 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.9% to $51.45/bbl US 10Y yields unchanged at  2.19% Italian 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to 1.743% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.452% Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.70/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,287.31 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.04% to 93.44 Top Overnight News China Urges Restraint as Futures Slide; FOMC Voters to Speak After CPI Data; Snap Slammed Amid Facebook Pressure The escalating war of words between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un sent Asian markets tumbling as the region braced for more provocations from his regime next week President Donald Trump stepped up his campaign of pressure on North Korea, warning the regime not to follow through with a missile test near Guam and promising massive response to any strike against the U.S. or its allies Treasury yields may climb from a six-week low if Friday’s U.S. consumer- price data merely meet expectations, as the market is on high- alert for evidence that inflation is heating up and supporting the Fed’s case for higher interest rates For all the talk that Chair Janet Yellen’s plan to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet will hurt Treasuries, U.S. mortgage bonds face a bigger test The International Energy Agency cut estimates for the amount of crude needed from OPEC this year and in 2018, after lowering its historical assessments of consumption in emerging nations including China and India All that stands between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and a fourth term is six weeks of campaigning Morgan Stanley added its voice to a growing chorus of skepticism surrounding debt valuations, with Pacific Investment Management Co. writing in a report released Wednesday that investors should pare relatively expensive assets like corporate bonds in favor of safer investments like Treasuries Credit Suisse Group AG is barring its traders from buying or selling certain Venezuelan securities and business as the political and economic crisis in the South American country intensifies Gold advanced to the highest in two months as the spike in tensions between the U.S. and North Korea fanned demand, with hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio flagging rising risks, including “two confrontational, nationalistic, and militaristic leaders playing chicken with each other” President Donald Trump laid out a path for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to get back in his good graces: replace Obamacare, overhaul the U.S. tax code and find a way to pay for big infrastructure improvements RBA’s Lowe says next interest rate move likely up, but could be some time away; RBA prepared to intervene in A$ in ’extreme’ situations Snap, Blue Apron Fall Flat as the Incumbents Smash the Upstarts IEA Cuts Estimates for Crude Needed From OPEC This Year and Next Chinese Regulator Starts Probe Into Tencent, Weibo and Baidu Stolen 1MDB Funds Are Focus of U.S. Criminal Investigation Health Insurers Face Long Odds to Win Reprieve of Obamacare Tax U.S. Stocks Gain, Hong Kong Loses Weight in MSCI Indexes: SocGen FBI Says ISIS Used EBay to Send Cash to U.S.: WSJ Anbang Ownership Secrets Subject of U.S. Workers’ Complaint Hollywood Heads For Its Worst Summer Box Office in a Decade Asia stock markets were heavily pressured amid continued geopolitical tensions after further fighting talk between US and North Korea, which also saw US indices close negative for a 3rd consecutive day. The fresh goading came from both sides as US President Trump suggested his fire and fury comments maybe was not tough enough and warned North Korea to get its act together or it will be in trouble like few nations have ever been. This evoked a response from North Korea which vowed to mercilessly wipe out the provocateurs and stated the US will suffer a shameful defeat. As such, ASX 200 (-1.2%), KOSPI (-1.7%) Hang Seng (-2.0%) and Shanghai Comp (-1.7%) all traded with firm losses, while Nikkei 225 was shut due to public holiday. PBoC injected CNY 70bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 60bln in 14-day reverse repos, for a net weekly drain of CNY 30bln vs. CNY 40bln drain last week. Top Asian News War of Words Between Trump and Kim Has Asia Bracing for Conflict South Korean Banks Follow Won Lower Amid Rising Trump Rhetoric China Data Dump and Alternative Gauges Both Signal Steady Output Maker of India’s Aircraft Carrier Surges 22% on Trading Debut Biggest India Lender Slumps as Bad-Loan Surprise Hits Profit KKR Completes 26 Investments in China as of Aug. 1 Freeport Urged to Reinstate Workers to End Indonesian Strike India July Local Passenger Vehicle Sales Gain 15% Y/y to 298,997 BlackRock’s James Lenton Joins Fidelity as Trader in Hong Kong European indices are set for the worst week of losses this year as sentiment is weighed by the war of words between the US and North Korea. Weakness has been seen across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%), however mining names have notably underperforming amid Chinese metal prices slumping by some 5% overnight. EGBs supported by flight to quality with Bunds printing fresh session highs, while there had been reports of 5k lots tripping stops at 164.50. Peripherals underperform this morning, led by BTPs, subsequently the GER-ITA spread has widened to 162bps Top European News Morgan Stanley Makes ‘Multi-Year Call’ For Strong Euro on Reform Europe Miners Slump as Metals Fall on China Steel Body’s Warning Tullow Oil, Genel Energy Drop; GMP Cuts Both Stocks to Reduce Old Mutual First-Half Profit Climbs as Insurer’s Split Looms Merkel’s Bloc Holds All the Coalition Options in Latest Poll Buy BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse; Sell Barclays, Goldman Says Nordea Chairman Hints HQ Review Isn’t Limited to the Nordics In currencies, safe-haven support for the currency has continued as USD/JPY made a brief break below 109.00 overnight. Although, with the war of words showing no signs of stopping, JPY could make a push back to the April low at 108.11. So far, the pair have traded in a narrow range with investor focus for the USD shifting to the US inflation figures due out later in the session. AUD softened in Asian trade as commodities prices slipped. Crude prices fell over 0.5%, despite Saudi Arabia and Iraq's announcement to ensure that all major producers comply to the OPEC production cut, while Saudi also left the door open to deeper cuts. Additionally, Chinese iron ore prices fell some 5%, further weighed on the currency, subsequently pushing AUD to the mid 0.78. In commodities, China state run newspaper editorial comments state China will remain neutral if North Korea launches an attack on US, but if US strikes first and tries to overthrow North Korean government, China will stop them. Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Al-Falih stated the possibility for continuation of output cuts is on the table and if the size of cuts need to be adjusted, this will be examined and subject to approval by 24 countries. North Korea vows to mercilessly wipe out the provocateurs, says US will suffer a shameful defeat, according to North Korean state media. IEA raises 2017 global oil demand forecast to 1.5mln bpd vs. 1.4mln bpd, global oil supply rose by 520k, while OPEC compliance fell to 75%. Looking at the day ahead, the main focus will be its inflation stats for July, with expectations at 0.2% mom (for core) and 1.7% yoy. Onto other events, the Fed’s Kaplan and Fed’s Kashkari will also speak today. US Event calendar 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% US CPI YoY, est. 1.8%, prior 1.6%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7% Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.09%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.8% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I'm hoping I'll be on this planet for as close to 36,525 days as I can get and I'm also hoping tomorrow will be the only day of that stint that I'm stupid enough to be picking up a brand new car with no miles on it. So in some ways it's exciting and in some way it’s very annoying as I vowed never to waste money on a new car. The twins have forced the issue and I'll be figuratively setting light to wads of bank notes as I roll out the forecourt. I'm driving 80 miles to Poole to collect it and I'm setting off very early as I have to get back to make sure everything is ready at home for the new arrival. The excitement is building, I'm very nervous and hopes and dreams come in abundance with such a fresh start. Yes Liverpool kick off their season at lunchtime tomorrow and I need to make sure I'm back in time to watch it. Wish me luck. The markets and more importantly the world is wishing for a bit of luck at the moment and a peaceful solution to the North Korean spat. The nuclear fallout from this week's high stakes geopolitical jaw boning couldn't completely unsettle markets on Wednesday but Thursday was a different story. We finally broke the 15 day run of sub 0.3% closes in either direction with the S&P 500 -1.45% after a day where the news we covered yesterday morning concerning North Korea's threat to attack Guam by mid-August increasingly spooked global investors as the day progressed. Mr Trump then raised the temperature another notch late in the US session last night, saying his ‘fire and fury” comment earlier in the week “wasn’t tough enough” and that “things will happen to them (NK) like they never thought possible..” and has “declined” to rule out a pre-emptive strike on NK, noting “we’ll see what happens”, all of which helped the US close at the lows for the session and shatter the recent low vol environment. Given the previous record low vol run was 10 days in 1966, if I do live to be 100 I'm statistically unlikely to witness anything like what we saw in the 15 days before yesterday. The S&P 500 had its worse day since mid-May this year when it fell 1.8%. Over at the Vix, the fear gauge broadly traded up most of the day and surged 44% higher to close at 16.04, which is actually the first day the index closed above 16 in CY2017. Across the pond, the Vstoxx was up 26% to 18.9, the highest level since April when Europe had heightened political risks in the run up to the French elections. Investors pushed safe haven assets higher again, with gold up 0.7% to a 9 week high, the Swiss franc up 0.1% (was +1.1% the day before) and JPY/USD +0.8% higher. Over in European government bonds, changes in core yields were more tempered following the ~5bp fall the day before. Bunds fell 1bp (2Y: unch; 10Y: -1bps), with Gilts down 3bps (2Y: +0.3bp; 10Y: -3bps) at the long end of the curve, while French OATs were broadly flat (2Y: unch; 10Y: -0.5bp). Peripheral bond yields were up slightly across the curve, with Italian BTPs (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +2bps) and Portuguese yields (2Y: -0.5bp; 10Y: +2bps) not sure whether they  were a flight to quality instrument or a high beta asset. Across the pond, the UST10Y fell 5bps yesterday (2Y -1bp) but is fairly flat this morning. In Asia, markets have continued to fall. The Kospi recovered a little to be 1.6% down as we type, the Won/USD dipping another 0.2%. The Hang Seng fell for the 3rd consecutive day (-1.9%), with Chinese bourses down 1.1% to 1.6%. We also got a glimpse of what China might be thinking, with the Global times (English paper under the People's Daily) writing that China should make clear that: i) it will stay neutral if the US retaliates after NK launches missile that threaten American soil, but ii) if countries try to overthrow the NK regime, China will prevent them from doing so. Moving on, if we can pull out attention away from the nuclear threat, inflation data is probably where the market is most sensitive to a surprise at the moment, even if yesterday's weak US PPI doesn't suggest an imminent rise. For the US CPI today, our economists expect core CPI inflation (+0.2% vs. +0.1%) should finally snap its streak of four consecutive monthly misses which could be important. They also remind us that as recent Fed statements have emphasized, policymakers will be monitoring near-term inflation trends closely. Hence, an in line print would provide tentative evidence that the recent downshift in core inflation may be behind us. Following on the theme of inflation, DB’s Luzzetti examined the impact of recent US dollar depreciation on the inflation outlook. Based on their own inflation models and analysis cited by Fed officials, they think that recent dollar weakness – assuming that it does not reverse – could lift year-over-year core PCE inflation by about 0.2pps by mid-2018 and 0.1pps by mid-2019. More details here. Turning to Europe, the flip-side of recent currency moves is discussed by DB’s Mark Wall who has written on how euro appreciation will be balanced against growth momentum in determining the ECB’s exit from QE. He argue that all else unchanged the euro’s appreciation since June could reduce the ECB staff core inflation forecast for 2019 from 1.7% yoy to 1.5% yoy. More details here Returning to the equity market sell-off in a little more depth, US bourses all weakened yesterday, with the S&P (-1.5%), the Dow (-0.9%) and the Nasdaq (-2.1%) sharply lower. Within the S&P, only the utilities sector was up (+0.3%) versus larger losses elsewhere (IT -2.2%; Financials -1.8%). European markets also fell across the board, the Stoxx 600 was down 1% to the lowest level since March with all sectors in the red. Across the region the FTSE 100 (-1.4%),  the DAX (-1.2%), Italian FTSE MIB (-0.8%) and CAC (-0.6%) were all lower. Currencies were mixed but little changed, the USD dollar index dipped 0.2% post the lower than expected PPI data. The Euro continued to edge ahead against the USD and Sterling, up 0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while the Sterling/USD was down 0.2%. In commodities, WTI oil fell 2%, despite OPEC raising its demand forecast for oil and two of the largest OPEC producers (Saudi Arabia & Iraq) agreeing to strengthen their commitments to production cuts. Notably, Iraq's recent compliance to production targets is not exactly great (29% in July). Elsewhere, precious metals were modestly up (Gold +0.7%; Silver +1%) and aluminium continues to gain (Copper -0.3%; Aluminium +0.9%). Agricultural commodities were broadly lower, with corn, wheat and cotton all down ~4%, while soybeans, coffee and sugar were down ~3%. This follows a USDA report which suggest US farmers will produce more corn and soybeans than analyst forecasts. Away from the markets, Trump has made his disappointment with Senate majority leader McConnell well known, tweeting “can you believe that McConnell, who has screamed repeal & replace (Obamacare) for 7 years, couldn’t get it done…” and “…Mitch, get back to work…”. However, Trump was more conciliatory on special counsel Mueller, saying he “hasn’t given it any thought about firing Mueller” and that “I’m not dismissing anybody”. Elsewhere, NY Fed president Dudley cautioned that it will "take some time" for inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target, which is consistent with comments made by his colleagues earlier in the week. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the July PPI report was softer than expected. The core measure (ex-food & energy aggregate) was -0.1% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) and 1.8% yoy (vs. 2.1% expected). The PPI for healthcare services, which is closely correlated with that within the PCE deflator, rose a steady 1.4% yoy. Elsewhere, claims data were mixed, with initial jobless claims up 3k to 244k (vs. 240k expected) and continuing claims at 1,951k (vs. 1,960k expected). In Europe,France’s June industrial production (IP) was modestly lower than expectations at -1.1% mom (vs. -0.6% expected, 1.9% previous) and 2.6% yoy (vs. 3.1% expected), while manufacturing production was slightly better at -0.9% mom (vs. -1% expected) and 3.3% yoy (vs. 3.2% expected), which is just a bit weaker than Markit PMI readings had foreshadowed. Over in UK, IP for June was higher than expectations at 0.5% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and 0.3% yoy (vs. -0.1% expected), while June manufacturing production was flat and in line, at 0% mom and 0.6% yoy. The UK’s trade deficit also unexpectedly widened in June as exports fell but imports rose. Looking at the day ahead, the final CPI figures for Germany (1.5% yoy expected), France (0.8% yoy expected) and Italy (1.2% yoy expected) will be released. Over in the US, the main focus will be its inflation stats for July, with expectations at 0.2% mom (for core) and 1.7% yoy. Onto other events, the Fed’s Kaplan and Fed’s Kashkari will also speak today.

Выбор редакции
10 августа, 23:02

Tech Wrecks, Credit Crashes, & VIX Goes Vertical - "Probably Nothing"

"Pause that refreshes"   Well that escalated quickly... From the open on Tuesday, the "fire and fury" dump, the ubiquitous BTFD ramp dead cat bounce... and today's flush... "Not Off The Lows"   Summary: Nasdaq, Dow, S&P, Small Caps worst day in 3 months (to one month lows) S&P Tech Sector worst day in 2 months Financials worst day in 3 months HYG (HY Bond) worst 3-day move in 5 months (to lowest since March) VIX biggest 3-day spike since Aug 2015 China deval. Gold's best 3-day rally in 3 months Yuan biggest 3-day gain in 2 months Year-to-Date, Small Caps and Trannies are not doing so hot...   FANG Stocks plunged over 2.5% - worst day in two months - erasing all the NFLX earnings gains...   S&P VIX pushed up to 16, smashing through its 200DMA...this will be the highest close since the election   Nasdaq broke and closed below its 50DMA...   Nasdaq VIX topped 19 - its highest since June...   XIV (inverse VIX ETF) plunged to its 100DMA...   Black & Blue Apron...   Credit markets have suddenly woken up with HY spreads blowing out by the most in 5 months...   With HY Corporate bond prices broke below their 200DMA...   Treasury yields tumbled - bond prices erased all the losses post-payrolls...   With 30Y back to its lowest since June...   The Dollar Index slide for much of the day but accelerated lower after Trump's late-day comments...5th day in a row that the dollar has rallied overnight and into the European close and dumped after...   Yuan and Yen strength are dominating the downward pressure on the dollar...   Gold continued to surge - hitting two-month highs...   And WTI was clubbed on OPEC production headlines and chatter on Russian output increases...after the machines had run the $50 stops...   Stock markets starting to catch down to reality?   Long way to go yet...

10 августа, 13:48

World Markets Slide Spooked By Latest N.Korea Statement; Dollar, Gold, Oil Jump

European and Asian market and S&P futures have resumed their slide, as geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the U.S. spiked again overnight after Pyongyang responded to the latest set of warnings by Trump, revealing a plan to fire 4 ballistic missiles at Guam by mid-August. Gold gains for a third day while Brent rose above $53. Following de-escalation attempts by Rex Tillerson, and a NYT report that Trump's "fire and fury" statement had been improvised, markets saw a tentative recovery in risk appetite in overnight U.S. and early Asian trading, but a risk off mood returned again as Asian stocks fell back and London, Frankfurt and Paris dropped 0.5-1.2 percent in Europe, spooked by North Korea’s latest response to Trump, which dismissed as a "load of nonsense" warnings by President Trump that it would face "fire and fury" if it threatened the United States and in which a general outlined a detailed plan on state TV to fire four Hwasong-12 ICBM at Guam by mid-August, sending virtually every Asian market lower. "Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him" North Korea said of its diplomacy with Trump. Asia took the brunt of tonight's selloff, with Japan’s Topix index ended less than 0.1 percent lower, while South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.4 percent, adding to a 1.1 percent drop on Wednesday. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 1.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5 percent.  The won dropped to a four-week low and was trading 0.6 percent down, while the Japanese yen rose 0.2 percent to 109.80 per dollar, the strongest in eight weeks. "We saw a tentative recovery in risk appetite yesterday from the sell off inspired by North Korea but I think, justifiably that move is fading a little bit today," said Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John Hardy. With the escalating war of words rumbling on, Europe's German bund yield held near six-week lows. U.S. and British equivalents were also trading a touch above Wednesday's six-week lows. "We would currently be careful with a whiff of risk aversion in the air and, by extension, also stay away from shorts in the rates market," RBC's global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik said. As a result of the ongoing diplomatic fiasco, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for a second day of declines, following declines in markets from Hong Kong to Tokyo to Sydney, which also pressured S&P index futures fell. The greenback was firmer against most of its G-10 peers. Japan’s yen edged higher, extending yesterday’s increase as havens including gold continued to find support. Oil held gains above $49 a barrel as U.S. production eased and crude inventories extended declines. “The North Korea situation is still unstable and investors are controlling risk and taking profit after recent gains,” said Sam Chi Yung, a Hong Kong-based senior strategist at South  China Financial Holdings Ltd. Geopolitical tensions also pushed euro-area volatility sharply higher, with the VStoxx Index surging 27% since Tuesday’s close as European stocks added to their losses. The Stoxx 600 falls 0.6%, set for biggest back-to-back declines in three weeks, as the DAX hits lowest since April 21, down 2% so far this week. All European industry groups declined, with miners and energy shares faring the worst.  Utilities outperform selloff, sector is recommended by HSBC as a defensive refuge should European equities undergo a correction In currencies, as noted above, South Korea’s won led losses in emerging Asian currencies as tensions over the peninsula heightened. “USD/Asia should be somewhat supported today given the rise in geopolitical risk as North Korea and Trump keep up their back and forth,” said Julian Wee, a senior market strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “The weakness in equity markets suggests that the incendiary rhetoric has spooked the markets.” Traders added to positions in haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc, and pushed up the dollar index by unwinding some of the recent bets on the euro; the yen rose for a third day, outperforming all other Group-of-10 currencies.  Unrelated to Korea, the NZD was the notable underperformer overnight after the RBNZ monetary policy decision. The rate decision itself was met with choppy price action. However, the downside largely stemmed from comments by RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott who stated that "NZD needs to adjust lower", which saw NZD break through 0.7300, and was trading at 0.726 last. In China, the onshore yuan rises for 10th straight day vs trade-weighted basket to highest in nearly five months as People’s Bank of China strengthens fixing by most since June. As Bloomberg reports, as global investors turn increasingly risk averse amid tense relations between North Korea and the U.S., China’s currency is becoming an unlikely winner. The yuan is the best performer among 31 major peers since Friday, rising 1.1 percent to 6.6605 against the greenback. That compares with a 1.5 percent tumble by the South Korean won or a 0.5 percent drop by the Australian dollar. While China is North Korea’s key ally, the nation’s central bank has been supporting the yuan with a series of strong fixings, and bearish bets against the currency have receded after it rose above 6.7 per dollar. In addition to geopolitics, some of the biggest names in the asset management industry have already been warning that it’s time to take risk off the table. As reported yesterday, Pimco told investors to pare exposure to U.S. equities and junk bonds, but keep exposure to real assets, including commodities and gold. Separately, T. Rowe Price said it cut its stock allocation to the lowest level since 2000. Morgan Stanley strategists said investors should consider betting against U.S. junk-bonds as recent price weakness may be the beginning of a correction. In commodities, safe haven gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,278.04 an ounce, the strongest in two months. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.4 percent to $49.75 a barrel, the highest in more than a week, while Brent traded 0.8%, to $53.20 Today we get July PPI data (for core, 0.2% mom and 2.1% yoy expected), the monthly budget statement (-$54bn) and initial jobless claims and continuing claims figures. Fed’s Dudley will also speak today. Notable companies reporting include Nvidia, Snap, Macy’s and Newscorp. Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk Lingering geo-political concerns continue to weigh on Asian equities. NZD underperforms as the RBNZ kept a somewhat dovish-to-neutral tone. Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI and comments from Fed's Dudley. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,465.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 378.41 MSCI Asia down 0.5% to 159.73 MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.7% to 525.33 Nikkei down 0.05% to 19,729.74 Topix down 0.04% to 1,617.25 Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 27,444.00 Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,261.75 Sensex down 0.5% to 31,644.07 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.08% to 5,760.93 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,359.47 German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.433% Euro down 0.3% to 1.1729 per US$ Italian 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 1.722% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.424% Brent Futures up 0.6% to $53.03/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,278.98 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 93.70 Top Overnight News South Korea and Japan warned North Korea that it would face a strong response if it carried through with a threat to launch a missile toward the U.S. territory of Guam North Korea says ‘sound dialogue not possible’ with Trump; considering plan for striking at Guam through simultaneous fire of four missiles U.S. inflation is finally picking up -- or at least that’s the expectation of economists who have been wrong-footed by sub-par readings four months in a row Glencore Plc built a war chest in the first half of the year, continuing to cut debt as the world’s largest commodities trading house prepares to ramp up acquisitions West Virginia Governor Jim Justice said Donald Trump is “really interested” in his plan to prop up Appalachian mining by giving federal money to power plants that burn the region’s coal U.K. June Industrial Production m/m: 0.5% vs 0.1% est; ONS notes North Sea oil fields did not shut down for summer maintenance as normal, supporting production Norway July CPI y/y: 1.5% vs 1.4% est; core CPI 1.2% vs 1.1% est. RBNZ’s Wheeler: Would like to see a lower exchange rate, intervention in FX market is always open to us; Assistant Governor McDermott says RBNZ changed NZD language in a step toward intervention China Securities Journal: Govt. will soon release a package of measures to reduce leverage of state-owned enterprises; especially investments by central SOEs in financial sector Trump Seen Bypassing Acting FTC Chief in Favor of Outsider Disappointing U.K. Manufacturing, Trade Cap Sluggish Quarter Facebook Introduces Watch as New Platform for Shows NY Orders Con Edison to Take Action on Subway Power Reliability Perrigo Full Year Adjusted EPS Forecast Tops Estimates Monsanto Judge Angered by Lawyer’s Release of Roundup Documents Pepper Group Accepts KKR’s A$3.60-a-Share Cash Offer Facebook’s ‘Dazzling’ Stock May Belie Long-Term Risks: Grant’s MUFG Realizes Money Alone Can’t Build a Truly Global Bank Glencore Slashes Debt as It Positions for M&A in Commodities Asian indices tried to pick themselves up from the recent geopolitical-triggered losses, but failed and the upside gradually fizzled out throughout the session which saw the region's bourses negative across the board. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) failed to sustain the early gains as financials dragged Australia lower, while Japanese stocks reversed ahead of tomorrow's Mountain Day holiday. Markets in China lagged with the Shanghai Comp (-0.4%) dampened by a lukewarm liquidity operation and with China considering measures for deleveraging in state-owned enterprises, while Hang Seng (-1.1%) underperformed as investors used the escalation of global tensions as an opportunity to book profits in the index which had already surged by around 25% YTD. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded flat as the risk sentiment in Japan lacked conviction and with the BoJ's Rinban announcement somewhat tepid. On Thursday, the PBoC injected CNY 50bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 40bln in 14-day reverse repos. The PBoC set CNY mid-point 6.6770 at (Prey. 6.7075 Top Asian News Toshiba Reports Loss With Auditor’s Qualified Endorsement China Mobile Shares Surge as Carrier Adds Special Dividend SEC Delays Decision on Chinese Buyout of Chicago Exchange It’s Hard to Price an ‘Extinction Event’ Like a North Korea War South Korea, Japan Warn Kim Against Firing Missile at Guam Philippines Keeps Benchmark Rate at 3%, in Line With Forecasts Natco Tumbles to 6- Month Low on Expected Delay in Sclerosis Drug Malaysia Warns Traders Against Ringgit Derivatives in Singapore Billionaire Wang Plans Overhaul of Property Assets, Wanda Unit Another morning of declines in Europe with geo-political tensions at the forefront of investors' minds. Slight underperformance in the FTSE 100 amid a slew of Ex-Divs from a number of large cap names taking off roughly 40ppts. On a stock specific basis, much of the price action has been dictated by earnings with Adecco, Lanxess and Henkel among the worst performers following soft financial reports. Very quiet on this front with yields ticking up slightly across the German curve, peripheral spreads wider, albeit mildly so. Top European News Prudential Interim Dividend Per Share 14.5p Thyssenkrupp Debt Soars on Negative Third-Quarter Cash Flow Zurich Insurance CEO Greco Sees ‘Positive’ Signs for Dividend Dong Sees Early Shareholder Returns as Offshore Costs Tumble Adecco Slides as Sales Miss Estimates Amid Downturn in Hiring Mail.ru’s Russian Food Deliveries Surge as Sales Beat Estimates U.K. Homebuilders Slip as Residential Price Growth Slows Further Russian Gas Link Offshoot Taps Investors as Sanctions Swirl Shopping Cart Shows ECB Buying Italy Over France as Bonds Mature In currencies, the NZD was the notable underperformer overnight post the RBNZ monetary policy decision. The rate decision itself was met with choppy price action. However, the downside largely stemmed from comments by RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott who stated that "NZD needs to adjust lower", which saw NZD break through 0.7300. USD at better levels against its counterparts today, tensions remain at elevated levels between the US and North Korea, although focus is slightly edging towards key US data with US CPI figures to be released tomorrow. But, before that we get the PPI numbers out at midday. GBP saw a brief uptick to pare some of its losses this morning following firm than expected industrial output figures, however much of the other data had been erring to the softer side with the trade balance showing a wider deficit than analysts had expected. In commodities, oil prices up this morning with Brent breaking through USD 53 for the first time since May, however failed to consolidate above and has since retraced some of its gains. Precious metals also hovering at elevated levels. Gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,278.04 an ounce, the strongest in two months. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 240,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.96m, prior 1.97m 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2% 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.0%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 1.9%; Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 2.0% 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 49.6 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $52.0b deficit, prior $90.2b deficit Looking at the day ahead, there is the July PPI data (for core, 0.2% mom and 2.1% yoy expected), the monthly budget statement (-$54bn) as well as the initial jobless claims and continuing claims figures. Fed’s Dudley will also speak today. Notable companies reporting include Macy’s and Newscorp. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Over the last few days we've been wondering what it would take to knock the S&P 500 out of its 90 year record low trading range of no moves of bigger than 0.3% in either direction. After yesterday we can possibly rule out the threat of nuclear war as a catalyst as despite a sudden end to the peaceful markets of late, and a fairly notable global risk aversion, the S&P 500 managed to close only -0.04% lower and extend the daily record to 15 days without a closing move of bigger than 0.3%. Before we sound the all clear though as we'll see below, Asia is having a difficult session after markets initially opened up stronger. They have been seemingly tracking North Korea’s response to Mr Trump. According to the FT they have outlined a detailed plan on state TV to fire four Hwasong-12 ICBM at Guam by mid-August. As we type, the Nikkei is slightly lower (-0.2%), and the Kospi (-1%), Hang Seng (-1.6%) and Chinese bourses between -1% and -1.2% lower. The Hang Seng is on course for its worst day of 2017. The Korean Won has dipped a further 0.2% this morning and S&P futures -0.25% lower. This follows a day of relatively large intra-day moves across various market. The VIX surged ~15% higher to an intra-day peak of 12.63, before range trading and then finally sharply falling to close only 1.5% higher for the day (+0.15pts to 11.11). Over at UST 10Y, yields initially fell ~2bp before increasing back to be broadly flat for the day. The calming influence on the markets was likely due to US Secretary of State Tillerson signalling military confrontation was not imminent, saying that “Americans should sleep well tonight, have no concerns about this particular rhetoric of the last few days” while on a plane post a tour of Southeast Asia. Trump was also a bit more tempered later on and said via twitter, that the “…US nuclear arsenal is now far stronger than ever…but hopefully we will never have to use this power”. Nonetheless, the preference for safe haven assets was still apparent yesterday, with gold (+1.3%) and Swiss franc both modestly up (+1.1%). Over in European government bonds, core yields fell ~5bps at the longer end of the curve with bunds (2Y: -3bps; 10Y: -5bps), Gilts (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: -5bps) and French OATs (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: -4bps) rallying hard. Peripheral bond yields were a bit more mixed, with Portugal’s yield modestly down (2Y: -3bps; 10Y: -2bps), but the Italian BTPs actually up slightly (2Y: unch; 10Y: +1bp). Back to the non nuclear war part of the day, overnight two more Fed speakers echoed prior comments made by their colleagues earlier in the week. St. Louis Fed President Bullard cautioned that failure to get inflation to the Fed’s 2% target could undermine its credibility, “the misses add up over time”. Elsewhere, the Chicago Fed Chief Evans noted it would be “reasonable” to announce the start of balance sheet unwind next month. As far as conventional monetary policy is concerned, he noted the possibility that "We might be pretty close to neutral", and that despite the economy doing very well "...inflation might have some trouble getting up to 2%". Turning to market performance overnight, US bourses closed slightly lower despite the intraday actions, with the S&P (-0.1%), the Dow (-0.2%) and the Nasdaq (-0.3%) all lower but recovering into the close as discussed above. Within the S&P, modest gains in the Health care and materials sector were broadly offset by losses in utilities (-0.5%), consumer and telco names. After the bell, Twenty- First century Fox was up ~+1.5% post a result beat. In Europe, markets also weakened, with the Stoxx 600 down -0.7%. Within the index, only the utilities sector was up (+0.1%), while financials saw heavier losses (-1.5%). Across the region, indices all fell, with the DAX (-1.1%), FTSE 100 (-0.6%), CAC (-1.4%) and Italian FTSE MIB (-0.9%). Currency markets ended the day broadly unchanged, the US dollar index dipped 0.1% yesterday, but is slightly up this morning. Elsewhere, the Euro and Sterling both edged 0.1% higher against the USD, while Euro/Sterling softened for the second consecutive day. In commodities, WTI oil was up 0.8% following EIA’s report of a drop in crude inventories, although intraday gains were slightly pared back due to reports of a build-up in US gasoline stockpiles. Precious metals were higher yesterday (Gold: +1.3%; Silver +3%) but have softened a little this morning. Industrial metals were higher with Copper up 0.7% and Aluminium up  3.9%, marking a cumulative gain of ~9% over three days, likely reflecting reports of China increasing efforts to curtail illegal or polluting capacity. Away from the markets, the Washington Post has reported the FBI has searched a home belonging to Paul Manafort, who was Trump’s former campaign chairman. The search took place on 26th of July, but could be another sign that the federal probe into Russian involvement in the 2016 election is expanding. To recap, Manafort was Trump’s election campaign chairman from March to August 2016, but was forced to resign post increased scrutiny of his past work consulting for the Kremlin backed former Ukrainian president. Elsewhere, a $23bn 10-year US note sale drew a yield of 2.25%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.23, the second-weakest in the last eight years, which contrasts the strong demand for the three-year note yesterday where it’s bid-to-cover ratio was the highest since Dec. 15. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the preliminary 2Q nonfarm productivity stat was a little firmer than expectations at 0.9% (vs. 0.7% expected), leaving throughyear growth at the unrevised 1.2% yoy rate seen in 1Q. However, the growth in unit labour costs were weaker than expected at 0.6% (vs. 1.1%), although this quarter follows a large upward revision in the prior reading. Elsewhere, the final wholesale inventories for June was marginally higher at 0.7% mom (vs. flash estimate of 0.6%) and the MBA’s new purchase mortgage applications index rose 0.8% last week, with the four-week average rising 7.5% yoy. In Italy, industrial production for June was higher than expectations at 1.1% mom (vs. 0.2%), taking annual growth to 5.3% yoy (vs. 3.5% expected) – a bit closer to what the Markit manufacturing PMI has been suggesting. Looking at the day ahead, UK and France’s industrial production and manufacturing production data will be out in the morning, with expectations for UK’s IP at 0.1% mom (-0.1% yoy) and manufacturing production at flat mom (0.6% yoy). Further, June trade balance stats for UK (-£2500 expected) and Italy are also due. Over in the US, there is the July PPI data (for core, 0.2% mom and 2.1% yoy expected), the monthly budget statement (-$54bn) as well as the initial jobless claims and continuing claims figures. Onto other events, the Fed’s Dudley will speak today. Notable companies reporting include Macy’s and Newscorp in the US and ABN Amro closer to home.

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09 августа, 20:17

This Is How South Koreans Are Trading The North Korea Crisis

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Something odd is going on in the cryptocurrency world of Ethereum each time a North Korean headline hits the tape... The price of the cryptocurrency/platform Ethereum has soared in the last two weeks from under $180 to over $300 - massively outperforming its peers. At the same time South Korea's KOSPI has fallen just 3.5% and the Won dropped just 2.4% as its nuclear neighbor turns up the armageddon amplifier to '11'. Goldman explains 'What Is Ethereum?'   Answer: A Platform 1st, a Cryptocurrency 2nd. Ethereum differs primarily from Bitcoin in the latter is set up to be an alternative to ‘real money’ while the former is more of a platform set up to run any decentralized application and automatically execute “smart contracts” when certain conditions are met. Ethereum offers a digital currency like Bitcoin – called Ether – but this is just one component of its smart contract execution and primarily used to facilitate and reward using the network. However, the rise of Ethereum has not come without setbacks, including the ~$60 million hack of "The DAO", a venture capitallike organization with the mission of “investing” in Ethereum-related start-ups and projects (and is no longer operational today). Ethereum's recent dizzy rise and the catalysts for each volume surge... So who is panic-buying the cryptocurrency each time a new level of sabre-rattling-ocity is reached? For that, we look at the distribution of currencies traded in each virtual currency. As is obvious, Bitcoin's distribution is relatively even, Dollars, Yuan, Won etc... But one glance at Ethereum's distribution and it's clear that South Korea is dominant...far larger than Dollars or Yuan. Source: @JimmySong As Forbes recently wrote, Koreans are not only buying frequently -- they’re buying big, says Kim. “When I started buying Bitcoin [on a local exchange], I noticed a huge difference between the orders in the U.S. and Korea. In the U.S., they trade around $100 up to $5,000-$10,000 per trade. In Korea, these trade amounts are in $100,000 increments,” he said. He claims it reflects a huge interest from the upper class, namely children of family-owned "chaebol" conglomerates, investing their parents’ money. “People with regular day jobs can’t have this kind of volume. It’s too huge.” The fever continues -- even though the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum in Korea regularly surpass those at other major exchanges. Kim believes the price difference could reach up to 60%. So, is that it - while hot money EM flows dominate South Korea's FX and stock markets, decoupled from all comprehension of risk, are South Koreans dumping their hard-earned Won into Ethereum in hopes that after the bomb is dropped they'll still be able to cling to some of their wealth? Judging by the reaction to The New York Times' article this morning that Trump's "fire and fury" comments were less policy and more bluster, we suspect that ETH is the trade of choice to track South Koreans' level of war anxiety...   Update: Mattis re-raised the rhetoric "NK should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to end of its regime and destruction of its people".. and ETH surged... It would appear that Ethereum is the World War III indicator.

08 августа, 17:38

Now, A Trade War; Next A Shooting War?

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Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, A popular thesis since the 1930s is that a natural progression exists from currency wars to trade wars to shooting wars. Both history and analysis support this thesis. Currency wars do not exist all the time; they arise under certain conditions and persist until there is either systemic reform or systemic collapse. The conditions that give rise to currency wars are too much debt and too little growth. In those circumstances, countries try to steal growth from trading partners by cheapening their currencies to promote exports and create export-related jobs. The problem with currency wars is that they are zero-sum or negative-sum games. It is true that countries can obtain short-term relief by cheapening their currencies, but sooner than later, their trading partners also cheapen their currencies to regain the export advantage. This process of tit-for-tat devaluations feeds on itself with the pendulum of short-term trade advantage swinging back and forth and no one getting any further ahead. After a few years, the futility of currency wars becomes apparent, and countries resort to trade wars. This consists of punitive tariffs, export subsidies and nontariff barriers to trade. The dynamic is the same as in a currency war. The first country to impose tariffs gets a short-term advantage, but retaliation is not long in coming and the initial advantage is eliminated as trading partners impose tariffs in response. Trade wars produce the same result as currency wars. Despite the illusion of short-term advantage, in the long-run everyone is worse off. The original condition of too much debt and too little growth never goes away. Finally, tensions rise, rival blocs are formed and a shooting war begins. The shooting wars often have a not-so-hidden economic grievance or rationale behind them. The sequence in the early 20th century began with a currency war that started in Weimar Germany with a hyperinflation (1921–23) and then extended through a French devaluation (1925), a U.K. devaluation (1931), a U.S. devaluation (1933) and another French/U.K. devaluation (1936). Meanwhile, a global trade war emerged after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs (1930) and comparable tariffs of trading partners of the U.S. Finally, a shooting war progressed with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria (1931), the Japanese invasion of Beijing and China (1937), the German invasion of Poland (1939) and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (1941). Eventually, the world was engulfed in the flames of World War II, and the international monetary system came to a complete collapse until the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944. Is this pattern repeating itself today? Sadly, the answer appears to be yes. The new currency war began in January 2010 with efforts of the Obama administration to promote U.S. growth with a weak dollar. By August 2011, the U.S. dollar reached an all-time low on the Fed’s broad real index. Other nations retaliated, and the period of the “cheap dollar” was followed by the “cheap euro” and “cheap yuan” after 2012. Once again, currency wars proved to be a dead end. Now the trade wars have begun. On Thursday, July 27, the U.S. Congress passed one of the toughest economic sanctions bills ever and sent it to President Trump for signature. Trump signed it, although not enthusiastically. But Trump’s views don’t really matter. The bill was passed by veto-proof majorities in the House and Senate, so even if Trump vetoed the bill, Congress would have overrode him and the sanctions would become the law of the land. This new law provides that U.S. companies may not participate in Russian efforts to explore for oil and gas in the Arctic. But it goes further and says that even foreign companies that do business with Russia in Arctic exploration will be banned from U.S. markets and U.S. contracts. These new sanctions pose an existential threat to Russia because depends heavily on oil and gas revenue to propel its economy. Russia tries to control new discoveries in order to maintain its quasi-monopoly position as the premier energy provider to Europe. Russia needs Western technology to meet the challenges of Arctic exploration. In effect, this law handicaps Russia’s efforts financially and technologically and weakens its grip on global energy markets. Russia has already vowed to retaliate. Yet Russian retaliation will not consist of reciprocal sanctions on the U.S. Russia has said it will strike “asymmetrically.” This means Russia will use the means it is best at, including cyberattacks. If you wake up one day soon and the power grid is down and banks and stock exchanges are closed, you can thank President Putin and the U.S. Congress for starting a financial and cyberwar that neither side could control. Meanwhile, the long-expected trade war with China has begun at last. This is a trade war that President Trump threatened the entire time while he was on the campaign trail. Yet after Trump was sworn in as president he did nothing about Chinese trade and currency practices. Trump did not declare China a “currency manipulator” and did not impose tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum being dumped on U.S. and world markets. The reason Trump did not act swiftly was because he wanted China’s help facing North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. If China would put pressure on North Korea, Trump would go easy on China. But China did not hold up their end. China has done nothing to change North Korea’s behavior and will not do so in the future. Now Trump has no reason to hold back. The White House has already begun to unleash its formidable arsenal of trade weapons against China. The Trump administration has made clear its intentions to impose tariffs on cheap Chinese steel and aluminum and to punish China for theft of U.S. intellectual property. After that, more action will be taken to punish Chinese banks that help North Korea finance its weapons programs. The U.S. can block acquisitions of U.S. firms by Chinese companies through review by a group called the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS. That committee has already blocked several Chinese deals and has many more stuck in the review pipeline. By November, the U.S. will label China a currency manipulator, which will start another review process, leading to still further sanctions. Like Russia, China will not take any of this lying down but will retaliate with its own sanctions, tariffs and bans on U.S. investment in China. Get ready for an all-out financial war between the U.S. and China. This trade and currency war will shake markets and be a major headwind for world growth. Germany is also in the crosshairs because of its huge trade surplus. Trump has already torn up the TPP trade agreement and has put Canada, Mexico and South Korea on notice that their trade deals need to be renegotiated. None of these trading partners will stand still for this U.S. assault on bilateral trading relations. Retaliation can be expected. A full-scale trade war is now upon us. Next comes the shooting war with North Korea, which will inevitably draw in Russia, China, South Korea and Japan. This will be tantamount to World War III. As Mark Twain reputedly remarked, “History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.” Today looks like a replay of the 1930s. Let’s hope things do not go as far as they did then. Markets are not priced for the worst outcomes based on the lessons of history. As the progression of currency wars, trade wars and shooting wars plays out, get ready for some major market moves to the downside as the reality of this sequence begins to sink in.

08 августа, 13:47

Global Stocks Hit Another Record High, Ignore Slowing Chinese Trade

Following a sleepy overnight session, US futures are flat as are markets in Europe, while Asian stocks rose despite overnight trade data from China which unexpectedly missed across the board. As reported last night, Chinese export growth was the slowest since February while Import growth the weakest since Dec 2016, as both missed consensus estimtes. Paradoxically, the bad report sent the MSCI EM Asia stock index higher for a third day to its highest since November 2007, with the poor Chinese trade data promptly spun as positive: "It looks like China’s trade data is taken as a half-full omen with the softer (than expected) exports mitigating risks of U.S. protectionism,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore." Continuing an unprecedented run of record highs, global stocks inched up to a new all-time high on Tuesday, shrugging off China's data. The MSCI's all-country world index ticked up to set a new record high at 480.76 points. It was last up less than 0.1 percent at 480.54 points. The index, which tracks shares in 46 countries, is on track for longest monthly winning streak since 2003. According to Reuters, "shares across the globe have been hitting record highs in record low volatility supported by a benign environment for global growth." "Data continue to suggest a synchronized global expansion across both advanced and emerging market economies. Spill-overs from the rebound in emerging market demand are reflected in the fastest growth in world trade since 2010," said Fitch chief economist Brian Coulton. The Chinese trade data was so poor, pardon great, the Chinese yuan (and South Korean won) led gains as emerging Asian currencies advance on a broadly weaker U.S. dollar.  The onshore yuan strengthened as much as 0.4% to 6.6970 vs USD for biggest intraday rally since July 27, rising above 6.7 for the first time since October. In currency markets, the dollar dipped for a second consecutive day after rising on Friday following stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers, which some analysts said bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. However, many in markets remain unpersuaded the Fed will increase the cost of borrowing again this year. St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Monday the central bank could leave rates where they are for now because inflation was not likely to rise much. "(They) seemed to oppose further rate hikes. That means they exactly reflect the current market expectations, which are limiting the dollar’s appreciation," wrote analysts at Commerzbank in Frankfurt in a morning note to clients. "It is still inflation that poses the problem," they added Overnight the Aussie dollar advanced on rising business confidence but - unlike the Yuan - was weighed down by disappointing China trade data. The Euro rose for second day as upside momentum remains strong, and last Friday's strong payrolls beat is largely forgotten. West Texas Intermediate crude started on the back foot but reversed during European hours; WTI crude continued its rise, and is rapidly approaching $50 again: the question is whether it can take out the resistance level and hold above it.  This morning, all eyes will be on the South Africa’s rand as lawmakers prepare to decide the fate of President Jacob Zuma in a secret ballot at 2:00pm local time (8:00am ET). The currency steadied after yesterday’s jump even as 1-week implied vol surged to a 4 month high. Markets remain in a holding pattern, with investors seeking catalysts amid the summer slowdown and the S&P hasn't moved more than 0.3% intraday for 13 consecutive days: the longest stretch on record. The focal point of this week looks set to be Friday’s U.S. inflation data, which will be key to the interest-rate outlook of the world’s biggest economy, Bloomberg writes. Two Federal Reserve officials said on Monday that soft inflation was a problem, but played down the risk of market disruption when the central bank starts shrinking its balance sheet. “Markets are in sleep mode,” Hussein Sayed, a strategist at Forextime Ltd., a retail currency broker, wrote in an emailed note. “Limited news flow is what can be blamed for the narrow trading ranges, but expect this to change as we get closer to Friday’s U.S. CPI release.” MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan proved relatively resilient, inching up 0.2 percent and back toward decade highs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 0.6 percent. South Korea dipped 0.2 percent, while Japan's Nikkei eased 0.3 percent and China's main markets edged up 0.1 percent.  Japan’s Topix index fell 0.2 percent at the close with SoftBank Group Co. declining even after profit topped estimates. Sony Corp. gained after it was added to the JPX-Nikkei Index 400. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.5 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.2 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was slightly weaker, headed for a second day of declines as most benchmark gauges in the region fell, though moves were not large. Germany’s DAX Index declined less than 0.05 percent while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index sank 0.1 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose less than 0.05 percent to the highest on record. Energy company shares rose as oil prices steadied from recent falls as sources told Reuters Saudi Arabia would cut crude supplies next month. Futures on the S&P 500 Index dipped 0.1 percent to 2,475.25. Treasuries were little changed before a $24 billion three-year note auction, the first of three debt sales this week. In currencies, the euro climbed 0.1 percent to $1.1814. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 percent, the largest fall in more than a week on a closing basis. The British pound declined less than 0.05 percent to $1.3044. South Africa’s rand rose less than 0.05 percent to 13.2396 per dollar. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 2.26%. Britain’s 10-year yield climbed one basis point to 1.14%. In commodities, gold gained 0.2 percent to $1,260.24 an ounce, the biggest rise in more than a week. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $49.48 a barrel, the highest in more than a week. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities trade with little in the way of firm direction. Miners underperform post-Chinese trade data FX markets also trade in a tentative manner with newsflow light throughout the EU session thus far Looking ahead, highlights include JOLTS, APIs and a US 3yr note auction Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.06% to 2,476.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.05% to 381.83 MSCI up 0.1% to 161.47 MSCI ex Asia up 0.2% to 532.62 Nikkei down 0.3% to 19,996.01 Topix down 0.2% to 1,635.32 Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 27,854.91 Shanghai Composite up 0.07% to 3,281.87 Sensex down 0.8% to 32,028.33 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,743.75 Kospi down 0.2% to 2,394.73 Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,260.97 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.30 German 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 0.455% Euro up 0.2% to 1.1813 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.3% to $52.54/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 1.703% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 1.438% Top Overnight News Republicans struggling to pass a major tax overhaul that doesn’t add to the federal deficit are discussing a kind of compromise: mixing permanent revisions with temporary rate cuts for individuals and businesses St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari said soft U.S. inflation was a problem, broadly in line with expectations that officials will keep interest rates on hold when they meet next month and announce the start of a gradual process to trim their holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. South Africa’s rand could surge if President Jacob Zuma is ousted by a motion of no confidence in the nation’s parliament, though gains would reverse if Zuma survives the vote, analysts say China’s trade surplus widened for a fifth month in July as export growth remained solid and imports moderated, keeping the spotlight on a trade gap U.S. President Donald Trump aims to narrow Google Fires Author of Divisive Memo on Gender Differences Citigroup Agrees to $130 Million Settlement of Libor Claims China’s Trade Surplus Widens for Fifth Month as Imports Moderate Pfizer Is Said to Weigh Sale of Erectile Dysfunction Treatment Liberty Global 2Q Operating Cash Flow Beats Highest Estimate Rental Car Stocks May Move After Avis Cuts Profit Forecast InterContinental First Half Revenue Misses Estimates Pandora CEO Warns of Challenging U.S. Market Ahead; Shares Sink McDonald’s to Increase Restaurants in China to 4,500 from 2,500 Disney, Fox May Move After Positive Ad Market Comments From CBS AMD to Shift Some Orders to TSMC: Commercial Times China Keeps More Steel at Home as Exports Tumble to 2013 Low Wells Fargo Is Said to Face SF Fed Inquiry on Car Insurance: NYT Asian equity markets failed to sustain the momentum from the record closes seen in DJIA and S&P 500, as sentiment in the region soured amid relatively quiet news flow and as participants digested the latest Chinese trade data. ASX 200 (-0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) saw early selling pressure, with the Australian market the underperformer on broad based declines, aside from the mining sector which remained resilient after continued gains in iron ore prices. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.1%) were initially subdued after Chinese Imports and Exports both missed estimates, while regulatory concerns also persisted with the PBoC seeking to tighten fintech rules to prevent risks. However, both indices then recovered heading into the close. 10yr JGBs were flat as demand failed to garner support from the deterioration of risk tone in the region, while the 30yr auction was also uneventful with the results relatively in-line with the previous month. Chinese Trade Balance (CNY) (Jul) 321.2bln vs. Exp. 293.55b1n (Prey. 294.30bn). Chinese Exports (CNY) (Jul) Y/Y 11.2% vs. Exp. 14.8% (Prey. 17.3%) Chinese Imports (CNY) (Jul) Y/Y 14.7% vs. Exp. 22.6% (Prey. 23.1%) Chinese Balance of Trade (USD) (Jul) 46.70bln vs. Exp. 45.00bln (Prey. 42.75bn). Chinese Exports (USD) (Jul) Y/Y 7.2% vs. Exp. 11.0% (Prey. 11.3%) Chinese Imports (USD) (Jul) Y/Y 11.0% vs. Exp. 18.0% (Prey. 17.2%) Top Asian News HNA’s Singapore Partner Is Said to Explore Scaling Back Ties China Developers Sink as World’s Biggest Stock Rally Loses Steam Sony Bonds Lose Allure as Spread Too Tight, Says BNP Paribas Goldman Sachs TP Upgrade Pushes China Harmony to 11-Month High Hong Kong Stocks Advance on Earnings Optimism and Auto Sales Malaysia Weighs Dual-Class Shares as Exchanges Battle for IPOs Reliance Is Said to Plan Refinancing as $12 Billion Debt Matures Profit-Taking? SoftBank Drags Topix Down Despite Strong Earnings Directionless trade in another quiet summer trading session (Eurostoxx 50 flat), material names falling after mixed Chinese trade data as exports and imports missed expectations. Pandora among the worst performers in Europe following soft financial results. BTPs outperforming largely as yields fall to 6-week lows. As a reminder, yesterday's monthly bond purchases from the ECB showed the ECB bought more Italian bonds in July than the capital key would imply, as it bought EUR 9.623b1n Italian bonds, almost EUR 1.5bln more than the capital key would dictate. In turn, this has the GER-ITA 10Y spread tighten as much as 13bps. Top European News Rising U.K. Energy Imports Need Brexit Care, Centrica Says ECB Redemptions Boost Average Maturity of French Bond Purchases AA Hits Record Low; Credit Suisse Downgrades on Roadside Outlook Standard Life Has $4.8 Billion Outflows Before Aberdeen Deal Siltronic Drops After Sumco Wafer Capacity Expansion Plan Power Maker CEZ Boosts 2017 Earnings Forecast on Higher Margins Brexit Bill Somewhere Between Zero and EU100B, Jones Says U.K. Must Provide Clarity on Post-Brexit Laws, Top Judge Says In currencies,  the Aussie saw some selling pressure following the Chinese Imports and Export misses on expectations. AUD/USD came off best levels overnight and is could look to retest 0.79. The greenback struggled throughout the US and Asian sessions, as the gains seen on Friday were retraced. Fed speech was the them in the US yesterday, however, comments from Bullard and Kashkari were largely rebuffed by markets. A marginal flight to safety further weighed on the US dollar, as twitter reports stated US satellites detected North Korea moving 2 anti-ship cruise missiles to patrol boat on the east coast over the past few days, according to officials. Both EUR & GBP gained ground against the dollar, with cable looking for a break of 1.3050, however, ran into some offers around 1.3055. EUR/USD saw similar price action, breaking through 1.18, however finding some resistance above these levels. In the Yen, a spike through Friday's post NFP range caused some escalated selling pressure in USD/JPY, as the pair broke through 110.70 overnight, bears will look to target the 110.00 handle to spark any continued downside pressure In commodities, relatively quiet in the commodity complex with oil prices slightly firmer. Of note, industry sources noted that Saudi Arabia noted that Saudi Arabia is to cut crude allocations in September by at least 520k bpd. Australia July Port Hedland iron ore exports fell to 37.9mln tonnes vs. Prey. 43.lmln tonnes. China Commodities Trade Data showed July YTD copper and product imports fell 15.2% Y/Y to 2.62m1n tonnes. Looking at the day ahead, there is the NFIB small business optimism index for July (103.5 expected) and the JOLTS job openings data. In China, the July CPI (1.5% yoy expected) and PPI (5.6% yoy expected) data will be out in early Wednesday morning. Notable US companies due to report include: Walt Disney, CVS Health, Gartner and Priceline. US Event Calendar 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 103.5, prior 103.6 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 5,700, prior 5,666 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If it wasn't for the fact that my exponentially increasing domestic financial responsibilities force me to act as professional as I can be, I'd be tempted to make today's EMR last no longer than a couple of sentences as all you really need to know about markets at the moment is that yesterday's move in the S&P 500 (+0.16%) added to the record daily run of less than 0.3% moves in either direction. It’s now 13 days since we had a larger move using daily data back to 1927. The second longest streak of this length was of 10 days which has happened twice in history. The most recent time was in England's solitary football World Cup winning year (06 Jan 1966 - 19 Jan 1966), and the other between 15 Nov 1961 and 29 Nov 1961. So these continue to be remarkable financial times we are living through. To put the steady but relentless rally in the S&P in context, it is now 73 trading days since the S&P increased by more than 1% in any one day. Give it another 7 days and we will beat the prior record set back in November 06 and March 07. Although, given the current lull in the activity (VIX now back to below 10), we might even get close to the 100 day record set back in mid-July 1995 to early Dec 1995. To punctuate the quiet, this week we will get to hear the latest thinking from a few Fed speakers. Overnight, both the St. Louis Fed president Bullard and Minneapolis Fed Chief Kashkari sounded a bit dovish. On rates, Bullard noted that the Fed funds rate target is “likely to remain appropriate over the near term”, considering recent inflation data has “surprised to the downside”. On balance sheet unwind, Bullard is ready to start the Fed’s balance sheet unwind in September and Kashkari noted that shrinking the bank’s large portfolio will be very orderly and won’t be disruptive to financial markets. On inflation, Kashkari said “inflation has been coming up short, relative to our 2% target” and cautioned “that actually matters…because in future crisis, we really need people to believe in us". This morning in Asia, China’s July exports were lower than expectations at 7.2% yoy (vs. 11% expected; 11.3% prior), although imports were also lower at 11% yoy (vs. 18% expected), leading to a stronger trade surplus of $46.7bn (vs. $45bn expected). Asian markets sold off a little post the Chinese data, but recovered to be slightly down as we type. Across the region, the Nikkei (-0.3%), Kospi (-0.1%), and Shanghai Comp (-0.2%) are lower with the Hang Seng (+0.1%) slightly higher. Back to last night's session and US bourses strengthened further, with the S&P 500 and the Dow up slightly (+0.1% to +0.2%) and remaining at record levels. That said, trading volume was thin in the S&P, with the daily value traded at 0.14% of the index market cap, which is only ~40% of the historical average. Within the S&P, modest gains in consumer staples and IT were largely offset by losses in energy (-0.9%) and financials (-0.2%). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 dipped 0.1%, with a rise in the materials sector (+0.7%) largely shrugging off the softer German industrial data. Across the region, the DAX slipped -0.3%, while other markets were slight up, with the FTSE 100 (+0.3%), CAC (+0.1%) and the Italian FTSE MIB (+0.4%) higher. As a stock take for European reporting season thus far, DB’s Wolf von Rotberg notes that of the 74% of Stoxx 600 companies that have reported, 54% have beaten EPS expectations (in line to historical average, but lower than 1Q at 61%). EPS growth is running at 19%, ahead of the 8% consensus expectation for the companies that have reported so far. EPS beats have been strongest for tech (69%), energy (67%) and financials (66%, particularly banks). Excluding energy and financials, EPS growth does drop to ~3% for companies that have reported thus far. Over in government bonds, yields were broadly lower, with the German bunds (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: -1bps), Italian BTPs (2Y: unch; 10Y: -2bps) and OATs (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: -1bp) all slightly lower at the long end of the curve. Gilts were down 4bps at both the 2Y and 10Y after weaker consumer data (see below). Over in the US, the 10Y fell marginally (-1bp) yesterday, but has recovered a little this morning. Turning to currency markets and the Euro continues to edge higher, with the Euro/USD up 0.2% and Euro/Sterling up 0.3% to 0.905, which represent a ~7.5% gain since May and now getting close to its one year high of 0.9118. Elsewhere, the US dollar index dipped 0.1% overnight. In commodities, WTI oil slipped 0.4%, following reports of rebounding Libyan supply and compliance issues with promised OPEC production cuts only 86% in July. Currently, producers have gathered in Abu Dhabi for a two day meeting to discuss oversupply issues. So watch for any headlines. Elsewhere, precious metals were broadly unchanged (Gold +0.1%; Silver flat), while industrial metals were up modestly (Copper +0.7%; Aluminium +2.5%), Iron ore has continued to increase, up 2.8% overnight to be ~43% higher than its June low. Away from the markets, as part of its annual stress tests designed by the Fed and FHFA,Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would need to draw between $34.8bn to $99.6bn in Treasury aid under a "severely adverse" scenario, with key assumptions including: i) a 6.5% decline in GDP, ii) a rise in the unemployment rate to 10% and iii) a 25% fall in home prices. Elsewhere, the rhetoric from North Korea has heated up, with its Foreign Minister declining to negotiate over its nuclear program until the US ceases hostile policies and noted that its nuclear weapons will only be used against US and its allies, and that the state will make the US pay dearly. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, consumer credit was lower than expectations, up US $12.4bn in June (vs. $15.8bn expected; $18.3bn previous), leading the throughyear growth rate to slow a tenth to 5.7% yoy. Monthly growth in non-revolving credit fell to a 12-month low and was mainly responsible for the slowdown in overall growth. In Germany, the June industrial production stats were lower than expectations at -1.1% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) and 2.4% yoy (3.7% expected). However, despite the decline in June, annualized growth in output through Q2 stood at a sturdy 7.1% saar. In UK, the BRC retail sales monitor for like for like sales in July was in line at 0.9% yoy, which contrast the Visa-Markit survey earlier which pointed to a 0.8% yoy decline in consumer spending in July (vs. -0.2% previous, longest streak of declines since 2013). Elsewhere, the Halifax house price index rose 0.4% mom in July (vs. 0.3% expected), with the throughyear growth in the three-month average in line at 2.1% yoy. Looking at the day ahead, Germany’s June trade balance (23bn expected), current account balance (24.5bn expected), export and import stats (both 0.2% mom expected) are due in early morning. France will also report its June trade balance and current account figures. Over in the US, there is the NFIB small business optimism index for July (103.5 expected) and the JOLTS job openings data. In China, the July CPI (1.5% yoy expected) and PPI (5.6% yoy expected) data will be out in early Wednesday morning. Notable US companies due to report include: Walt Disney, CVS Health, Gartner and Priceline. Closer to home, we have Deutsche Post due to report in Europe.

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08 августа, 05:23

Yuan Spikes After China Export Growth Tumbles To 5-Month Lows

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Just as we warned, the EM exuberance has faded and China's torrid trade growth has suddenly slowed dramatically. Offshore Yuan is spiking after both China Imports and Exports dramatically missed expectations. China customs administration announces data in yuan terms in statement: July exports climbed 11.2% y/y; median est. 14.8% rise y/y (range +12.1% to +16.5%, 10 economists). July imports climbed 14.7% y/y; median est. 22.6% rise (range +16.0% to +26.9%, 10 economists) July trade surplus 321.2b yuan; median est. 293.6b yuan surplus (range 250b-348.3b yuan surplus, 10 economists) Export growth is now the slowest since February (lower than the lowest estimate) and Import growth is now the weakest since Dec 2016 (lower than the lowest estimate)...   The most obvious reaction in markets was a jump in Bitcoin and spike in Offshore Yuan...   Of course, as Bloomberg reports, the world’s largest exporter is confronting more uncertainty, as U.S. President Trump continues sporadic tough talk on China. The White House may beconsidering an investigation into alleged intellectual property violations, which could risk igniting broader trade conflict. Citic Securities Co. said in a researchreport that rising U.S. protectionism coupled with anti-globalization sentiment in Europe will take its toll on China’s exports.

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07 августа, 16:29

China's Reserves Continue To Decline As Capital Outflows Accelerate, "Outbound Travel Spending" Surges

The confusion over the direction of Chinese capital flows continues to grow. On one hand, overnight the PBOC reported that China’s foreign-exchange reserves "posted a sixth straight monthly increase" as the yuan strengthened and economic growth remained robust, Bloomberg reported. Specifically, Beijing said that China's foreign currency stockpile rose $23.9 billion to $3.081 trillion in July, higher than the $3.075 trillion estimate. The narrative was ready to go: as Bloomberg stated, "solid economic data and the presence of curbs on moving money abroad have helped restore confidence in the currency and ease outflow pressure. The foundation for steadier cross-border capital flows has become more solid, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said last month." Of course, Bloomberg was merely going off what the PBOC reported, which showed continued increases in official reserves: Economist responses were quick to praise this ongoing shift in the recent outflow regime: "Capital outflows have eased markedly since the start of the year and are now mostly offset by the trade surplus," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, a China economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Singapore. "This shift should prove supportive of the renminbi, which we think will strengthen against the U.S. dollar during the next couple of years." "Depreciation expectations in the market have definitely abated, and outflow pressure has eased," said Zhu Qibing, chief macro-economy analyst at BOC International China Ltd. in Beijing. He expects reserves to hover around the current level for the rest of the year. "This is enough to change market expectations from yuan depreciation to appreciation," said Iris Pang, an analyst at ING Groep NV in Hong Kong. "The pressure on capital outflows has eased a lot, but I don’t think regulators will relax curbs." "Today’s data on FX reserves perfectly fits the latest change of mood regarding the Chinese currency," Frederik Kunze, chief China economist at German lender NordLB in Hanover, said in an email. "Fears with respect to a pronounced depreciation of the RMB against the USD have receded substantially. Attention will likely start to focus on more liberalization measures." On the other hand, there was just one problem with the above assessments of China's inflows: they are all completely incorrect. While those, such as the "experts" listed above may be left with the impression that China has managed to put a lid on its relentless capital outflow pressure, using a separate gauge compiled by China's SAFE which tracks onshore FX settlement as well as cross-border RMB flows, shows something vastly different: as calculated by Goldman, China has not had a single month of FX inflows since its mid-2015 Yuan devaluation as shown in the chart below. And while we have yet to get the July SAFE data, even a simple assessment of the latest release shows that outflows continued for yet another month. As Goldman calculates this morning, while the PBOC’s FX reserves "increased" by US$24bn in July to US$3.081tn, after adjusting for currency valuation effects, reported reserves actually decreased by US$10bn, to wit: We estimate currency valuation effects at about +US$34bn in July. Excluding such estimated effects, reported FX reserves would have fallen US$10bn (vs. –US$8bn in June). However, because of various technical factors (including noisy valuation effect estimates), we have been instead relying on other PBOC and SAFE data (listed below) for a better sense of the underlying flow picture. As usual, watch for subsequently released PBOC and SAFE flow data to confirm that Beijing has been fibbing just a little about the underlying FX flow, which at least on the surface suggest 6 months of inflows when in reality it is merely tracking the weakness in the dollar. There's more: as Goldman notes, monthly outbound travel spending by Chinese residents jumped 47% yoy (to US$29bn) in June. SAFE has subsequently brought forward the implementation of required reporting of large-sized bank card transactions overseas (from Sep 1 to Aug 21). Exhibit 1: Outbound travel spending surged in June: Some more commentary on this curious development: Service trade data released last week shows a significant jump in Chinese residents’ outbound travel spending in June (Exhibit 1), which increased 47% yoy (or about US$9bn in sequential seasonally adjusted terms). Note that SAFE first announced in early June that it would tighten the reporting requirement on bank cards’ overseas usage (banks will need to report any card transactions overseas that involve more than RMB 1,000, or about US$150), with implementation on Sep 1. The subsequent rise in outbound travel spending might partly reflect attempts to front-run the rule implementation (especially as some of the outbound travel spending could be disguised capital outflow). But in SAFE's most recent communication late last week regarding the new reporting requirement, the implementation date has now been brought forward, to Aug 21. Overall, the authorities have remained vigilant in using various macro-prudential measures to discourage undesired outflows, which should continue to mitigate the near-term need for the authorities to sell FX to support the currency As a reminder, to get confirmation of the ongoing outflows, on August 16 SAFE will release additional data which will detail: i) PBOC FX position (spot; net of valuation effects): around mid-Aug; ii) Goldman's preferred measure of underlying FX flow (based on SAFE data on FX settlement onshore and cross-border RMB flow): Aug 16; and iii) PBOC's reported forward position: end-Aug.

07 августа, 15:35

Key Events In The Coming Vacation Week: All About Inflation

With the traditional post-payrolls market lull setting in, and most trading desks taking a week or two off, it will be a relatively quiet week with attention turning to inflation data with releases in the US, China, Norway & Switzerland, a key factor as central banks consider if/when to tighten in the near future. The US print will gain most attention: a strong number will validate the Fed's balance sheet unwind intentions and a potential December rate hike. The major US release for the week comes on Friday in the form of July’s CPI. As RanSquawk notes, analysts expect the headline to come in at 1.8% YY from 1.6% last time out, while the core reading is expected to rise by 1.8% YY from 1.7% last time out. The core metric has missed expectations over the last four releases. HSBC opines that “One major reason why core inflation has softened this year has been a slowdown in the pace of increase in rents.” At its most recent decision the Federal Reserve noted that it is “monitoring inflation developments closely” while it is of the belief that “inflation will remain somewhat below 2% in near term, but stabilise around 2% in medium-term.” This is of course against a back drop of limited wage growth. It is also worth noting that North American liquidity will be lower on Monday owing to a Canadian national holiday. Other releases of note during the week: Monday US Fed Labour Market Conditions Index (Jul) Tuesday US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) Wednesday US Nonfarm Productivity (Q2) US Unit Labour Costs (Q2) US Wholesale Inventories (Jun) Thursday US PPI (Jul). There will be some July China macro data released, starting with FX reserves on Monday. Chinese trade data for July is due on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the surplus to widen to USD 46.08bln from USD 42.77bln last time out. HSBC believe that “exports growth likely remained strong in July supported by still resilient external demand.” The latest Caixin manufacturing PMI gives credence to this view, as it pointed to new export orders expanding at a faster pace. On the import front HSBC expect that “import growth remained strong, supported by the broad-based nature of the economic recovery.” In EM, there are monetary policy meetings in Mexico, Peru and the Philippines. Other releases of note during the week: Monday Chinese FX Reserves (Jul) Tuesday Japanese Current Account (Jun) Australian NAB Business Survey (Jul) Wednesday Australian Housing Finance Data (Jun) Thursday Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations (Jul) During the week: Chinese New Yuan Loans & Money Supply Data (Jul) US inflation, Fedspeak & China data After a robust NFP report, focus this week turns to US inflation prints. We expect core CPI to accelerate to a 0.2% m/m clip in July, ending a four-month streak of subdued prints. We also hear from several Fed speakers, including NY Fed President Dudley. July macro data from China will also be released over the next two weeks, starting with Monday's FX reserves data. Our economists expect the July reading of activity growth to moderate from June's strong levels. CPI likely stayed flat, while PPI may continue to ease on base effects. Meanwhile, headline new credit data have likely declined, but M2 growth may rebound modestly. The week ahead in Emerging Markets There are monetary policy meetings in Mexico, Peru and the Philippines. Sovereign rating review in South Africa In other data In the US, inflation will be the main focus, but we also have non-farm productivity and unit labor costs, the monthly budget statement and several Fed speakers. In the Eurozone, a very quiet week ahead with no key data releases. We have final CPI and industrial & manufacturing production for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. In the UK, we get industrial & manufacturing production, construction output and trade balance. In Japan, we get the current account and trade balance, money supply, machine orders and PPI. In Australia, RBA Governor Lowe is due to appear before the parliamentary economic committee and we hear a speech by Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent. On the data front, we receive both consumer and business sentiment and housing finance approvals. In New Zealand, focus will be on the RBNZ, though we also get the manufacturing PMI and RBNZ Governor Wheeler will also appear before Parliament Select Committee. A detailed breakdown of the main weekly events courtesy of DB's Jim Reid Monday starts with Germany’s industrial production figures for June in early morning, followed by UK’s July Halifax house price index and then US’s consumer credit stats for July. On Tuesday, Japan’s balance of  payments and trade balance figures for June will be out in early morning. Then Germany’s June trade balance, current account, export and import stats are due. France will also report its June trade balance and current account figures. Over in the US, there is the NFIB small business optimism index for July. Turning to Wednesday, China’s CPI and PPI for July will be out in early morning. Later on, Italy’s June industrial production figures and Bank of France’s business sentiment indicator are also due. Over in the US, there is the 2Q nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data, June wholesale inventories as well as the MBA mortgage applications. For Thursday, the June industrial production and manufacturing production figures for UK and France will be out. Further, June trade balance stats for UK and Italy are also due. Over in the US, we have the July PPI data, the monthly budget statement as well as the initial jobless claims and continuing claims figures. On Friday, the final CPI figures for Germany, France and Italy will  be released. Over in the US, CPI stats for July are also due. Onto other events, today starts with speeches from the Fed’s Bullard and the Fed’s Kashkari, followed by the OPEC/Non-OPEC joint technical committee meeting in Abu Dhabi. Then on Thursday, the Fed’s Dudley will speak. Onto Friday, the Fed’s Kaplan and Fed’s Kashkari will also speak. Finally we'll still have earnings season continuing on both sides of the Atlantic but we're now past the peak. * * * Finally, here is a table from BofA and guidance from Goldman with a breakdown of the key US events together with consensus estimtes The key economic release this week is the CPI report on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. Monday, August 7 11:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the America’s Cotton Marketing Cooperatives’ annual conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 01:25 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated audience Q&A session at an event hosted by the Sioux Falls Rotary Club in South Dakota. 03:00 PM Consumer credit, June (consensus +$15.25bn, last +$18.41bn) Tuesday, August 8 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, June (consensus 5,700k, last 5,666k) Wednesday, August 9 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity (qoq saar), Q2 preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.7%, last flat); Unit labor costs, Q2 preliminary (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.0%, last +2.2%): We estimate non-farm productivity increased 0.6% in Q2 (qoq ar), modestly below the 0.75% average achieved during this expansion. We expect unit labor costs – compensation per hour divided by output per hour – to increase 1.1% (qoq saar). 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, June final (consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%) 11:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester will give the keynote speech at the Community Bankers Association of Ohio’s Annual Convention in Cincinnati, Ohio. 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will discuss current economic conditions and monetary policy in a closed group interview with representatives of the press in Chicago. 01:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give a speech titled "Monetary Policy's Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth" in Las Vegas, Nevada. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Thursday, August 10 08:30 AM PPI final demand, July (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); PPI ex-food and energy, July (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, July (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%): We estimate that headline PPI was flat in July, reflecting a modest rise in core producer prices offset by a decline in gasoline margins and energy prices. We estimate PPI ex-food, energy, and trade services rose by 0.2%. In the June report, PPI exceeded expectations as higher-than-expected food and core prices excluding trade services more than offset a retracement in the volatile trade services category. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 5 (GS 245k, consensus 240k, last 240k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 29 (consensus 1,960k, last 1,968k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 5k to 245k in the week ended August 5. Initial claims can be particularly volatile around this time of year due to annual auto plant shutdowns, and we expect a rebound in these factory closures to boost claims for this week. Additionally, we expect a rebound from depressed levels of jobless claims in California. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have trended up recently after falling sharply in the first four months of the year. 10:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give opening remarks at an “Economic Press Briefing on Wage Inequality in the Region” held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, July (consensus -$55.5bn, last -$90.2bn) Friday, August 11 08:30 AM CPI (mom), July (GS +0.20%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); Core CPI (mom), July (GS +0.21%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); CPI (yoy), July (GS +1.8%, consensus +1.8%, last +1.6%); Core CPI (yoy), July (GS +1.8%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): We expect a 0.21% increase in July core CPI (mom sa), which would be its fastest pace since January and would produce a one tenth increase in the year-over-year rate (to +1.8%). Our forecast reflects a boost from the second California tobacco tax increase of the year – a roughly US$2 per pack increase effective July 1 – as well as stabilization in used car prices, and mean reversion in airfares, apparel, and lodging following recent weakness. We also expect a reprieve from cell phone plan disinflation in the communication category, as a price hike for some T-Mobile plans is likely to offset new discounts offered by a few smaller pre-paid carriers. We also expect an above-trend increase in education prices, reflecting firming college tuition inflation indicated by press reports and university budget summaries. We estimate a 0.2% rise in headline CPI, reflecting rising food prices but a modest decline in energy prices. This would be consistent with the year-over-year rate rising two-tenths to 1.8%. 09:40 Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan will take part in a moderated Q&A session at the sixth annual CPE day hosted by the University of Texas at Arlington’s Accounting Department. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 11:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: inneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated audience Q&A session at the Independent Community Bankers of Minnesota’s annual convention in Bloomington, Minnesota. Source: BofA, DB, Goldman

09 февраля, 07:51

Нестабильная стабильность: экономические итоги Китая в 2016 году

Эта статья является завершающей в цикле обзоров развития экономики Китая в 2016 году. Предыдущие статьи: «Куда качнется маятник: об экономических итогах первого квартала в Китае», «Итоги развития Китая за первое полугодие 2016 года: между Сциллой реформы и Харибдой стабильного роста по траектории L», «В поиске точки опоры – китайская экономика в третьем квартале 2016 года». Завершившийся 2016 год вопреки громко звучавшим, многочисленным прогнозам разных экспертов и аналитиков не стал ни годом краха, ни годом «жесткой» посадки» китайской экономики, но он также не стал и годом коренного перелома в ее состоянии. Экономический рост есть, но его темпы продолжили снижаться, а его качество вызывает беспокойство. Многочисленные вызовы, риски и трудности по-прежнему сохранились. На смену одним проблемам пришли другие. Нынешнему переходному этапу экономического урегулирования пока не видно конца, и 2016 год явно не стал его последним годом. События на экономическом фронте приняли характер затяжной позиционной войны. Победа в ней будет решаться не в одном сражении, а определяться тем, хватит ли имеющихся ресурсов и запаса прочности, умения и политической воли грамотно ими распорядиться, чтобы лозунг о «новой норме» китайской экономики перестал бы быть просто лозунгом, а превратился в экономическую реальность. Пока же исход не очевиден, ситуация будет оставаться «шаткой» и неопределенной. Напомним, что в конце 2015 года ежегодное Центральное экономическое совещание назвало в качестве приоритетов экономической политики Китая на 2016 год решение пяти задач: преодоление избыточных мощностей, снижение товарных запасов, уменьшение долговой нагрузки, снижение себестоимости, укрепление «слабых звеньев» (проблемы экологии, узких мест социальной сферы и т. д.). Они подразумевали проведение структурных реформ в экономике страны, которые в обобщенном виде были названы Си Цзиньпином «реформой экономики предложения». Эти преобразования предполагалось осуществлять одновременно с установкой «продвигаться вперед в условиях стабильности», что в первую очередь предполагало стабилизацию экономического роста. Получилась двуединая задача: с одной стороны реформы, с другой – стабильный рост. Конкретный экономический курс балансировал между двумя этими полюсами, колеблясь то в ту, то в другую сторону. ВВП Формально количественные ориентиры, на 2016 год в основном были достигнуты. Правда, по сравнению с 2015 годом экономика замедлилась еще на 0,2 п. п., но замедление имело плавный характер, степень управляемости оставалась высокой. Темпы роста удалось удержать в «разумном диапазоне». Прирост ВВП по году составил 6,7%, то есть вписался в установленный интервал 6,5%-7%. В поквартальной разбивке в 1-3 кварталах он был на уровне 6,7%, в 4 квартале даже поднялся до 6,8%, оказавшись вровень с последним кварталом 2015 года. По секторам экономики приросты составили: в агропромышленной сфере - 3,3%, в промышленности и строительстве – 6,1%, сфере услуг – 7,8%. Тенденция к увеличению в структуре ВВП удельного веса отраслей услуг сохранилась, он увеличился на 1,4% до уровня 51,6%, доли промышленности и сельского хозяйства соответственно уменьшались. В качестве основных движущих сил роста в 2016 году выступали внутренние источники: инвестиции, рынок недвижимости и потребление. Инвестиции Общий объем инвестиции в основной капитал в 2016 году составил 59,65 трлн. юаней с приростом 8,1% по году (в 2015 году - +10,1%). Векторы инвестиционной активности в различных секторах были неодинаковыми и разнонаправленными. Темпы прироста инвестиций в объекты инфраструктуры поднялись по сравнению с 2015 годом на 0,2% и составили 17,4%. Их доля в суммарном объеме инвестиций возросла с 18,3% до 20%. Динамика частных инвестиций наоборот существенно снизилась, с 10,0% до 3,2%. Пик падения пришелся на середину года, когда месячные приросты уходили на отрицательную территорию. Предпринимавшиеся во второй половине года попытки выправить ситуацию, в том числе путем принятия новых постановлений о поддержке частного предпринимательства, принесли некоторый эффект, но полностью восстановить ситуацию не удалось. Удельный вес частных инвестиций в общем объеме инвестиций в основной капитал сократился с 64,2% в 2015 году до 62,2%. В секторе недвижимости инвестиционная активность восстанавливалась. Уже в начале года удалось прервать резкий спад темпов роста инвестиций в недвижимость, который наблюдался в 2015 году, когда этот показатель снизился с 10,5% до 1%. В апреле 2016 года показатели достигли годового максимума - 7,2%. После некоторого «проседания», начиная с сентября, они опять пошли вверх и в целом за год составили 6,9%. В стоимостном выражении инвестиции в недвижимость в 2016 году достигли 10,258 трлн. юаней, что составило 17,2% от общего объема инвестиций, и примерно соответствовало уровню 2015 года (17,4%). Фактически не изменилось также соотношение между вложениями в различные виды недвижимости. В 2016 году, как и в 2015 году, более 67% инвестиций направлялось в жилую недвижимость. Темпы промышленного роста Сохранение достаточно высокой степени инвестиционной подпитки способствовало стабилизации темпов промышленного роста. Показатель прироста добавленной стоимости в промышленности составил 6,0% (в 2015 году – 6,1%). Рост был достаточно ровным: в 1 квартале – 5,8%, в 2-4 кварталах – 6,1%. Возобновилось увеличение промышленного энергопотребления. За год оно возросло на 2,9% (в 2015 году наблюдалось сокращение на 1,4%). Некоторое усиление спроса привело к росту индекса отпускных цен производителей (PPI). Месячные значения PPI до августа были отрицательными (54 месяца подряд), но с сентября вышли на положительную территорию. Приросты значения PPI в октябре – декабре соответственно были на уровнях 1,2%, 3,3%, 5,8%. Однако отпускные цены производителей росли в основном благодаря подъему цен на сырьевые товары (уголь, нефть) и промышленную продукцию первичного передела (сталь, цветные металлы). В целом улучшилось финансовое состояние предприятий. Темп роста прибыли в промышленности по году составил 8,5% (в 2015 году прибыли в промышленности сократились на 2,3%). В отраслевом разрезе следует отметить сохранение тенденции к опережающему развитию высокотехнологичных производств (+10,8%). Производство электромобилей возросло на 58,5% (455 тыс. шт.), промышленных роботов – на 34,3% (72,42 тыс. шт.), смартфонов – на 12,1% (157,5 млн. шт.). Рынок недвижимости Существенное влияние на экономическую ситуацию оказывало оживление рынка недвижимости, после спада, который он переживал в 2014-начале 2015 годов. Притоку средств на него в значительной мере способствовало «схлопывание» пузыря на фондовом рынке, где объем сделок на Шанхайской и Шэньчжэньской фондовых биржах сократился более чем на 50%. В результате значительные объемы средств, в том числе с чисто спекулятивными целями, устремились на рынок недвижимости. Интересы спекулянтов в какой-то момент совпали с целями правительства, которое в 2015 году, пытаясь не допустить чрезмерного охлаждения рынка, отменило ранее введенные ограничения на нем. В результате получилась схема: один пузырь лопнул, другой начал надуваться. Наметившая еще во второй половине 2015 года тенденция к увеличению объема продаж, в 2016 году не только сохранилась, но еще более усилилась, охватив ряд крупных городов страны. Особенно быстрый восстановительный рост отмечался в январе- апреле 2016 года, когда объемы продаж, как по площади, так и в стоимостном выражении увеличились соответственно на 36,5% и 55,9%. В дальнейшем показатели начали плавно снижаться, но в целом продолжали оставаться на высоком уровне. По году объем сделок с коммерческой недвижимостью составил 11,7627 трлн. юаней (+34,8%), было реализовано в общей сложности 1,573 млрд. кв. м недвижимости (+22,5%). Вместе с тем подъем рынка носил неравномерный характер. Ажиотажный спрос на недвижимость наличествовал только в городах «первой и второй линий», тогда как в средних и малых городах он оставался слабым, излишки недвижимости не только не сокращались, но, наоборот увеличивались. В этих условиях власти были вынуждены проводить дифференцированную политику, охлаждая спрос в крупных городах и поддерживая его в малых. В начале октября в ряде крупных городов Китая были восстановлены отмененные ранее ограничения на приобретение второго и последующего жилья, ужесточены условия выдачи жилищных кредитов (в основном путем повышения размера первичного взноса). Хотя эти меры в последние месяцы года не успели оказать радикального влияния на состояние рынка, ожидается, что в течение 2017 года они постепенно приведут к его охлаждению и снизят как объемы продаж, так и темпы роста цен, что подтверждается первыми еще отрывочными данными по состоянию рынка в январе 2017 года. Потребление Важной движущей силой экономического развития в 2016 году продолжало оставаться потребление. Вклад расходов на конечное потребление в экономический рост по году составил 64,6% (в 2014-2015 годах эти показатели соответственно равнялись 47,8% и 59,7%). Вместе с тем темпы роста продаж на потребительском рынке, как и в предшествующие годы, продолжали сокращаться. В прошлом году по сравнению с 2015 годом они уменьшились на 0,3 п. п. до 10,4%. В поквартальной разбивке: 1 квартал – 10,3%, 2 квартал – 10,2%, 3 квартал – 10,5%, 4 квартал – 10,6%. Правительство стремилось поддержать рост потребления стимулирующими мерами. В частности, введенное им льготное налогообложение на продажу автомобилей с объемом двигателя до 1,6 л позволило увеличить объемы продаж автомобилей на 10,1% (в 2015 году – 5,3%). В количественном выражении рост составил 13,7% (28 млн. шт.). Особенно быстро росла реализация автомобилей с гибридными и электродвигателями, которых было реализовано 320 тыс. шт. (+84%), в том числе электромобилей – 240 тыс. шт. (+116%) Оживление на рынке недвижимости поддержало спрос на мебель (+12,7%), строительные и отделочные материалы (+14%). Как и во все последние годы продолжала сохраняться тенденция к опережающему росту интернет продаж товаров и услуг. В прошлом году их общий объем превысил 5,15 трлн. юаней (+26,2%), что составило 12,6% от товарооборота. По отдельным категориям товаров этот показатель был существенно выше, в том числе по продуктам питания – 28,5%, одежде – 18,1%, товарам повседневного спроса – 28,8%. Наблюдался взрывной рост интернет платежей, которые использовали 469 миллионов пользователей (+31,2%) как при совершении онлайн покупок, так и для оплаты товаров и услуг в обычных магазинах и других предприятиях сферы обслуживания. Внешняя торговля Относительная стабилизация секторов внутренней экономики контрастировала с ситуацией во внешней торговле, которая сокращалась второй год подряд, что явилось для Китая ситуацией беспрецедентной. В 4 квартале помесячная динамика была неровной: в октябре и декабре показатели товарооборота и экспорта сокращались, в ноябре впервые с марта был зафиксирован рост. В тоже время наметилась тенденция к увеличению стоимостных объемов импорта, которые росли два месяца подряд (ноябрь и декабрь) соответственно на 6,2% и 3,1%, что было обусловлено повышением цен на ряд сырьевых и промышленных товаров на международном рынке. В целом по году объем внешней торговли (в долларах США) уменьшился на 6,8% (3684,9 млрд. долл.), экспорта – на 7,7% (2097,4 млрд. долл.), импорта – на 5,5% (1587,5 млрд. долл.). Положительное сальдо составило 509,9 млрд. долл. и сократилось по сравнению с 2015 годом на 84 млрд. долл. Таким образом, начавшийся в 2015 году спад в экспорте (минус 2,9%) не только не был преодолен, но еще более углубился. Девальвация юаня помогла отчасти смягчить этот удар по экспортерам. В юанях экспорт сократился лишь на 2%, но в тоже время стоимостные объемы импорта, увеличились на 0,6%. Негативное влияние на экспорт оказывало возросшее число случаев применения за рубежом защитных мер в отношении китайских товаров. В 2016 году защитные меры использовались 119 раз в 27 странах (в 2015 году количество таких случаев составило 87). Наиболее часто объектами разбирательств была продукция черной металлургии (49 случаев в 21 стране), химические товары, а также изделия легкой промышленности. Объемы торговли с наиболее крупными торговыми партнерами сократились. В частности, товарооборот с ЕС уменьшился на 3,1%, с США – на 6,7%, АСЕАН - на 4,2%, Японией - на 1,3%, с Кореей - на 8,5%, Тайванем – на 4,2%, Австралией – на 5,3%. Перспективы на 2017 год выглядят весьма туманно и не очень обнадеживающе. На состоявшемся в конце декабря годовом совещании в Министерстве коммерции КНР сложившаяся обстановка характеризовалась как «сложная и тяжелая». Каких-либо индикативных ориентиров на 2017 год определено не было, единственной задачей остается добиться прекращения падения и стабилизации экспорта. На экспертном уровне почти в один голос говорят, что спад во внешней торговле в 2017 году продолжится. В частности, по мнению Прогнозного Центра Академии Наук КНР, объем внешней торговли может еще сократиться примерно на 5%, а экспорта – на 6%. Торговля между Россией и Китаем На фоне кризисных явлений во внешней торговле итоги торговли между Россией и Китаем, на первый взгляд, смотрятся отнюдь не плохо. В октябре-декабре помесячные показатели объемов оборота росли (соответственно 1,5%, 16,4%, 7,8%). Экспорт Китая увеличивался в ноябре и декабре на 26,1% и 9,4%. Российские поставки в Китай показывали положительную динамику в октябре-ноябре (6,8% и 6,4%), но в декабре все-таки ушли в минус, сократившись на 7,6%. В этих условиях говорить об окончательном преодолении фазы стагнации и полноценном начале периода восстановительного роста, пожалуй, все-таки еще рано. База для восстановления двусторонней торговли остается очень слабой. Это подтверждается разнонаправленностью годовых показателей: объем двустороннего оборота вырос на 2,2% (69,52 млрд. долл.), экспорт Китая в Россию увеличился на 7,3% (37,30 млрд. долл.), поставки из России в Китай, несмотря на рекордный объем нефтяного экспорта (52,48 млн. т) уменьшились на 3,1% (32,22 млрд. долл.). Тем не менее, можно предположить, что основным трендом 2017 года станет постепенное восстановление объемов двусторонней торговли, темпы которого, как представляется, не будут слишком высокими. Кредитно-денежная политика  Кредитно-денежная политика  в 2016 году оставалась по преимуществу умеренно-мягкой и преследовала цель поддержать стабилизацию роста. Сохранялся высокий уровень кредитной экспансии. Общий объем выданных в 2016 году кредитов в национальной валюте составил рекордную сумму 12,65 трлн. юаней, что на 925,7 трлн. юаней больше по сравнению с 2015 годом. Рост продаж недвижимости и по преимуществу слабая инвестиционная активность предприятий, привели к изменениям в структуре заемщиков. На кредиты домохозяйствам пришлось 50% от их общего объема (6,35 трлн. юаней), кредиты нефинансовым предприятиям 48,2% (6,1 трлн. юаней). В 2015 году это соотношение соответственно равнялось 33% и 63%, произошло также уменьшение кредитования предприятий в стоимостном выражении на 1,28 трлн. юаней. Денежное предложение по-прежнему было высоким. Показатель денежной массы М2 на конец 2016 года достиг 155,01 трлн. юаней (+11,3%) и более чем в два раза превосходил объемы ВВП (без изменений к 2015 году), что беспрецедентно для крупных экономик мира. Темп роста показателя М2 по сравнению с 2015 годом уменьшился на 2%. Показатель М1 в конце года составил 48,66 трлн. юаней (+21,4%) Темп роста по сравнению с 2015 годом увеличился на 6,2%. Высокие приросты показателя М1, которые в середине года достигали 24,6%, называют здесь «ловушкой ликвидности», свидетельствующей о сохраняющемся низким уровне инвестиционной уверенности предприятий и отражающей спекулятивную активность на части товарных рынков, а также рынке недвижимости. Политика валютного курса Политика валютного курса в конце года в целом соответствовала имевшимся прогнозам и ожиданиям. Развод с долларом продолжился. НБК в основном придерживался установленного им еще в первой половине года порядка определения валютного курса (средний курс юаня = курс вечерней биржевой сессии в предшествующий день с поправкой на колебания курсов корзины валют; при дневном интервале не более 2% в ту или иную сторону в ходе самих торгов). Сразу после окончания «золотой недели» в октябре на фоне роста валютного индекса доллара юань опять стал дешеветь к нему и этот процесс с короткими замедлениями продолжался до конца года. Курс юаня к доллару последовательно «пробил» отметки 6,7, 6,8, 6,9, 6,95 юаня за доллар и ближе к концу декабря начал вплотную приближаться к рубежу 7 юаней за доллар. Представители НБК, комментируя эту тенденцию, неоднократно заявляли о том, что «не юань обесценивается к доллару, а доллар растет в отношении юаня». Определенную логику в таких утверждениях, найти можно. За 4 квартал валютный индекс юаня (CFETS) не только не уменьшился, но даже несколько подрос. Если в конце сентября он составлял 94,07, то в конце декабря был на отметке 94,83, то есть поднялся на 0,8%. Это основной аргумент НБК в пользу тезиса о «базовой стабильности юаня», иными словами, как и все основные валюты, юань снижался к доллару, но это снижение было менее глубоким. При этом скромно замалчивалось, что более жесткой привязке к корзине валют НБК стал следовать только в последние месяцы года, тогда как до этого показатели CFETS по большей части снижались. В целом за год валютный индекс юаня снизился более чем на 6% с 100,94 на 31 декабря 2015 года до 94,83, то есть не намного меньше, чем курс юаня к доллару (6,8%), который в последний день года был на отметке 6,937 юаня, за доллар. Юань подешевел также к евро и японской иене соответственно на 3% и 10,6%. Итоги экспериментов в курсовой политике в 2015-2016 годах выглядят весьма неоднозначно. Девальвация, даже достаточно глубокая (с 11 августа 2015 года по конец 2016 года курс юаня к доллару снизился на 13,4%), панацеей для китайской экономики явно не стала. Она отчасти помогла экспортерам сократить в юаневые потери экспортной выручки, но не привела к кардинальному улучшению ситуации во внешней торговле. Процесс интернационализации юаня замедлился и даже в некоторой степени обратился вспять. Это отчетливо проявилось в сокращении расчетов в юанях по торговым операциям (товарная торговля и торговля услугами). Объемы таких операций неуклонно росли в последние годы, но в 2016 году они сократились на 27,7% с 7,23 трлн. юаней до 5,23 трлн. юаней. В отношении дальнейших перспектив курса юаня в целом есть понимание, что девальвационный тренд в 2017 году будет сохраняться. Большинство аналитиков склонно полагать, что к концу нынешнего года юань будет где-то на уровнях 7,2-7,3 юаня за доллар. В тоже время существует очень большое количество факторов неопределенности как внешнего, так и внутреннего плана, которые затрудняют долгосрочное прогнозирование валютного курса, превращая его в определенной степени в гадание на кофейной гуще. Анализируя ситуацию, все больше приходишь к выводу, что если поначалу девальвация имела «преднамеренный» характер, то теперь она преимущественно становится вынужденной. НБК, как видится, будет продолжать политику все большей ориентации на корзину валют и стремиться поддерживать базовую стабильность юаня по отношению к ней. В тоже время регулятор хотел бы сохранить себе свободу рук. Шагом в этом направлении стало изменение в конце декабря структуры корзины валют, на основе которой рассчитывается валютный индекс юаня (CFETS). В нее были включены дополнительно 11 валют, в том числе южноафриканский ранд, корейская вона, динар ОАЭ, саудовский реал, венгерский форинт, польский злотый, датская крона, шведская крона, норвежская крона, турецкая лира, мексиканский песо. Состав корзины валют увеличился с 13 до 24 валют. Одновременно доля доллара США в ней снизилась с 26% до 22%. На практике это может означать, во-первых, что при росте индекса доллара его влияние на соответствующий показатель CFETS уменьшится. Во-вторых, в условиях снижения курса юаня к доллару включение новых валют, некоторые из которых являются неустойчивыми, расширяет диапазон колебаний корзины, что облегчает поддержание относительной стабильности юаня к ней. В целом можно предположить, что сам механизм определения курса может еще изменяться, но общая направленность на постепенный развод с долларом вряд ли претерпит существенные изменения. Отток капитала Девальвация придала дополнительную остроту проблемам оттока капитала и сокращения валютных резервов. Сам отток капитала был порожден, конечно, более фундаментальными причинами, связанными с изменением мировых трендов перелива капитала, но дополнительным фактором, побуждающим инвесторов уходить из юаневых активов, девальвация, безусловно, стала. О масштабах оттока капитала дает представление размер отрицательного сальдо банковских операций с валютой. За год оно составило 337,7 млрд. долларов. В поквартальной разбивке оно формировалось следующим образом: в 1 квартале – 124,8 млрд. долларов, во 2 квартале – 49 млрд. долларов, в 3 квартале – 69,6 млрд. долларов, в 4 квартале – 94,3 млрд. долларов. Одновременно сокращение притока в страну иностранной валюты обусловило уменьшение расходов НБК на ее покупку. В 2016 году они снизились на 2,9 трлн. юаней, тогда как в 2015 году аналогичное снижение составляло 2,2 трлн. юаней. Крупные интервенции НБК на валютном рынке с целью придать снижению курса юаня по возможности плавный характер привели к ощутимому сокращению валютных резервов. В целом за год резервы снизились примерно на 320 млрд. долларов, в конце декабря они составили 3010,5 млрд. долларов. По кварталам снижение выглядело следующим образом: 1 квартал – 117,7 млрд. долларов; 2 квартал - 7,34 млрд. долларов; 3 квартал – 38,77 млрд. долларов; 4 квартал – 155,58 млрд. долларов. Хотя стратегическую отметку в 3 трлн. долларов в 2016 году удалось удержать, тем не менее, постоянное «таяние» валютной подушки безопасности вызывает здесь растущее беспокойство. В январе 2017 года валютные резервы Китая уменьшились еще на 12,3 млрд. долларов и опустились до 2998,2 млрд. долларов. Власти отреагировали на возникшую ситуацию. В ноябре Госсоветом было дано поручение, строже контролировать инвестиции китайских предприятий за рубеж, особенно при вложениях в непрофильные активы, а также в тех случаях, когда капитал дочерних зарубежных компаний значительно превышает капитал материнских. Параллельно НБК начал усиливать надзорные меры за движением средств по капитальным и текущим счетам. В СМИ оживленно обсуждался вопрос о возможности сокращения годовых квот покупки валюты гражданами (50 тысяч долларов). Однако пойти на этот шаг власти все-таки не решились, ограничившись усложнением формальностей, связанных с реализацией этого права. Административная кампания «закручивания гаек» приобрела такие масштабы, что стала вызывать озабоченность иностранных предприятий потерять свои права на перевод за рубеж прибылей. Представители НБК, Государственного управления валютного регулирования, Министерства коммерции были вынуждены выступать со специальными разъяснениями, чтобы успокоить иностранных инвесторов. В декабре удалось сбить волну китайских инвестиций за рубеж. Объемы зарубежного инвестирования по месяцу в годовом исчислении упали сразу на 39,4%. По-видимому, чрезвычайные меры в области валютного контроля будут продолжать действовать и в 2017 году. В январе Государственное управление валютного регулирования опубликовало специальное «Уведомление», которое содержит набор дальнейших мер по ужесточению валютного контроля. В частности, оно предписывает ограничить возможности предоставления и привлечения кредитов в иностранной валюте, требует от предприятий в месячный срок предоставить информацию об их находящихся за границей валютных средствах, полученных в результате ранее совершенных экспортных операций, а также репатриировать дивиденды от зарубежных прямых и портфельных инвестиций. Одновременно предполагается усилить контроль за «реальностью» импортных операций, более тщательно рассматривать заявки на осуществление инвестиций за рубежом. В целом в трудных условиях спада экспорта, значительного оттока капитала поддержание стабильного роста власти все-таки обеспечили, в том смысле, что, несмотря на значительные издержки, им удалось не допустить чрезмерного снижения темпов экономического развития и сохранить социально-экономическую стабильность. Однако этот успех относителен. Стабильный рост в решающей степени был обеспечен за счет активных стимулирующих мер государства, которые в определенном смысле искусственно восполняли «недостаток внутренних движущих сил экономики». Причем, масштабы этого восполнения были весьма и весьма немалыми. Экономика оказалась как бы подключенной к аппарату «искусственного дыхания». Естественно, что на этом фоне объективно возникало ощущение, что продвижение в области реформирования экономики выглядит весьма скромным, малым и слишком медленным. Избыточные мощности В части структурных реформ приоритетом 2016 года была объявлена борьба с избыточными мощностями, прежде всего в угольной и сталелитейной промышленности. В феврале 2016 года вышло постановление Госсовета, в котором была поставлена цель - в ближайшие 3-5 лет сократить мощности в угольной промышленности на 500 млн. тонн. Задача на 2016 год определялась в 250 млн. тонн. По заявлениям руководства Госкомитета по развитию и реформе данная цель была выполнена и даже перевыполнена. Объем сокращенных мощностей составил порядка 300 млн. т и затронул 620 тыс. рабочих мест. Вместе с тем здесь отмечают, что сокращение на первом этапе прошло относительно легко, так как выводимые мощности относились в основном к выработанным шахтам. Задание на 2017 год пока не определено, однако ожидается, что в количественном плане оно будет меньше. В то же время в отличие от 2016 года, в текущем году «придется резать по живому», то есть выводить работающие мощности. В сталелитейной промышленности сложилась примерно аналогичная ситуация. На 2016 год ставилась задача сократить мощности в пределах 45 млн. т низкосортной стали. Она также была выполнена. В рамках кампании была проведена реорганизация двух крупных металлургических компаний «Баоган» (Шанхай) и «Уган» (г. Ухань) в единую компанию, закрывались некоторые предприятия с устаревшим оборудованием. Вывод из эксплуатации даже небольшой части мощностей оказал неоднозначное влияние на соответствующие рынки, привел к резкому повышению цен на соответствующую продукцию. Сама борьба с избыточными мощностями велась почти исключительно административными методами и пока мало затронула ключевой вопрос закрытия и рыночной трансформации государственных «зомби» предприятий. В 2017 году предполагается расширить отраслевые рамки кампании по борьбе с избыточными мощностями, распространив ее на такие отрасли, как стекольная промышленность, производство цемента, отдельных видов цветных металлов, судостроение. Снижение уровня товарных запасов Основным направлением политики по снижение уровня товарных запасов были попытки не допустить дальнейшего увеличения объемов нереализованной недвижимости. Несмотря на высокие показатели объемов продаж недвижимости (было реализовано 1573,49 млн. кв. м), на данном направлении удалось достичь только некоторых тактических позитивных подвижек. По итогам года рост объемов нереализованной недвижимости приостановился, ее площадь сократилась на 3,2% (в 2015 году прирост – 15,6%) и составила 695,39 млн. кв. метров. Несколько лучше обстояло дело с жилой недвижимостью, нереализованные запасы которой уменьшились на 11% (в 2015 году рост на 11,2%). Объемы офисной и торговой недвижимости не только не сократились, но продолжали увеличиваться соответственно на 10,8% и 8%. В декабре сначала на заседании Политбюро ЦК КПК, а затем на Центральном экономическом совещании 2016 года была поставлена задача - подготовить проект «отвечающего условиям Китая и рыночным принципам долгосрочного механизма здорового развития сектора недвижимости». Однако к настоящему времени какой-либо информации об основном содержании такого механизма опубликовано не было. В отношении проблемы снижение долговой нагрузки в 2016 году велось в основном обсуждение возможных подходов к ее решению. В то же время даже отсутствуют официальные данные о ее размерах. По подсчетам китайских и иностранных экспертов в настоящее время размер долгов в нефинансовом секторе с учетом долгов «теневым банкам» находится на уровне 205 трлн. юаней, что составляет примерно 277% от ВВП. Правительственный долг оценивается в размере 66% от ВВП, долг домохозяйств – в 45%, корпоративный долг – в 164%. Существуют и другие оценки размера долга, но в целом во всех вариантах его структура приблизительно совпадает. Долг более чем на 90% является внутренним. Наиболее опасным его сегментом признается корпоративная задолженность. Не вызывает возражений то мнение, что в 2016 году общая долговая нагрузка продолжала увеличиваться в пределах 2-3%. Признавая остроту долговой проблемы, Госсовет КНР в октябре принял документ «О стабилизации и снижении долговой нагрузки на предприятия». В нем предусматривается ряд мер, включая передачу пакета акций в обмен на долги, реструктуризацию части предприятий, а также использование процедуры банкротства в отношении так называемых «зомби-предприятий». Передача пакетов акций будет осуществляться не напрямую между предприятиями- должниками и банками кредиторами, а через посредство специальных компаний по управлению активами, которые создаются и действуют при соответствующих банках. В документе особо оговаривается, что в отношении «зомби-предприятий», схемы передачи акций, а также реорганизации предприятий применяться не будут, а будет использоваться процедура банкротства. К настоящему времени реализация указанных мер находится на первичной стадии. К ней подключена «пятерка» крупнейших государственных банков, которыми были созданы соответствующие компании по управлению активами, проведены пилотные сделки по обмену долгов на акции. Однако судить о том, насколько широкое распространение получит данная практика, в какой степени она окажет влияние на решение проблемы задолженности, пока преждевременно. По другим направлениям структурного реформирования (снижение себестоимости, «укрепление слабых звеньев») существенных изменений в течение года не произошло. Таким образом, соотношение в экономической политике между взятыми преимущественно из арсенала прошлых лет мерами по поддержанию стабильного роста и структурным реформированием экономики, в общем, оказалось в пользу первых. Тем не менее, данная пропорция не была константной, на протяжении года она постепенно изменялась, причем темп этих изменений был предметом жарких споров между различными группами в руководстве. В статье «Итоги развития Китая за первое полугодие 2016 года: между Сциллой реформы и Харибдой стабильного роста по траектории L» довольно подробно описывались взгляды группы советников Си Цзиньпина на приоритеты структурных реформ, которые в концентрированной форме были изложены ими в статье «Интервью с авторитетным человеком» в газете «Жэньминь жибао» (9.05.2016). Хотя выводы, содержавшиеся в данной публикации, не повлекли за собой за собой немедленных радикальных изменений курса, ряд ее положений на протяжении второй половины 2016 года начали постепенно трансформироваться в установки экономической политики. Принцип сочетания «стабильного» роста и структурных реформ как основополагающий отброшен не был, но соотношение между двумя его составляющими стало чуть более сбалансированным. Перенастройка инструментов экономического регулирования в пользу структурных реформ начала ощущаться с октября, что отмечалось в статье «В поиске точки опоры – китайская экономика в третьем квартале 2016 года». Ее проявлениями можно считать заявление председателя НБК Чжоу Сяочуаня в Вашингтоне на заседании министров финансов и руководителей центральных банков G-20 о намерении НБК взять под контроль кредитную экспансию, уже упоминавшиеся выше меры по охлаждению рынка недвижимости, постановление Госсовета «О стабилизации и снижении долговой нагрузки на предприятия». В это же самое время появился доклад НБК «О денежной политике в третьем квартале 2016 года», в котором пусть даже в очень осторожной форме был поставлен вопрос о возможности изменения денежной политики в сторону ее ужесточения. Наконец, на заседании Политбюро ЦК КПК 28 октября, впервые, была особо акцентирована важность «подавления пузырей в активах, а также предотвращения экономических и финансовых рисков». Этот тренд был закреплен на декабрьском заседании Политбюро ЦК КПК и состоявшемся вслед за ним Центральном экономическом совещании 2016 года. На них была подтверждена актуальность поставленных еще на 2016 год пяти основных задач (преодоление избыточных мощностей, снижение товарных запасов, уменьшение долговой нагрузки, снижение себестоимости, укрепление «слабых звеньев»), которые остались приоритетами экономической политики на 2017 год. В то же время акценты были расставлены несколько по-иному. На первый план была вынесена проблема снижения долговой нагрузки. Решать ее предлагалось на путях «маркетизации предприятий», создания правовых механизмов конвертации долгов в акции. Ориентиром для развития рынка недвижимости был назван принцип «дома для того, чтобы в них жить, а не для спекуляций». Среди других задач экономической политики на 2017 год были обозначены «углубление реформы предложения в сельском хозяйстве», «оживление реального сектора экономики», «углубление реформы государственных предприятий», включая «прорыв» в развитии смешанных форм собственности в таких отраслях как электроэнергетика, нефтяная промышленность, газовая промышленность, железнодорожный транспорт, авиационный транспорт, связь. Вместе с тем преувеличивать этот реформаторский настрой, пожалуй, особо не стоит. Не надо забывать, что в 2017 году должен состояться 19 съезд КПК и, кроме того, нынешний год фактически является последним годом полномочий нынешнего состава правительства. Нетрудно догадаться, что в этих условиях руководство ни на минуту не будет забывать о стабильности. С этой точки зрения выглядит закономерным, что установка «продвигаться вперед в условиях стабильности» вновь была призвана задавать тон всей политике в нынешнем году. Более того, акцент на нее еще более усилился. Если раньше о стабильности говорилось преимущественно применительно к экономической сфере, то на этот раз было особо подчеркнуто, что она является «важным принципом в управлении государством», которым надлежит руководствоваться во всех сферах деятельности. В целом, как представляется, общие контуры экономической политики Китая в 2017 году вряд ли кардинально изменятся. Некоторая смена акцентов возможна, но, в общем, как мы это не раз отмечали, по большому счету Китай продолжит балансировать между реформой и стабильным ростом, то есть будет и дальше двигаться по так называемой «траектории L». Если же говорить о количественных показателях экономики, то снижение темпов роста продолжится по нескольким причинам. Во-первых, из-за неудовлетворительного состояния экспорта, которое может еще больше осложниться, в том случае если произойдет резкое обострение торгово-экономических противоречий с США. Во-вторых, из-за ограниченности возможностей продолжать бесконечно наращивать масштабы стимулирующих мер, как в части инвестиций в инфраструктуру, так и в части потребления. Естественными ограничителями здесь являются снижение темпов прироста доходов бюджета, рост бюджетного дефицита, а также наметившаяся тенденция к уменьшению темпов роста доходов населения, которые в 2016 году уже были ниже, чем темпы прироста ВВП. В-третьих, резервы для дальнейшего смягчения денежно-кредитной политики полностью исчерпаны. НБК уже в начале 2017 года стал подавать очень осторожные, но однозначные сигналы о повороте в сторону ее ужесточения, пойдя на увеличения процента по ряду операций на открытом рынке. Это, конечно, еще нельзя назвать поворотом, скорее, регулятор только еще «нащупывает камни», но ветер явно начинает дуть в эту сторону. И он может усилиться, особенно, если возникнет угроза «стагфляции с китайской спецификой», то есть роста инфляции при снижающихся темпах роста. Такая угроза потенциально имеется, если принять во внимание быстрый рост отпускных цен производителей в последние месяцы, который через какое-то время может переброситься на потребительский рынок. С учетом всех этих обстоятельств подавляющее большинство китайских и иностранных экспертов полагают, что достижимым для Китая показателем на 2017 год может быть экономический рост в 6,5%. Правда, раздаются отдельные голоса о том, руководству следовало бы принять более низкие индикативные показатели, сосредоточив все силы на осуществлении реформ. Однако учитывая политический фактор съезда КПК, выбор руководством такого сценария видится маловероятным. Индикативные наметки на 2017 год будут объявлены на начинающейся 5 марта сессии ВСНП. Однако вне зависимости от того, какими они будут, для китайской экономики начавшийся год будет сложным и болезненным. Сергей Цыплаков –представитель Сбербанка России в Китае (2014) Родился 11 февраля 1958 г.; окончил Институт стран Азии и Африки при МГУ, кандидат экономических наук; работал в Институте экономики мировой социалистической системы АН СССР, в Комитете Верховного Совета РСФСР по международным делам и внешнеэкономическим связям, был первым секретарем посольства РФ в США, начальником отдела внешнеэкономических связей Аппарата Правительства РФ; 1993—1995 и 1999—2001 — начальник Департамента международного сотрудничества Аппарата Правительства РФ; женат, имеет сына; увлекается рыбалкой, литературой. 2001 – 2013 - Торговый представитель РФ в Китайской Народной Республике 2014  – представитель Сбербанка России в Китае Язык Русский

23 июля 2016, 19:21

Про глобальный госдолг и конец истории

Общий объем госдолга всех стран в мире составляет 60 трлн. доларов. Общий объем госдолга 20 крупнейших развитых стран составляет 44 трлн долларов. С середины 2014 года мы видим тренд, когда все большая часть госдолга уходит в отрицательную доходность (см. диаграмму).                    На прошлой неделе совокупный размер госдолга с отрицательной доходностью превысил 13 трлн. долларов. Это где-то треть от всего госдолга.          Анекдот состоит в том, что в середине 2014 года госдолга с отрицательной доходностью не было вовсе. В феврале 2015 года размер госдолга с отриц. доходностью составил 3,6 трлн. долларов, в феврале 2016 - 7 трлн. долларов, спустя 5 месяцев - 13 трлн. долларов. За последние 2 недели 1,3 трлн. долларов гос. долга ушли в отрицательную доходность. Это free fall.          Долги каких стран уходят в отриц доходность? Европейских и Японии (см. диаграмму).                    На диаграмме показаны облигации с разными сроками погашения. Первая колонка это однолетние облигации, вторая - двухлетние и т.д. Красные сегменты это облигации с отриц. доходностью. Как правило, более длинные облигации имеют большую доходность, потому что предполагается что инфляция сейчас на минимальных значениях и в перспективе она будет расти.          Больше всего облигаций с отриц доходностью у Швейцарии, Германии и Японии, потому что там самая низкая инфляция. У США и Великобритании такие тоже есть, но с короткими сроками погашения - 1-3 месяца.          Почему это происходит? Центробанки наращивают денежную массу, денег все больше, их нужно во что-то вкладывать. Люди готовы вкладывать деньги в активы с отрицательной доходностью, но с гарантией того что их деньги не пропадут. Госдолг это наиболее надежный (наименее рисковый) актив, соответственно, он в первую очередь уходит в отриц. доходность.          Зачем центробанки наращивают денежную массу? Ну они таким образом пытаются разогнать инфляцию. Даже не разогнать, а всего лишь не дать ей упасть ниже нуля.                    Как видите, в Японии, Италии, Швейцарии инфляция ниже нуля, в остальных странах около нуля. Считается, что при отрицательной инфляции наступает Армагеддон, потому что люди перестают покупать товары, ждут снижения цен и, соответственно, наступает депрессия.          Почему падает инфляция? Потому что Китай девальвирует юань. Он это делает с начала 2014 года (см. диаграмму).                    Китай девальвирует юань не потому что он плохо относится к США, ЕС и Японии, а потому что он решает свои собственные проблемы. Ему нужно кровь из носу иметь 7% роста ВВП. ЕС, США, Япония не могут в ответ девальвировать свои валюты, потому что у них такие большие фин рынки, что эффективно влиять на них ЦБ не могут. Китай легко манипулирует курсом, а ЕС, Япония, США не могут манипулировать курсом.          Чем это закончится? Вообще-то никто не знает чем это закончится. Все последствия сложно предсказать. Но одно последствие можно предсказать однозначно. Закончится это банкротством пенсионных систем Европы, США и Японии. Дело в том что пенсионным фондам чтобы выполнить обязательства перед своими клиентами нужно иметь доходность на свои активы - 8% годовых. Причём это должна быть безрисковая доходность. 25 лет назад доходность гос долговых бумаг развитых стран составляла как раз 8%. и всё было нормально. Сейчас пенсионным фондам не во что вкладывать деньги. В результате у них возникла дырка между обязательствами и стоимостью их активов. Эта дырка составляет 78 трлн. долларов у 20 наиболее развитых стран (источник). Выхода 2:          - повысить пенсионный возраст и резко понизить пенсионные выплаты;          - закрыть дефицит за счет прямой эмиссии.          Проблема в том что напечатать 78 трлн. долларов без последствий уже не получится. Напомню, что 3 этапа количественного смягчения привели к росту ден массы доллара всего на 5 трлн долларов.          Если начать закрывать дефицит пенсионной системы за счет прямой эмиссии это в конечном  итоге приведет к гиперинфляции.               Если резко поднять ставки, то лучше тоже не станет. Некоторые думают, что если нормализовать ставки то случится короткий обвал, экономика сократится процентов на 10, но зато потом быстро поскачет вперед. Это не правда. Никуда она уже не поскачет. Чтобы рецессия закончилась взрывным ростом нужно иметь молодое, здоровое и талантливое население, готовое вкалывать, созидать, создавать новые бизнесы, изобретать, добиваться. А от населения США, Европы, Японии сегодня можно ожидать чего угодно только не желания вкалывать. В 20-30-х годах - да, можно было обвалить экономику, очистить ее от неэффективных отраслей и получить в результате двузначные темпы роста. Сейчас этот фокус не выйдет. Обвалить можно, только на месте обвала ничего нового не вырастет. К тому же можно только догадываться как 46 млн. люмпенов в США отнесутся к резкому сокращению уровня доходов. Думаю, они разнесут США вдребезги-пополам, как говорил Жванецкий.        Проблемы США, Европы лежат вообще не в плоскости экономики. Их проблема в том, что всё однажды заканчивается. Запад рулил миром 700 лет, потому что европейская цивилизация 700 лет рождала огромное количество талантливых, энергичных и умных людей. А теперь население США и Европы постарело и обрюзгло и уже не может менять мир. Это обычная старость. Поэтому, кстати, элита США и завозит миллионы иммигрантов из Мексики, Кубы, Доминиканы, Филиппин. Они необразованы и неталантливы, зато готовы вкалывать.       Такие дела.

06 июля 2016, 05:56

Биржевое цунами пронеслось по мировым рынкам

Синдром Brexitа: на финансовых рынках, похоже, начинается паника. Инвесторы бегут из рисковых активов, скупая для сохранения своих денег наиболее надежные инструменты.

11 июня 2016, 21:47

Продажа «Роснефти» и начало эпохи нефтяного юаня

США, впервые с 2012 года, вывели в море шесть из десяти своих авианосцев, пять из которых двигаются в направлении Китая или находятся в Южно-Китайском море. Причиной таких действий мог стать возможный поворот Китая к политике создания независимой от доллара торговой зоны юаня, о которой «Южный Китай» писал в апреле этого года.   Одним из шагов к воплощению этой стратегии может стать покупка доли и контроль над «Роснефтью», а также появление России на Шанхайской энергетической бирже. Несмотря на очевидно выгодную сделку по приобретению главного актива современной России, в самом Китае, однако, существует мощное противодействие этому курсу - ставку на внутреннюю нефтяную и политическую «оппозицию» делают американские нефтяники, чей мировой экспорт только за последние три месяца вырос почти в восемь раз.  Американское нефтяное цунами 2016 год стал годом больших перемен на мировом нефтяном рынке. Экспорт американской нефти WTI, запрет на который был снят 18 декабря 2015 года, лишь за первые три месяца 2016 года вырос в семь раз. В январе США экспортировали 1,2 млн барреля нефти, в феврале экспорт удвоился, достигнув 2,9 млн баррелей, а в марте он уже превосходил январский показатель почти в восемь раз, достигнув 8 млн баррелей. Основная часть американской нефти была направлена в Италию и Японию.  Американские эксперты, пытаются сдержать панические настроения среди конкурентов, и отмечают, что на экспорт WTI сильно влияет стоимость перевозки. Тем не менее, не трудно рассчитать к каким показателям придет уже к концу 2016 года американский экспорт, если динамика его роста останется неизменной. Только по состоянию на апрель экспорт нефти из США достиг 100-летнего максимума.  Применение революционных технологий фрэкинга привело к удвоению американского производства нефти с 2011 по 2015 год, а также вывело США в тройку крупнейших производителей черного золота. Саудовская Аравия и Россия, которые находятся на первом и втором месте не без оснований обеспокоены возможным появлением нового и сильного конкурента на традиционных рынках сбыта.  В апреле американская нефть появилась и в Китае - это была лишь капля в море, 16 700 баррелей. В мае на НПЗ компании Sinopec в городе Маомин (Гуандун), которым когда-то руководил член Политбюро Чжан Гаоли, пришла первая партия американской нефти WTI объемом в 43 000 тонн. 20 июня, прямо перед визитом Владимира Путина в Пекин и обсуждения сделки по продаже доли «Роснефти», в Маомин прибудет вторая партия американской нефти - в три раза больше, чем предыдущая - 130 000 тонн - свыше 1 млн баррелей. Только, учитывая эти данные, рост американского экспорта с марта по июнь вырастет в более чем 50 раз.   Нефтяной юань против нефтедоллара  Появление нового игрока на рынке предложения нефти происходит на фоне репетиции углеводородного апокалипсиса, когда в феврале 2016 года цена на нефть упала до 26 долларов за баррель, что стало серьезной угрозой социальной стабильности и даже существованию политических режимов большинства нефтеэкспортеров мира. В условиях, когда рынок самих США и Евросоюза находится под куполом военно-политического влияния Вашингтона, рынок Китая, потеснившего США с позиции самого большого потребителя нефти, становится по сути единственной альтернативой для большинства нефтеэкспортеров Азии. В 2015 году импорт нефти в Китай достиг 332,63 млн тонн, составив 62,2% от всего объема потребляемой страной нефти. За последние 10 лет Китай увеличил импорт нефти в два раза. В апреле 2016 года Китай ежедневно импортировал 7,96 млн баррелей в день, что на 7,6% больше, чем в прошлом году, и 3,5% больше, чем в марте. Рекорда импорт нефти в Китай достиг в феврале 2016 года, составив 8,04 млн баррелей в день. Однако Китай не только покупает нефть, но и является самым большим экспортером товаров для большинства стран Азии, за исключением Индии. Это в полной мере относится к двум Кореям, странам Юго-Восточной Азии, Ближнего Востока, Центральной Азии и России. Такая взаимодополняемость стран региона на фоне растущего желания США не только заполнить ниши на рынке нефти, но и внеэкономическими методами ликвидировать конкуренцию, создает выгодную для экономики Китая ситуацию перехода во взаиморасчетах между странами на юани. Разрастающиеся противоречия между США и Саудовской Аравией, а также между США и Россией, волатильность на рынке нефти, торгующейся за доллары - толкают последних к более тесному сотрудничеству с китайскими властями.  Шанхайская нефтяная биржа Китайская экономика и юань далеко не идеальны с точки зрения замещения доллара. Нестабильность фондового рынка, замедление темпов роста китайской экономики - все это вселяет сомнения в азиатские страны в возможность использования юаня. С другой стороны для таких стран как Россия и Саудовская Аравия при обострении отношений с США и вероятностью роста американского давления альтернативой китайской волатильности может стать куда более серьезные социально-политические последствия. Вторым важным обстоятельством, которое делает возможным появление «нефтяного юаня» и ведения полноценной торговли в юанях является позиции Китая как крупнейшего импортера других товаров - железной руды, меди, золота и целого ряда важнейших позиций в сельском хозяйстве, а также потенциально огромный рынок торговли экологическими квотами. Последнее обстоятельство делает возможным появление в Азии полноценного аналога западного биржевого альянса ICE, значительно консолидировавшегося в начале 2013 года. Вершиной такого китайского биржевого конгломерата, который может стать инструментом поглощения юанем значительной части мировой торговли, должна стать Шанхайская нефтяная биржа (Шанхайская энергетическая биржа INE), создание которой однако откладывается уже в течение нескольких лет, но ожидается, согласно заявлениям китайских властей во-втором квартале 2016 года. После открытия биржи на ней ожидается появление целого роя игроков: торговля на INE может вестись контрактами от 100 баррелей, тогда как контракты на Brent и WTI торгуются от 1000 баррелей. Однако на торговлю будут введены лимиты, которые не позволят цене колебаться больше или меньше, чем на 4% в день. Биржа переведет мир нефти на пекинское время и будет работать с 9.00 до 11-30 и с 13-30 до 15.00, закрываясь в то время, когда московские офисные менеджеры еще не успеют выпить первую кружку кофе.  Согласно официальным заявлениям, постоянно откладывающиеся решение о начале функционирования биржи и торгов нефтяными фьючерсами за юани связано с рядом нерешенных вопросов технического характера. Тем не менее, открытие INE прежде всего находится во власти Китайской комиссии по регулированию ценными бумагами, и связано с политическими вопросами выработки курса экономики страны. Обсуждение нефтяного юаня началось в прессе КНР внезапно, до июньских публикаций такая стратегия не обсуждалась вообще, хотя очевидно, что идея витала в воздухе. Перспективы начала функционирования INE и торговли фьючерсами на нефть за юани скептически оцениваются китайскими респондентами ряда изданий, которые отмечают, что INE потребуется 10-30 лет, чтобы догнать конкурентов. Однако вряд ли можно сказать, что это INE недооценивается американскими СМИ. Сколько энергии и ресурсов потребуется китайскому руководству для реализации финансового доминирования в Евразии сказать сложно, хотя очевидно, что реализации такой задачи может стать мотивирующей для всей современной элиты КНР и группы Си Цзиньпина в частности - как минимум на краткосрочный период стагнации экономики - и позволит сплотиться вокруг "коренного лидера".  Вытеснение американского доллара из стран Ближнего Востока, Юго-Восточной Азии и России - фактически означает объявление войны США. Существует большая вероятность, что пять авианосцев США, выведенные в море и движущиеся или находящиеся в регионе Восточной Азии, связаны с последними изменениями в нефтяной стратегии Китая, предстоящими переговорами по приватизации «Роснефти» и арабского нефтяного гиганта «Arаmco».  «Банда нефтяников» и «комсомольцы»  По вопросам «нефтяного юаня» в самом руководстве Китая существует определенная борьба мнений между лояльными американским корпорациям руководителям «комсомольской» группы, группы внутренних производителей «нефтяников», а также близкой к ним «шанхайской» политической группы, отстаивающий интернациональное видение будущего превращения юаня в мировую валюту через вхождение юаня в корзину валют МВФ на основании взаимного согласия с мировыми финансовыми элитами. Для всех указанных групп появление «нефтяного юаня» и замены внутреннего производства арабским и российским импортом - не принесет пользы или приведет к очевидному вреду и потере влияния. Очевидно, что конфликт в нефтяной отрасли и стратегические вопросы ее развития, которые имеют непосредственное отношение к вопросам государственной безопасности, не будут выноситься на публичное обсуждение. Однако косвенным признаком такой борьбы стала частая смена руководителей Госуправления по делам энергетики (国家能源局), вырабатывающего решения в том числе и нефтяном секторе.   В 2013 году был арестован его руководитель Лю Тенань, назначенный при бывшем генсеке Ху Цзиньато, который также занимал позицию замглавы Комитета по развитию и реформам КНР, китайским аналогом «госплана». Сегодня управление возглавляет уйгур по национальности Нур Бекри, бывший мэр столицы Синьцзяна Урумчи и глава правительства Синьцзян-Уйгурского автономного района. Энергетическое управление до Нур Бекри занимали уроженцы «шанхайского» региона У Синьсюн и Чжан Гобао. Правление нового лидера страны, выстраивающего Шелковый (а может быть «нефтяной») путь от Синьцзяна и Пакистана до Египта и Саудовской Аравии, началось с разгрома «Банды нефтяников» (石油帮) крупнейшего предприятия нефтяной отрасли Китая - Китайской нефтегазовой корпорации CNPC (中石油). Кроме генерального директора Цзян Цземиня (蒋洁敏,не путать с Цзян Цзэминем) и еще 11 топ-менеджеров корпорации, управляющих крупнейшими Дацинским (大庆石油田) и Таримским месторождениями (塔里木油田), пожизненное заключение получил и бывший член Политбюро, нефтянник по образованию, а также руководитель CNPC Чжоу Юнкан, занимавший пост в том числе и первого секретаря обкома провинции Сычуань - места сосредоточения крупнейших запасов сланцевого газа и нефти в Китае и мире. В июле 2015 года в госпрессе КНР появились прямые намеки на связь «банды нефтяников  с правой рукой "шанхайского" генсека Цзян Цзэминя и зампредседателя КНР (2003-2008) при генсеке Ху Цзиньтао - Цзэн Цинхуне. Обновленное руководство CNPC сегодня - основной партнер «Роснефти» на китайском направлении. Приход к власти Си Цзиньпина сопровождался борьбой с нефтяными кланами, внутренними производителями в стране. Наступление новой нефтяной эпохи низких цен на нефть привело к резкому сокращению стоимости нефтяных активов и острой борьбой за сохранение позиций собственной нефтяной промышленности в Китае. Себестоимость добычи нефти в КНР по технологическим и другим причинам составляет от 45 до 53 долл, что предполагает быструю деградацию отрасли в стране при низких мировых ценах на нефть. Добыча Sinopec (中石化) сократилась в 2015 году на 5%, CNPC (中石油) - на 1,5%. Даже добыча на шельфе у корпорации CNOOC (中海油) сократилась на 5%, по причине истощения большинства месторождений, открытых еще в 80-х годах.  В этих условиях для нефтяной отрасли Китая существует три возможных варианта развития ситуации: дотирование нефтяной отрасли со стороны государства с целью обеспечения энергетической безопасности страны, что однако стало бы неподъемной задачей в условиях аналогичного дотирования угольной и сталелитейной отраслей, переход на массовое потребление сначала зарубежной, а при определенных политических условиях американской нефти, а по сути дотирование американской промышленности, либо расширение сотрудничества с российскими и арабскими нефтяными компаниями и параллельное активное освоение шельфа Южно-Китайского моря, вопреки риску обострения международной ситуации. В ходе активного противостояния в китайском руководстве победили сторонники последнего варианта.  Это привело к появлению внутренней нефтяной оппозиции, которая сегодня в самом упрощенном виде сводится к руководителям Таримского и Дацинского нефтяных месторождений. Первое находится в Синьцзян-Уйгурском автономном районе, одна из партийных газет которого в марте опубликовала письмо с требованием отставки Си Цзиньпина, а второе в приграничной с Россией Хэйлунцзяне, который возглавляет бывший первый секретарь лояльно относящейся к американским корпорациям комсомольской организации Лу Хао. Известно, что планируемое расширение нефтепровода Сковородино-Мохэ было сорвано китайской стороной - прежде всего руководителями, находящегося в Хэйлунцзяне месторождения Дацин. Если Хэйлунцзян зависит от производства нефти частично, то Синьцзян полностью сидит на таримской нефтяной игле и дальнейшее сокращение цен и сворачивание производства нефти грозит потерей ее руководству утратой былого политического влияния в том числе и в рамках всего Китая. Относительно сложная обстановка сохраняется и вокруг Шанхайской нефтяной биржи - начало ее функционирования полностью находится в руках недавно назначенного регулятора фондового рынка Лю Шиюй - человека одинаково близкого как к «шанхайской» так и к «комсомольской» группе в Компартии Китая. Лю Юйши занял свой пост после отстранения Сяо Гана - «шанхайского» руководителя ведомства. Очевидно, что фигура Лю Шиюй играет блокирующую функцию для реализации плана «нефтяного юаня».  Приватизация «Роснефть» и «Aramco»  Для функционирования биржи нужны зарубежные игроки. Однако пул игроков вряд ли спешит пополниться иностранными участниками - начало торговли фьючерсами за юани чревато любыми, самыми негативными обстоятельствами для игроков - за примерами далеко ходить не надо. «Нефтяное лобби» США физически уничтожило за последние 15 лет режимы Ливии и Ирака, не говоря об активном участии в «арабской весне» на территории ряда государств Ближнего Востока. Первый шаг для такой торговли может и хочет сделать Россия, однако руководство страны хочет сохранить поле дня маневра, тогда как китайские инвесторы стремятся максимально тесно связать «Роснефть» узами вечной дружбы с Поднебесной. Обстоятельства участия «Роснефти» и торговли нефтью марки ESPO на INE неизвестны, что оставляет широкое поле для спекуляций.  Тем не менее, из сообщений участников сделки по приобретению CNPC известно, что руководство китайской нефтяной компании хотело бы получить больше прав на осуществление управления главной российской корпорацией. Сегодня CNPC владеет 0,62% акций «Роснефти», тогда как после приобретения 19,5% ее акций доля CNPC превысит 20%-порог и превысит долю британской компании, которая также владеет 19,75% акций российской корпорации. В совете директоров нефтяного гиганта девять человек, двое из которых британцы. Если исходить из логики китайского заявления, Китай претендует на большее число мест в совете директоров или на три позиции, что вместе с британцами образует большинство в составе директоров корпорации. О том, что такое сближение возможно, говорит тесное взаимодействие между BP и CNPC. Однако для выдвижения требований о праве на управление компанией со стороны CNPC иметь 20,12% акций не достаточно, тем не менее у CNPC имеются сильные аргументы. C самого начала существования «Роснефти» в реализации ее политики по консолидации российских нефтяных активов CNPC неизменно выступала доступным кредитором, помогая созданной на основе активов российского «Юкоса» компании скупать российские нефтяные компании, получая при этом выгодные для себя условия, а иной раз и в одностороннем порядке требуя дополнительных скидок. Сотрудничество между двумя корпорациями увенчалось историческим контрактом (2013) на поставку «Роснефтью» 375 млн тонн нефти в КНР в ближайшие 25 лет. По мнению аналитиков «Сбербанка CIB» на начало 2016 года, однако, корпорация, которая испытывает сильное давление от кредитного бремени, могла полностью получить предоплату от китайской стороны, однако не до конца выполнить условия поставок в Китай на 2016 год. Последний, выступая как дружественный кредитор, ожидает от руководства «Роснефти» серьезных уступок в том числе, и играя на противоречиях с Саудовской Аравией.  В начале 2016 года Китай допустил ситуацию, когда импорт сырой нефти из России впервые превысил импорт из Саудовской Аравии. Реверанс в сторону России трудно объясним, если не учитывать готовящуюся сделку по приватизации крупнейшего нефтяного производителя в мире Arаmco. Китай, который является ожидаемым покупателем как доли в «Роснефти» так и в «Aramco», разыгрывает между продающими сторонами соревнование за лучшие условия будущей сделки, подогревая саудитов конкуренцией со стороны России, а Россию через сокращение доли использования нефти ESPO в шаньдунских нефтеперерабатывающих заводах, основном центре китайской нефтепереработке Циндао, заменяя ее на нефть из Африки и Латинской Америки за период февраль-апрель 2016 года. В преддверии сделки неприятные комментарии, которые могут повлиять на ее исход, появились и в российской печати: например, в дочернем издании Правительства РФ «Российской газеты» Russia Beyond The Headlines была опубликована статья, в которой «Роснефти» предрекали судьбу «ЮКОСа», ликвидированного за попытку «торговать суверенитетом» или продать контрольный пакет акций американскому «Шеврону» и «Эксону». Кроме того, в публикации приводилось заявление министра экономического развития Улюкаева, который по совместительству входит в состав руководства китайского госбанка АИИБ, что сделка по «Роснефти» должна быть в любом случае завершена, так как на деньги от ее продажи рассчитывают в правительстве. Такое заявление лишает компанию маневра в переговорах и возможность напугать китайскую сторону их потенциальным срывом. Сделка с Aramco может стать, наравне с приобретением «Роснефти» сделкой года и даже десятилетия для китайской нефтяной промышленности. Ситуация с Саудовской Аравией, рассорившейся с США, настолько важна для Китая, что в стране заменен старый посол, возглавлявший представительство Пекина в стране с 2007 года. Новый посол Ли Синьхуа - уроженец столицы провинции Гуандун - Гуанчжоу, древнего центра китайско-арабской торговли, который судя по всему, наиболее заинтересован в приобретении арабских нефтяных активов.  Ожидаемый размер IPO Arаmco - 125 млрд долларов, что в пять раз больше рекордного IPO китайской корпорации «Алибаба». Вся стоимость компании оценивается в 2,5 трлн долл. Сможет ли Sinopec одержать победу в исторической сделке - покажет время, однако до сих пор компания  смогла получить доступ лишь к покупке канадских нефтяных активов, которые характеризуется одной из самой высокой себестоимостью добычи в мире. Несмотря на очевидную второстепенность сделки по «Роснефти» перед перспективой приобретения доли Aramco - это единственные надежно защищенные поставки нефти в Китай. В случае обострения китайско-американских отношений и разрастания конфликта в Южно-Китайском море, а также роста напряженности в Индийском океане, поставки арабской и иранской нефти, а также добыча в Южно-Китайском море будут поставлены под угрозу, тогда как поставки по ВСТО будут гарантированно произведены. Сделка по "Роснефти" также, очевидно, гарантирована для Китая и не грозит непредвиденными эксцессами в отношениях с США, а срыв сделки по "Роснефти" вряд ли прибавит Китаю шансов в арабском IPО. Виктор Николаев Язык Русский

28 января 2016, 08:57

Ротшильды ищут компромисс с Китаем

Что стоит за атаками миллиардера Сороса на юань?

19 января 2016, 16:53

Три побочных эффекта девальвации юаня

Экономисты зачитывают до дыр опубликованные данные по экономике Китая. Статистике уделяется колоссальное внимание, и объяснить это очень просто: только две страны способны сегодня ввергнуть мировую экономику в рецессию. Эти две страны - США и КНР.

07 января 2016, 16:54

Валютные резервы Китая тают рекордными темпами

Объем валютных резервов Китая в декабре сократился рекордными темпами: на $107,9 млрд до $3,33 трлн, свидетельствуют официальные данные Народного банка Китая.

01 декабря 2015, 13:29

Каков будет вес юаня в корзине SDR?

Свершилось то, чего ждали все: юань включен в корзину резервных валют МВФ. Остается главный вопрос: какой вес получит китайская валюта.

13 октября 2015, 08:53

Китайский импорт рухнул почти на 18%

Китай опубликовал данные внешней торговли. Импорт, номинированный в юанях, рухнул сразу на 17,7%, а экспорт сократился на 1,1%. Профицит торгового баланса составил 376,2 млрд юаней.

26 августа 2015, 23:52

Андрей Островский: Китай просто захотел увеличить экспорт

Девальвация юаня: что происходит с экономикой Китая? И к чему готовиться остальному миру? Об этом Елена Щедрунова поговорила с заместителем директора Института Дальнего Востока РАН, руководителем Центра экономических и социальных исследований Китая, доктором экономических наук, профессором Андреем Островским и управляющим активами Международного фонда частных инвестиций Александром Душкиным.

19 августа 2015, 20:14

МВФ еще год не пустит юань в "высшую лигу" валют

Международный валютный фонд принял решение, согласно которому национальная валюта Китая еще год будет вне списка резервных валют.

13 августа 2015, 01:36

Ход юанем

С интересом наблюдаю рыночную истерику на тему «мощной девальвации» юаня Народным банком Китая аж на 3.5% :). Складывается впечатление, что никто не слышал заявлений НБК о том, что они к концу этого года рассчитывают перейти к более рыночному режиму курсообразования. Мало того, судя по заголовкам «Банк Китая девальвировал юань второй раз за два дня», многие не читали и разъяснения НБК… которые четко указывают, что теперь официальный курс определяется по итогам торгов на межбанке в предыдущий день. НБК не девальвирует юань, а отпускает (конечно на поводке) в свободное плавание. Почему курс упал – он и должен падать, когда НБК и ФРС проводят разнонаправленную монетарную политику, а Китай становится экспортером капитала и уже несколько кварталов здесь присутствует мощный отток капитала.Учитывая замедление китайской экономики (а это процесс неизбежный, о чем я много писал) перед китайскими властями стоит основной вопрос как сделать переход более плавным, избежав жесткой посадки. Для этого есть:Госинвестиции и кредиты. Здесь уже давно такой перебор, что продолжать дальше политику последних 7-8 лет практически невозможно. Хотя власти уже просигнализировали о расширении инвестиций в инфраструктуру на 1 трлн юаней, но это в масштабах всей экономики относительно немного. Усердствовать дальше здесь крайне рискованно, да и невозможно долго так поддерживать экономику размером в $11 трлн.Смягчение монетарной политики. Учитывая низкую потребительскую инфляцию (1-2%), дефляцию цен производителей (-5.4%) и падение ресурсных цен, возможностей здесь море. Смягчение уже происходит – с осени прошлого года НБК снизил ставку с 6% до 4.85% и продолжит её снижать. Снижены резервные требования к банкам с 21.5% на максимумах до 18.5%, и они продолжат снижаться. Постепенно НБК начинает предоставлять ликвидность банкам и это ему придется делать все активнее, т.к. замедление темпов роста номинальных доходов и снижение ставок будут негативно влиять на депозитную базу банков, что может крайне негативно сказаться и на кредитах.Ослабление контроля курса юаня. «Отпускает» юань Китай в ситуации, когда риски укрепления юаня крайне низки, а некоторое его ослабление поддержит экспортеров, но не сильно скажется на инфляции в условиях падения импортных цен на ресурсы. Китай сделал курсообразование более свободным, чего так хотели в МВФ и многие представители развитых стран, кстати МВФ первый уже поддержал это решение.Сделал НБК этот шаг тогда, когда самим китайцам этот шаг будет нужен (кто-то сомневался, что будет иначе?), в общем-то они сделали это во многом потому, что риска укрепления юаня сейчас нет по ряду причин:1. Реальный эффективный курс юаня на исторических максимумах и вырос за последний год на 14%.2. НБК и ФРС проводят разнонаправленную монетарную политику, ЦБ Китая перешел к политике стимулирования и будет её продолжать, ФРС же мечтает начать повышение ставок (но пока боится это сделать в связи с унылым состоянием экономики, в том числе и по причине сильного доллара и страхом обвалить рынки). Т.к. шансы на включение юаня в корзину валют МВФ (СДР) низки (практически ясно, что США заблокируют эту инициативу).3. Отчасти по причине расхождения монетарных политик НБК и ФРС, отчасти по причине активной внешней экспансии китайских капиталов, в последние кварталы наблюдается мощный отток капитала из Китая, что даже привело к необходимости расходовать резервы на поддержку курса ($88 млрд за последние 4 квартала и 110 млрд за последние $2 квартала).Как и у еврозоны у Китая рекордное сальдо торгового баланса и $288 млрд в год положительное сальдо текущего счета, но отток капитала (~$376 млрд за последние 4 квартала) все это перекрывает. У еврозоны тоже рекордный за все время её существования торговый баланс и текущий счет … а курс евро за последний год упал на 20% на волне бегства капиталов :). Почему кто-то решил, что юань должен расти? Китай становится одним из основных экспортеров капитала, а это означает отток капитала и давление не курс. Для самого Китая в этом процессе очень желательно, чтобы этот отток капитала сопровождался существенным ростом использования юаня (расчеты, фондирование, кредитование и т.п., которые бы «связывали» эмиссию юаня).Риск для Китая – это потерять доверие внутренних инвесторов и резидентов (не привыкших к волатильным колебаниям своей валюты), у которых на счетах в банках более 130 трлн юаней (>$20 трлн), вывод части которых из юаня может сильно урезать даже огромные китайские резервы и подорвать кредитование, обвалив финсистему и экономику. Именно потому НБК не может позволить себе существенной девальвации (более 5-10%) и будет стремиться не допускать сильного падения курса, чрезмерной волатильности и потери доверия (интервенциями и административными мерами).В последние дни на рынке курсируют мнения в стиле "девальвация юаня снизит спрос на ресурсы" - это бред, потому как цены на ресурсы рухнули на 30-60%, а снижение юаня вряд ли пока превысит 10% (большее падение может привести к повышенным рискам и сильному давлению со стороны США, ЕС и пр.). Снижение спроса на ресурсы может быть если экономика Китая пойдет на жесткую посадку, а именно этого пытается не допустить НБК своими действми.P.S.: Будет интересно посмотреть реакцию Минфина США и ФРС на китайские движения, совсем недавно они пеняли на недооцененность юаня…P.P.S.: Истерика в оффшорном юане (CNH) – это результат ошибочных ожиданий многих западных фондов относительно перспектив юаня после перехода к рыночному курсообразованию… многие набирали инвестиции в юанях с мечтами о его росте (отчасти по причине вечного нудения Минфина США о недооцененности юаня).

11 августа 2015, 11:54

Китай девальвировал юань // Решение ЦБ КНР последовало за отказом МВФ признать китайскую валюту резервной

Народный банк Китая сегодня объявил о девальвации национальной валюты почти на 2%. В результате юань достиг низшей за почти три года отметки по отношению к доллару. Эксперты полагают, что решение о девальвации национальной валюты было принято с учетом негативных показателей: сокращения экспорта, замедления темпов роста экономики, а также после того, как всякие надежды на официальное придание юаню статуса резервной валюты были разрушены.

11 августа 2015, 09:06

Девальвация юаня: Китай вступил в валютную войну

Ситуация в экономике и внешние факторы просто не оставляют властям Китая иного выбора, кроме как присоединиться к мировым валютным войнам. И Пекин, судя по всему, станет очень активным игроком.

24 июля 2015, 12:18

Китай расширит торговый диапазон юаня к доллару

Китайские власти намерены расширить торговый диапазон юаня к доллару США, сообщает агентство Bloomberg со ссылкой на заявление Госсовета КНР. В нем отмечается, что гибкость курса юаня будет увеличена, однако не уточняется, когда и насколько будет расширен торговый коридор. В целом обменный курс юаня будет удерживаться на стабильном уровне. В настоящее время рыночный курс юаня может отклоняться от официального справочного...

17 июля 2015, 13:47

Россия и Китай взяли серьёзный курс на дедолларизацию экономики

Россия готовится сделать ещё один серьёзный шаг к освобождению рубля от долларовой системы. Министерство финансов РФ недавно сделало сообщение о намерении брать государственные займы в китайских юанях. Это — лучший способ избавиться от зависимости и шантажа со стороны Казначейства США, финансирующего терроризм, и в то же время укрепить связи с Китаем. Это и есть самый страшный геополитический кошмар Вашингтона.

27 мая 2015, 17:03

Программа "Геоэкономика" от 27 мая 2015 года

Программа "Геоэкономика" от 27 мая 2015 года Успехи китайской экономики последних лет отразились на курсе национальной валюты. С марта 2010 года юань подорожал на 33% к основным мировым валютам. А в 2014-м он стал пятым по популярности в операциях международной торговли. Будьте в курсе самых актуальных новостей! Подписывайтесь на офиц. канал Россия24: http://bit.ly/subscribeRussia24TV Вести недели с Д.Киселёвым - http://bit.ly/VestiNedeli2015 Вести в субботу - http://bit.ly/VestiSubbota2015 Большие вести в 20:00 - http://bit.ly/Vesti20-00-2015 Воскресный вечер с В.Соловьёвым - http://bit.ly/VoskresnyVecher Специальный корреспондент - http://bit.ly/SpecKor Последние новости - http://bit.ly/LastNews1 АвтоВести - http://bit.ly/AvtoVesti Интервью - http://bit.ly/InterviewPL Реплика - http://bit.ly/Replika2015 Авторские передачи Н.Михалкова - http://bit.ly/Besogon Россия и мир в цифрах - http://bit.ly/Grafiki Hi-Tech - http://bit.ly/Hi-TecH Вести.net - http://bit.ly/Vesti-net Наука - http://bit.ly/NaukaNovosti Документальные фильмы - http://bit.ly/DocumentalFilms Познавательные фильмы - http://bit.ly/EducationalFilm Программа "Геоэкономика" от 27 мая 2015 года https://youtu.be/sSS88I7BZJE

24 мая 2015, 03:53

В Китае создали Золотой фонд Шелкового пути, масштабы которого могут достичь 100 млрд юаней

Сиань, 23 мая /Синьхуа/ -- В пятницу в китайском городе Сиане открылись сразу две структуры, связанные с реализацией концепции "пояса и пути": Общество стимулирования операций с золотом и Золотой фонд Шелкового пути. Эксперты отмечают, что фонд поможет странам, вовлеченным в инициативы новых Шелковых путей, интегрировать свои ресурсы золота в общее пространство и укрепить сотрудничество на рынках этого драгоценного металла. Идею создания Золотого фонда предложила Шанхайская биржа золота, а учредителями стали крупные китайские предприятия -- Шаньдунская и Шэньсийская корпорации золота. Фонд планирует открыть несколько дочерних фондов, в том числе торгуемый на бирже фонд, фонд поглощения и слияния ресурсов золота, инвестиционный фонд. Планируется, что новая структура станет наиболее крупным в стране фондом, работающим с золотом. При общем ожидаемом масштабе примерно в 100 млрд юаней, фонд проведет три эмиссии, первая из которых будет на 5 млрд юаней, вторая -- на 30 млрд юаней. Многие азиатские страны, расположенные на новых Шелковых путях, обладают большими запасами золота и могут быть крупными потребителями золота. Операции с золотом могут стать важной составляющей торгового взаимодействия Китая с другими странами. Синьхуа Золотой банк. Ни больше ни меньше... А ещё напомню, что в начале мая подписали о сотрудничестве Полюс Золота и China National Gold Group Corporation...  Сиань, 23 мая /Синьхуа/ -- В пятницу в китайском городе Сиане открылись сразу две структуры, связанные с реализацией концепции "пояса и пути": Общество стимулирования операций с золотом и Золотой фонд Шелкового пути. Эксперты отмечают, что фонд поможет странам, вовлеченным в инициативы новых Шелковых путей, интегрировать свои ресурсы золота в общее пространство и укрепить сотрудничество на рынках этого драгоценного металла. Идею создания Золотого фонда предложила Шанхайская биржа золота, а учредителями стали крупные китайские предприятия -- Шаньдунская и Шэньсийская корпорации золота. Фонд планирует открыть несколько дочерних фондов, в том числе торгуемый на бирже фонд, фонд поглощения и слияния ресурсов золота, инвестиционный фонд. Планируется, что новая структура станет наиболее крупным в стране фондом, работающим с золотом. При общем ожидаемом масштабе примерно в 100 млрд юаней, фонд проведет три эмиссии, первая из которых будет на 5 млрд юаней, вторая -- на 30 млрд юаней. Многие азиатские страны, расположенные на новых Шелковых путях, обладают большими запасами золота и могут быть крупными потребителями золота. Операции с золотом могут стать важной составляющей торгового взаимодействия Китая с другими странами. Синьхуа Золотой банк. Ни больше ни меньше... А ещё напомню, что в начале мая подписали о сотрудничестве Полюс Золота и China National Gold Group Corporation...

18 мая 2015, 10:48

Как Китай окутал мир своп-линиями

На протяжении длительного времени мировая финансовая система периодически сталкивается с нехваткой долларового финансирования, и этим достаточно активно в посткризисный период пользуется Китай.

08 мая 2015, 17:33

Китайско-российские соглашения

Крупнейший госбанк РФ Сбербанк подписал соглашение об открытии кредитной линии на 6 миллиардов юаней с Государственным банком развития Китая.