Юань http://so-l.ru/tags/show/yuan Wed, 12 Dec 2018 13:56:48 +0300 <![CDATA[Highly Deficient Thinking about Trade]]>

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal:

Debra Summers complains that “While it is true that some portion of foreign-trade-generated capital investment will return to expand the U.S. economy and create U.S. jobs, there is no guarantee that our trading partners won’t prioritize use of their trade profits to more effectively compete with the U.S. or for actions that otherwise jeopardize U.S. interests” (Letters, Nov. 30).

Putting aside the use of dollars to purchase weapons of war aimed at Americans, Ms. Summers is mistaken. There is indeed such a guarantee. It exists chiefly because U.S. dollars have value only because they can be spent or invested in the U.S.

Foreigners who, say, use dollars to build factories in China – even ones that will compete against American factories – must first convert those dollars into yuan. But why does a Chinese bank accept dollars in exchange for the yuan that it gives to the builder of the factory? The answer is that the bank’s customers want dollars in order to spend or invest in the U.S. Therefore, contrary to Ms. Summers’s suggestion, nearly all dollars on the U.S. current-account deficit do most certainly return to the U.S. as investments.

The only exception are dollars that foreigners hold indefinitely (although even these are accounted as being invested in America). But this particular use of dollars unambiguously enriches us Americans and impoverishes foreigners. In exchange for these dollars, foreigners give us valuable goods and services – many of which are inputs used by American firms – while foreigners get and keep lots of monochrome portraits of dead American statesmen.

A final point: foreigners using their trade profits to more effectively compete with the U.S. is good, not bad, for America. Not only does this competition ensure that American buyers pay the lowest possible prices, it also inspires American producers to innovate with a gusto and determination that they’d lack in the absence of this competition.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_01_highly_deficient_thinking_about_trade Sat, 01 Dec 2018 03:32:09 +0300
<![CDATA[Fed & FOMO Rescue Stocks But Bond Yields, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Collapse]]> Trump better deliver...

China stocks eked out a modest gain on the week thanks to a late Friday liftathon ahead of this weekend's uncertainty...

 

But Shanghai Composite closed down on the month (2nd month lower in a row)

 

European markets were oddly quiet all week aside from the buying panic at the open on Monday...(but Italy handily outperformed)

But on the month, a mixed bag with Italy and Spain green and the rest of the majors red...

 

US equities soared on the week, with Nasdaq up 5.6% leading - the best week since Dec 2011...

 

Trannies soared in November and thanks to the last few days of Powell and Trade hope, stocks were rescued from another ugly month...

 

On the day, equity moves were dominated by optimistic headlines from Buenos Aires from both Trump and Xi sources...

 

Best week for S&P since Dec 2011 and barekly managed to get above its 50DMA...

 

November was all about two big short-squeezes...

 

Goldman Sachs plunged again today to fresh 2-year lows, erasing all post-Trump gains - worst month since Sept 2011

 

FANG Stocks closed lower for the 3rd month in a row...(longest losing streak since Feb 2016)... despite panic-buying this last week...best week since January

 

Credit markets tumbled for the 2nd month in a row - the worst 2-month drop since Jan 2016 for HY and IG (wider for 4 straight months). IG Credit compressed 5bps this week - best week since June (and HY CDX biggest weekly spread compression since February).

 

Bonds and Stocks were bid in the last hour today...

 

Extending their divergence post-Powell...

 

On the week, 2s and 30s are unchanged with the belly lower in yield...

 

Treasury yields tumbled in November - 10Y yields dropped over 13bps - the biggest monthly drop since Aug 2017

10Y Yields closed the week with a 3.00% handle...

 

The short-end of the UST yield curve collapsed in November (biggest flattening since March)...7th flatter month in the last 9 (note that the curve accelerated its flattening post 10/17 FOMC Mins from Sept, and after the 11/08 FOMC statement)...

 

with 2s5s almost inverted

The dollar index ended the month practically unchanged (hovering at its highest since May 2017)

 

It was a serious rollercoaster ride of a week as Powell's dovishness pummeled the dollar and pre-G20 trade chatter seemed to spark buying...

 

Bitcoin was down for the 5th week in a row but the 37% collapse in November is the worst month since August 2011 (Bitcoin Cash fell 60% on the month as it forked)

 

With Bitcoin back below $4000 to end the week...

 

Copper and Gold managed gains on the month, silver small losses, but crude collapsed...

 

Gold managed to close higher for the 2nd month in a row

 

But was unchanged against the yuan...

 

But WTI collapsed to its worst month since 2008...

 

Blowing back below $50 again today before spurious old news OPEC headlines sparked another ramp...

 

As it seems 5 Oz of Silver for a barrel of WTI Crude was just too much again...

 

Finally, we note that rate-hike expectations for 2019 have now collapsed to less than one!! just 22.25bps for the year (The Fed is still at 3 or 4 hikes)...

And as Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, this hypersensitive market is anything but healthy...

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_01_fed_fomo_rescue_stocks_but_bond_yields Sat, 01 Dec 2018 00:01:14 +0300
<![CDATA[Market Chatter About Rise Of 'Petro-Yuan' Misses Mark By Several Trillion Dollars]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_market_chatter_about_rise_of_apos_petro Fri, 30 Nov 2018 22:05:00 +0300 <![CDATA[Новости экономики за 30.11.2018]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_novosti_ekonomiki_za_30_11_2018 Fri, 30 Nov 2018 20:58:05 +0300 <![CDATA[В Китае компания будет штрафовать сотрудников, которые не проходят 180 тысяч шагов в месяц]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_v_kitae_kompaniya_budet_shtrafovat_sotrud Fri, 30 Nov 2018 20:10:00 +0300 <![CDATA[Средний курс юаня со сроком расчетов "завтра" по итогам торгов составил 9,5996 руб.]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_sredniy_kurs_yuanya_so_srokom_raschetov_za Fri, 30 Nov 2018 19:15:00 +0300 <![CDATA[USD/CNH: юань ждет разочарование]]>

 
 
USD/CNH  
Стратегия совершения сделки
Направление сделки
Покупка
Вход (цена открытия)
6,9350
Цель (цена закрытия)
6,9560
Stop Loss
6,9240
Горизонт
до 19.00 мск 03.12.2018*

- Деловая активность в производственной сфере Китая замедлилась. Показатель находится на пограничной отметке между зоной роста и зоной спада – 50

- Рынки ждут встречи лидеров США и Китая на полях саммита G20 в Аргентине

- Есть шансы на то, что торговый конфликт между странами не будет разрешен и США введут дополнительные пошлины на товары из Поднебесной

- Котировки пары удерживаются выше  50-дневной скользящей средней

Параметры сделки

Необходимо открыть сделку в Libertex на покупку USD/CNH по цене 6,9350 не позднее 03.12.2018 10:00 мск.

png_321.
 
В случае негативного развития ситуации убыток не превысит 1,7%.

Если вы хотите получить размер позиции, мультипликатора, потенциальной прибыли и убытка для Libertex, подключайтесь к сервису Утро с Forex Club.

* Если сделка не закрылась по ордерам (take-profit, stop-loss), рекомендуем закрыть вручную не позднее указанной даты.

Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата.

 

доллар, юань, Трамп, Цзиньпин, форекс клуб
USDCNH
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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_usd_cnh_yuan_zhdet_razocharovanie Fri, 30 Nov 2018 16:23:39 +0300
<![CDATA[Средний курс юаня со сроком расчетов "сегодня" по итогам торгов составил 9,5621 руб.]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_sredniy_kurs_yuanya_so_srokom_raschetov_se Fri, 30 Nov 2018 11:00:00 +0300 <![CDATA[Рынок онлайн-видео Китая в 2018 г. превысит $29 млрд]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_rinok_onlayn_video_kitaya_v_2018_g_previ Fri, 30 Nov 2018 11:00:00 +0300 <![CDATA[Повышен беспошлинный лимит покупок на Хайнане]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_povishen_besposhlinniy_limit_pokupok_na_ha Fri, 30 Nov 2018 09:00:00 +0300 <![CDATA[Trade 'Hopes' & Fed 'Nopes' Send Stocks, Bonds, & Black Gold To Critical Levels]]> The last 24 hours or so have been headline-heavy for traders as every "Trade", "Trump", "G20", or "Fed" note sparks chaos across a now uncorrelated markets that are hypersensitive - but critical levels were obvious targets today:

  • Dow/S&P at critical technical levels (key moving averages and YTD levels)

  • 10Y Treasury Yield below 3.00% intraday

  • WTI Crude below $50 intraday

For now the moves are not life-threatening...

But the gap risk into this weekend's tape-bomb turmoil has prompted short-term VIX to be bid despite surging stocks...

 

Overnight was ugly in China (despite US exuberance)...

 

European Stocks continued to go nowhere after their opening gap on Monday...

 

Overnight saw weakness in US futures too - and crappy data and a cash market open along with China trade hope headlines prompted a quick panic buy, a fade on Navarro news, a big pump after Fed Minutes, then a fade into the close...

 

Trannies underperformed on the cash side but all the major faded into the close after pumping green post-Fed Minutes...but they all ended red with a notably ugly close...

 

But, notably, in the US, Stocks were the only asset-class to move post-Fed Minutes as Gold, Stocks, and Bonds all went nowhere...

Before giving it all back into the close...

 

Dow broke above its 50/100/200 DMAs...then faded back below...

 

S&P stalled at its 50/200DMA...

 

Treasury yields tumbled overnight (after going nowhere amid yesterday's surge in stocks), then v-shape-recovered higher (ending the day lower in yield though)...

 

10Y broke below 3.00% (for the first time since Sept 18th)...

 

Before Treasury selling surged...

 

Expectations for Fed actions next year have collapsed to less than one rate hike...

 

The Dollar Index went nowhere on the day, oscillating around yesterday's Powell plunge lows...

 

As the dollar trod water, so did offshore yuan hovering around its PBOC fix...

 

Cryptos faded broadly but Bitcoin managed to get back into the green for the week briefly...

 

Vol remains insane in the crude complex...

 

WTI Crude tumbled back below $50 for the first time since October 2017... then was panic bid by the machines up to the $52 stops... then faded...

 

Finally, it looks like The Fed broke it...

And you know what they say - you break it, you buy it - so next comes QE?

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_trade_hopes_fed_nopes_send_stocks Fri, 30 Nov 2018 00:01:22 +0300
<![CDATA[Stocks Rebound On WSJ Report China, US "Exploring Deal" To Ease Tensions]]> While it should hardly come as a surprise that just two days ahead of a meeting between the US and China seeking to resolve and defuse trade tensions, the two sides are, well, seeking to resolve and defuse trade tensions (and boost markets) and are "exploring a trade deal in which Washington would suspend further tariffs through the spring in exchange for new talks looking at big changes in Chinese economic policy", which is what the WSJ reported moments ago and what the market is responding to, providing a modest bid to stocks following the earlier G-20 negative news that Peter Navarro is back on the Trump-Xi dinner list.

As the WSJ notes, "the talks have been conducted, via telephone, for several weeks, and are coming to a head shortly before President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet for dinner on Saturday at the end of the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Buenos Aires."

New talks would focus on what both sides are calling trade “architecture,” a broad term that could encompass many issues the U.S. has wanted Beijing to address, including intellectual property protection, coerced technology transfer, subsidies to state-owned enterprises, and even non-trade issues such as cyber-espionage.

But, as the WSJ cautions, "it is far from clear whether the discussions will produce any agreement."

Furthermore, it isn’t clear what specifics the U.S. is asking for or what Beijing is willing to entertain. One offer, according to Chinese officials: in return for the suspension of U.S. tariffs, Beijing would agree to lift restrictions on China’s purchases of U.S. farm and energy products.

Such a deal would follow the model of partial agreements the U.S. has cut in recent months with the European Union and Japan, U.S. officials said. In those deals, the U.S. agreed not to levy more tariffs—in those cases, tariffs on automobiles—while the two sides negotiated over specific areas. With Japan, for example, Tokyo agreed that any deal would increase automobile production and jobs in the U.S, while Washington agreed not to press Tokyo for more concessions on agriculture than Japan had previously allowed free-trade partners.

As Nomura's McElligott notes, in the context of the Cohen headlines, Trump may be more eager to getting a favorable, actionable outcome than the "we had a great meeting" or "agreement to work on a framework" conclusion. On the other hand, some have noted that a tariff pause means little for yuan currency control as the PBOC is already doing that with yuan at 7.00.

Furthermore, there has been "chatter" that the meeting went from a 90 min 1-on-1 and was "downgraded" to a 60 min working dinner.

Still, the algo kneejerk reaction was prompt, and after hitting session lows earlier on the Navarro news, the S&P has since rebounded and has cut its losses in half... at least until the next negative headline or FOMC minutes.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_stocks_rebound_on_wsj_report_china_us Thu, 29 Nov 2018 19:54:34 +0300
<![CDATA[Средний курс юаня со сроком расчетов "завтра" по итогам торгов составил 9,5947 руб.]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_sredniy_kurs_yuanya_so_srokom_raschetov_za Thu, 29 Nov 2018 19:15:00 +0300 <![CDATA[Китайский миллиардер разорил свою компанию в казино]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_kitayskiy_milliarder_razoril_svoyu_kompan Thu, 29 Nov 2018 17:17:00 +0300 <![CDATA[Сторчак: Минфин разместит евробонды в юанях, когда будет нужно]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_storchak_minfin_razmestit_evrobondi_v_yua Thu, 29 Nov 2018 17:02:00 +0300 <![CDATA[Сторчак: Минфин разместит евробонды в юанях, когда будет нужно]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_banki_ru_lenta_novostey_storchak_minfin Thu, 29 Nov 2018 17:02:00 +0300 <![CDATA[В Китае сдалась полиции «самая красивая преступница»]]> Прозванная «самой красивой преступницей страны» китаянка сдалась правоохранительным органам, сообщил South China Morning Post.

«В том, чтобы быть красивой, нет ничего плохого, но использовать свою внешность для совершения преступлений неправильно», – прокомментировали задержание девушки в полиции.

Жительница Китая Цинчэнь Цзинцзин разыскивалась правоохранительными органами по подозрению в мошенничестве. Она стала популярной в Китае после того, как полиция опубликовала ее фотографию, пишет РИА «Новости».

По данным следствия, Цзинцзин состояла в преступной группировке, которая занималась мошенничеством в барах и чайных домах в городе Мяньян провинции Сычуань. Банда действовала больше полугода.

Выйти на след преступников удалось после того, как в полицию обратился один из пострадавших от действий преступной группировки, который лишился нескольких тысяч юаней.

Отмечается, что вместе с «самой красивой преступницей» Китая сдались четыре ее подельника. Двое подозреваемых по-прежнему продолжают скрываться от следствия.

Напомним, в 2015 году суд США вынес приговор за незаконное хранение оружия «самому красивому преступнику» 31-летнему Джереми Миксу, который также стал известен благодаря публикации его фотографии полицией Калифорнии.

Микс получил предложение от модельного агентства на 30 тыс. долларов в месяц, когда еще находился в тюрьме. Позже «самый красивый преступник» снялся в клипе российской артистки Ольги Бузовой.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_v_kitae_sdalas_policii_samaya_krasivaya Thu, 29 Nov 2018 16:59:51 +0300
<![CDATA[«ВТБ Капитал» ожидает роста размещений евробондов компаний РФ в евро и офшорных юанях]]> «Многие корпорации, которые могут размещать долговые обязательства...]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_vtb_kapital_ozhidaet_rosta_razmesheniy_e Thu, 29 Nov 2018 15:32:10 +0300 <![CDATA[Юань и рубль – оружие против гегемонии американского доллара]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_yuan_i_rubl_oruzhie_protiv_gegemonii_a Thu, 29 Nov 2018 12:53:05 +0300 <![CDATA[Китай существенно снизил цены на бензин и дизельное топливо]]> Пекин, 17 ноября /Синьхуа/ -- Китай снизил цены на бензин и дизельное топливо. С 24 часов 16 ноября стоимость тонны бензина снижается на 510 юаней, дизельного топлива - на 490 юаней /1 ам. долл. - 6,9 юаня/, говорится в сообщении Государственного комитета по делам развития и реформ. Это будет самое значительное снижение за последние 4 года. После нынешнего пересмотра цены на бензин и дизельное топливо подешевели примерно на 4 цзяо /10 цзяо равняются одному юаню/ за литр. В Госкомитете по делам развития и реформ заявили о необходимости для трех крупнейших нефтяных компаний страны - Петрочайна, Синопек и CNOOC - эффективно организовать производство и перевозки топлива, обеспечивая устойчивые поставки и соблюдая ценовую политику государства.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_oko_planeti_kitay_sushestven Thu, 29 Nov 2018 11:55:09 +0300
<![CDATA[Средний курс юаня со сроком расчетов "сегодня" по итогам торгов составил 9,6271 руб.]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_29_sredniy_kurs_yuanya_so_srokom_raschetov_se Thu, 29 Nov 2018 11:00:00 +0300